The baseball world is currently fixated on a few massive names, but honestly, the 2025-2026 offseason is weirder than people think. Everyone is looking at the dollar signs attached to the biggest stars while ignoring the fact that the middle of the market is where the real chaos is happening. We’re deep into January 2026, and while some "locks" have finally found homes, the remaining talent pool for the MLB top 50 free agents is surprisingly deep and, frankly, a bit desperate.
Teams are starting to realize that waiting might actually be a winning strategy this year.
The Big Dominoes Have Finally Tumbled
It felt like it took forever, but the top of the mountain is starting to clear. Just a few days ago, on January 10, Alex Bregman finally ended the speculation by signing a five-year, $175 million deal with the Chicago Cubs. It’s a massive statement for a Cubs team that’s clearly tired of finishing second. Bregman had a short-lived stint in Boston, but he’s heading to Wrigley now to be the veteran anchor they’ve lacked.
Then you have Ranger Suárez. He just signed a five-year, $130 million contract with the Red Sox on January 14.
Think about that for a second.
Boston loses Bregman to Chicago and immediately pivots to the best lefty starter available. It’s a classic "win-now" swap. Suárez isn’t a fireballer, but his 3.20 ERA in 2025 proved that his command is elite. He joins a rotation that already has Garrett Crochet, making the Red Sox suddenly look very scary in the AL East.
Who is still out there?
The most glaring name on the board right now is Kyle Tucker. It’s kind of wild that we’re halfway through January and the consensus best player on the market hasn't signed. Tucker has been the model of consistency, putting up at least 4.0 fWAR for five straight seasons. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Mets have all been sniffing around, but nobody has pulled the trigger.
Maybe it’s the hand injury he dealt with in late 2025? Or maybe the asking price is just that astronomical.
Then there’s Bo Bichette. He’s coming off a rebound year where he slashed .311/.357/.483. He’s only 28. In a normal year, a shortstop with his hit tool would be gone by Christmas. But with the Blue Jays signing Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60 million deal, the door for a Bichette reunion in Toronto might be closing.
The Pitching Market is Getting Thin
If you need a front-of-the-rotation arm, your options are basically down to one name: Framber Valdez.
He’s the last man standing from the elite tier of starters. Dylan Cease already got his bag from the Blue Jays (seven years, $210 million), and Michael King stayed with the Padres on a three-year, $75 million extension. Valdez is 32, which scares some front offices, but he’s a horse. He’s averaged 192 innings over the last four years. If you don’t sign him now, you’re looking at "reclamation projects" like Walker Buehler or Jordan Montgomery, both of whom are looking for "prove-it" deals after shaky 2025 campaigns.
Making Sense of the MLB Top 50 Free Agents
To understand where the value lies, you have to look past the superstars. The "middle class" of this free agent cycle is actually where the most interesting moves are happening.
The Power Bats
Pete Alonso is already gone, having signed a five-year, $155 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. That’s a terrifying addition to a lineup that already has Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. But Kyle Schwarber also stayed put, re-signing with the Phillies for $150 million over five years.
So, who is left for teams needing a DH or first base thump?
- Eugenio Suárez: He hit 49 homers last year across two teams. He’s 34, but that power is real.
- Luis Arraez: The ultimate "anti-power" hitter. He’s a three-time batting champ who basically never strikes out.
- Josh Naylor: He actually signed a five-year, $92.5 million deal to stay with the Mariners earlier this winter, so he's off the board.
The Japanese Influx
We’ve seen a significant shift in how teams value international talent this winter. The Chicago White Sox made a huge splash by signing Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34 million deal. It’s a short-term gamble on elite power. Meanwhile, the Astros replaced the likely departing Valdez by grabbing Tatsuya Imai for three years and $54 million. Imai is 28 and has a 2.21 ERA over his last four years in Japan.
The Reliever Craze
Bullpens are getting expensive. Edwin Díaz got $69 million over three years from the Dodgers. Devin Williams landed with the Mets on a three-year, $51 million contract. If you’re a team like the Rangers or Tigers looking for a closer right now, you’re looking at Ryan Helsley (who went to the Orioles) or perhaps Robert Suarez (who joined the Braves). The remaining high-leverage arms are few and far between.
Misconceptions About the 2026 Market
A lot of people think this is a "weak" class. I disagree. It’s just a top-heavy class that has been slow to develop.
When you look at the MLB top 50 free agents, the depth is actually in the "innings eater" starters and the "utility" guys. Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, and Nick Martinez are all still available. These aren't guys who will win you a Cy Young, but they'll give you 160 league-average innings. In today's game, that's incredibly valuable.
Also, don't sleep on the older legends. Justin Verlander (43) and Max Scherzer (41) are still out there. They aren't the aces they used to be, but for a contender needing one more arm for a postseason run, they’re still viable options. Verlander spent last year with the Giants and showed he can still navigate a lineup, even if the velocity has dipped.
Current Status of Noteworthy Signings
Since lists can be boring, let's just look at how the landscape has shifted for some of the biggest names that have moved:
- Pete Alonso: Orioles (5 years, $155M) - A massive upgrade for Baltimore.
- Dylan Cease: Blue Jays (7 years, $210M) - The biggest pitching contract of the winter.
- Kyle Schwarber: Phillies (5 years, $150M) - Staying home in Philly.
- Alex Bregman: Cubs (5 years, $175M) - The new face of the North Side.
- Ranger Suárez: Red Sox (5 years, $130M) - Boston's new southpaw anchor.
- Kazuma Okamoto: Blue Jays (4 years, $60M) - Toronto adds more international thump.
What Happens Next?
If you're a fan of a team that hasn't spent yet, don't panic. The "B-tier" of free agency usually moves once the final "A-tier" guys (Tucker, Valdez, Bichette) sign.
The Yankees and Mets are still in a cold war over Cody Bellinger. He’s the ultimate fallback option because he can play elite defense in center field and at first base. His 5.0 WAR last year was his best since 2019. If the Yankees lose out on Tucker, expect them to pivot hard to Bellinger.
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For teams looking for bargains, watch the "reclamation" market. Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin are going to be cheap. They might not be ready for Opening Day, but they could be huge additions by July.
Actionable Insights for the Rest of Winter:
- Watch the Blue Jays: They’ve already spent big on Cease and Okamoto. If they land Tucker or Bichette, they become the favorites in the AL.
- Monitor the "Innings Eaters": Teams like the Twins and Guardians usually wait until late January to snag guys like Jose Quintana or Zack Littell on team-friendly deals.
- The Trade Market is the Wild Card: With so many free agents still unsigned, desperate teams might start looking at trades. Keep an eye on the Marlins and Rockies; they’re always looking to shed salary for prospects.
The 2026 season is only a few months away, but the roster you see today is definitely not the one you'll see on Opening Day.