Baseball is a sport built on routine, but this winter has been anything but predictable. If you haven’t checked the wire lately, the depth charts for the upcoming season look like someone put the 2025 rosters into a blender. It’s wild. Superstars who felt like "lifers" are wearing new threads, and the sheer volume of high-leverage movement is basically rewriting the power balance in both leagues. Honestly, trying to pin down MLB projected starting lineups right now feels a bit like trying to catch a 100-mph fastball with a thimble.
Everything changes fast. One day Pete Alonso is the heart of Queens, and the next, he’s signing a five-year, $155 million deal to mash home runs in Baltimore. It’s a lot to process for fans who just want to know who is batting cleanup on Opening Day.
The Massive Shuffles in the American League
The AL East is usually a bloodbath, but 2026 is taking it to a different level. Look at the Baltimore Orioles. They didn't just add a bat; they added a tectonic shift. By slotting Pete Alonso into a lineup that already features Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, they’ve created a gauntlet that pitchers are going to hate. Steamer projections are already pegging Alonso for 35 home runs and over 100 RBIs. It’s scary.
Then you have the Red Sox. Boston went out and traded for Sonny Gray to lead a rotation that desperately needed a veteran anchor. At 36, Gray might not be the flame-thrower he once was, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he’s still elite at missing barrels. He’s projected to sit right behind Garrett Crochet in what is suddenly a very respectable 1-2 punch.
- Toronto Blue Jays: They pulled the trigger on a Dylan Cease trade. Cease is projected for 216 strikeouts. That’s top-tier production.
- Chicago White Sox: They’re in a weird spot, but signing Munetaka Murakami from Japan is a fascinating "swing for the fences" move. Two years, $34 million for a guy who broke records in the NPB.
- New York Yankees: Aaron Judge is still the king. Projections have him hitting 45 homers with a staggering .588 slugging percentage.
The Seattle Mariners are also making noise. Cal Raleigh is projected to lead all catchers in homers again, likely pushing near the 40-mark. If Julio Rodríguez bounces back to his 2023 form, that Seattle lineup is going to be a problem for the AL West.
💡 You might also like: The Michael Jordan Meme Trophy: How the GOAT Finally Became a Digital Award
Why the National League Infield Looks So Different
If you thought the AL moves were big, the National League just said, "Hold my Gatorade." Alex Bregman leaving Houston felt impossible until the Chicago Cubs handed him $175 million. The North Side finally has that proven, high-IQ leader at third base. Bregman brings a championship pedigree to a Cubs lineup that spent most of last year looking for an identity.
The Arizona Diamondbacks also decided they weren't done contending. They snagged Nolan Arenado from the Cardinals. Sure, the metrics say his range is dipping a bit, but he’s still got 10 Gold Gloves. Having Arenado at the hot corner and Corbin Carroll in the outfield makes the D-backs' defense one of the best in the majors.
The Dodgers' Bullpen Flex
The Dodgers are the Dodgers. They just won back-to-back World Series and decided the best way to celebrate was by signing Edwin Díaz to a $69 million contract. It’s almost unfair. When you have a projected lineup that starts with Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, and then you add the most dominant closer in the game to shorten the game to eight innings, you're playing a different sport than everyone else.
🔗 Read more: Who Playing Monday Night Football Tomorrow: The NFC North Battle You Can’t Miss
Understanding the "Art" of the Depth Chart
Projecting a lineup isn't just about listing the nine best players. Managers are obsessed with splits. You’ll see teams like the Tampa Bay Rays or the San Francisco Giants carry "platoon" heavy rosters where the starting nine against a lefty looks nothing like the one against a righty.
Take the Diamondbacks’ current projection for 2026. They have Pavin Smith and Alek Thomas listed as "Platoon vs RHP," while James McCann and Jorge Barrosa are expected to draw starts primarily against lefties. It’s a chess match. If you’re trying to predict these things, you have to look at the bench as much as the starters.
The Role of Prospect Steam
We’re also seeing a youth movement that’s messing with veteran playing time. In Oakland (or wherever the Athletics are playing this week), Nick Kurtz basically forced his way into the 1B/DH conversation after hitting like a prime Aaron Judge during his call-up. When a rookie produces like that, the "projected" veteran becomes a trade chip or a bench piece overnight.
What Most People Get Wrong About Lineup Projections
People tend to look at last year's stats and assume they'll repeat. That’s a mistake. Age curves are real. A 34-year-old infielder losing half a step of range can turn a 4-WAR player into a 1-WAR player in a single offseason.
Also, health is the great equalizer. The Minnesota Twins have one of the most talented rosters on paper with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis. But how many games will they actually play together? Projections usually bake in some "injury tax," which is why a team's total projected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) often looks lower than fans expect.
Actionable Steps for Following the Roster Changes
If you want to stay ahead of the curve and actually understand how these rosters are forming, don't just look at the back of a baseball card.
- Monitor the 40-man roster crunch: Teams have to make tough decisions on prospects to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. This often leads to "2-for-1" trades where a team consolidated talent.
- Watch the "Service Time" manipulation: Some top prospects won't appear in the MLB projected starting lineups for April but will magically appear in mid-May once an extra year of team control is secured.
- Follow the "Steamer" and "ZiPS" updates: These are the gold standards for mathematical projections. They updated almost daily as trades and signings happen.
- Check the Spring Training battle reports: The 5th starter spot and the last bench bat are almost always decided in the final week of March based on "feel" and spring performance.
The 2026 season is shaping up to be a year of massive offensive totals, especially with the way the Orioles and Cubs have beefed up their middle-of-the-order. Keep an eye on the waiver wire as we get closer to February; the "final" version of these lineups is usually settled by a random trade on a Tuesday morning that nobody saw coming.