Hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in professional sports. That isn’t just some dusty cliché your Little League coach used to say. It is a statistical reality that has become increasingly grim over the last decade. If you feel like you’re seeing more strikeouts and fewer baserunners when you turn on a game, you aren’t imagining things. But something weird happened recently.
For the first time in what feels like forever, the downward spiral of mlb hits per game actually flicked back upward.
In 2024, the league-wide batting average sat at a sluggish .243. It was one of the lowest marks since the "Year of the Pitcher" in 1968. Fans were getting restless. But as we moved through the 2025 season, the numbers started to tell a different story. By mid-summer 2025, the league was averaging roughly 8.26 hits per game. For context, that actually outpaced the strikeout rate (8.25 per game) for the first time in eight years.
It’s a tiny gap. A sliver of hope. But for a sport that has been defined by the "Three True Outcomes"—home runs, walks, and strikeouts—seeing actual contact return to the diamond is a big deal.
Why MLB Hits Per Game Bottomed Out
To understand where we’re going, you’ve gotta look at why the hits vanished in the first place. Honestly, it's a "perfect storm" of physics and math.
First, pitchers aren't human anymore. In 2002, if a guy threw 95 mph, he was a flamethrower. In 2025, if you throw 95, you’re basically just a guy with a job in the bullpen. We’re seeing more than 200 pitchers league-wide who can average 95+ on their heater. When the ball is moving that fast, the margin for error for a hitter is practically zero.
Then there’s the "tunneling" effect. Pitchers have gotten so good at making a slider look exactly like a fastball until the last ten feet. By the time a batter realizes the ball is diving into the dirt, they’ve already committed to a swing.
The shift also played a massive role for years. You’d see a lefty crush a line drive into short right field—a guaranteed hit for 100 years of baseball—only to find a second baseman standing right there. It was soul-crushing for hitters.
- Pitch Velocity: Up from an average of 91 mph in 2008 to over 94 mph today.
- Spin Rates: Average slider spin has jumped from roughly 2,100 RPM to nearly 2,500 RPM.
- Strategy: Teams realized that strikeouts don't advance runners, so they started training pitchers to hunt the "K" at all costs.
The Rule Changes are Actually Working
MLB finally got tired of the "strikeout-or-bust" era and started tinkering with the soul of the game. They banned the shift. They made the bases bigger. They added a pitch clock.
You’d think the shift ban would have caused an immediate explosion in mlb hits per game, but the data shows it was more of a slow burn. Left-handed hitters saw a modest nine-point bump in their batting average on balls in play (BABIP) almost immediately. But the real change has been psychological.
The pitch clock, which many thought would only help pitchers, has actually started to wear them down. Pitchers can’t stand on the mound for 40 seconds between every high-leverage throw anymore. They’re tired. And a tired pitcher leaves balls over the middle of the plate.
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In 2025, we saw the Toronto Blue Jays leading the charge, racking up over 9 hits per game. They weren't just swinging for the fences; they were putting the ball in play. Even teams like the Phillies and Red Sox stayed consistently above the 8.6 hits-per-game mark, proving that the offensive floor is slowly rising.
The "Three True Outcomes" Fatigue
We’ve spent the last decade obsessed with "Launch Angle" and "Exit Velocity." If you weren't hitting the ball 110 mph at a 25-degree angle, you were doing it wrong.
But fans—and some front offices—are getting bored of the home-run-or-nothing approach. There’s a new appreciation for guys like Luis Arraez or Bobby Witt Jr., players who prioritize contact and speed.
Watching someone take a 99 mph sinker and poke it through the 5.5 hole is becoming "cool" again.
Hits vs. Runs: The Disconnect
It is important to remember that more hits don't always mean a higher score. In 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres tied for the highest team batting average at .263. Yet, the Dodgers and Yankees scored more runs because they relied on the "long ball."
That’s the tension in the modern game. Do you want the 8.5 hits per game that lead to "small ball" rallies, or do you want the 7.5 hits per game where three of them are home runs?
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What This Means for the Future of the Box Score
If the 2025 trends hold into the 2026 season, we’re looking at a much healthier version of baseball. The era where strikeouts outnumbered hits every single night appears to be behind us.
We’re seeing a shift toward athleticism. With the bigger bases and limited pickoff attempts, a single is now essentially a double if the runner has any speed at all. This incentivizes hitters to just "get on" rather than swinging out of their shoes every time.
Actionable Insights for Following the Trend:
- Watch the "Hits vs. K" Ratio: Keep an eye on the daily league leaders. If the league stays above 8.2 hits per game, the "Pitcher Era" is officially receding.
- Track Left-Handed BABIP: The shift ban has its biggest impact here. Watch lefties who used to be "shift victims" (like Corey Seager or Anthony Rizzo) to see if their hit totals continue to climb.
- Ignore the "BA" in Isolation: Don't just look at batting average. Look at Hits Per Game (H/G) for teams. A team can have a high average but low hit totals if they don't see many pitches.
- Focus on the 3rd Time Through: With the pitch clock, watch how many hits occur in the 6th and 7th innings. This is where pitchers are gassing out, and hitters are feasting.
The game is changing. It's becoming faster, more chaotic, and—thankfully—more centered on putting the bat on the ball. We might never see the .300 league-wide averages of the 1920s again, but the days of the "hitless game" are finally starting to fade.