You’ve probably seen the headlines or the viral tweets by now. Every year around February, the internet goes into a collective meltdown about musk ads super bowl rumors. Whether it’s people claiming he’s finally buying airtime for Tesla or the more recent, wilder theories about political manifestos, the "will he or won't he" cycle has basically become its own sport.
Honestly, the reality is a lot weirder than the rumors.
While most brands are busy paying $7 million or $8 million for 30 seconds of your attention, Elon Musk has famously spent $0 on traditional Super Bowl commercials for years. But that doesn't mean his companies aren't all over the broadcast. It’s a classic Musk move: getting everyone to talk about you without actually writing a check to the network.
The $40 Million DOGE Ad Rumor
Back in early 2025, a massive rumor caught fire on X and TikTok. People were swearing up and down that Musk had dropped $40 million on five different 30-second spots. The narrative was pretty specific: he was supposedly going to use the musk ads super bowl slots to air a "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) expose, listing out government waste and corruption right in the middle of the game.
It sounded plausible to a lot of people because, well, it’s Elon. He likes big stages. He likes disruption.
But it never happened.
Fact-checkers from PolitiFact and Reuters eventually traced the whole thing back to a series of Facebook posts that used an old, unrelated photo of Musk drinking bourbon from 2022. There were no DOGE ads. There was no $40 million blitz. If you were watching Super Bowl LIX between the Chiefs and the Eagles, the only thing you actually saw related to Musk was a T-Mobile commercial. That ad featured SpaceX’s Starlink, but it was paid for by T-Mobile, not Musk himself.
Why Tesla Doesn't Do Super Bowl Ads
It’s kind of a legendary piece of business lore at this point. Tesla doesn't have a traditional advertising budget. While Ford, GM, and Kia are pouring tens of millions into "The Big Game" to show off their latest EVs, Tesla usually stays on the sidelines.
Musk’s philosophy has always been that the money is better spent on engineering and production. He’s famously said that "good products sell themselves." If you’re a Tesla fan, you’ve probably heard this a thousand times. If you’re a critic, you probably think it’s just a way to let the "cult of personality" do the heavy lifting for free.
Interestingly, the most famous musk ads super bowl moments actually come from people who hate the company.
The Dawn Project Attack Ads
For two years running, a billionaire software entrepreneur named Dan O’Dowd has spent his own money to buy regional Super Bowl ads attacking Tesla. O’Dowd’s "The Dawn Project" has run spots showing Teslas on Full Self-Driving (FSD) supposedly failing to stop for school buses or hitting child-sized mannequins.
- 2023: The first big attack ad aired.
- 2024: O’Dowd spent about $552,000 on regional spots in markets like D.C., California, and Michigan.
- The Result: Musk usually just tweets a laugh or says the ads actually help Tesla by showing people what the cars can do (even if the ads are meant to be negative).
This creates a bizarre situation where the "Tesla Super Bowl ad" everyone is Googling is actually a "Boycott Tesla" ad paid for by a competitor. It’s the ultimate irony in modern marketing.
The Strategy of Being "Ad-Adjacent"
Even without a formal musk ads super bowl presence, Musk dominates the conversation. It’s a phenomenon marketers call "earned media."
Think about it. In 2024, Musk was spotted in the stands with his son, X Æ A-12. In 2023, he was seen sitting with Rupert Murdoch. Every time the camera cuts to him, it generates more "impressions" than a paid 30-second spot ever could. Then there’s X (formerly Twitter). The Super Bowl is the biggest night of the year for the platform. Musk basically owns the digital stadium where the conversation happens.
If you own the platform where everyone is talking about the ads, do you really need to buy an ad?
What to Watch for in 2026 and Beyond
As we look toward the next cycle of musk ads super bowl speculation, keep a few things in mind. The "no advertising" rule at Tesla has started to soften just a tiny bit. They’ve experimented with some small-scale Google ads and social media promos recently.
However, a Super Bowl spot is a different beast. It requires months of lead time and a massive production budget. For Musk to suddenly pivot and buy a national spot for X or Tesla, it would signal a massive shift in his business strategy—likely a move toward mass-market desperation or a major political pivot.
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Actionable Takeaways for the Next Big Game
If you're trying to separate fact from fiction when the next wave of musk ads super bowl rumors hits, follow these steps:
- Check the Adweek Tracker: They maintain a live list of every confirmed brand that has bought a slot. If a company isn't on that list by January, they aren't in the game.
- Verify the "Regional" vs. "National" split: Many of the "Tesla ads" people see are actually local buys. This means someone like Dan O'Dowd or a local dealership bought time in just one city, not the whole country.
- Look for the Starlink Cameos: Musk's companies often appear as partners (like the T-Mobile/Starlink deal). This is the most likely way you'll see a Musk-related brand on screen.
- Follow the Money, Not the Memes: Viral images of Musk holding signs or drinking bourbon are almost always "engagement bait" designed to trick people into sharing.
The most important thing to remember is that Elon Musk’s brand is built on being the person who doesn't do what everyone else does. Buying a Super Bowl ad is what "legacy" companies do. Until he feels like he's part of the establishment, he'll likely keep letting the rumors do the advertising for him.