Honestly, if you looked at the Eastern Conference standings three months ago, you probably wouldn't have guessed the Detroit Pistons would be sitting comfortably at the top while the Milwaukee Bucks are sweating bullets just to stay in the mix. But that’s the 2025-26 NBA season for you. It’s chaotic. It’s unpredictable. And with the January 17th slate of games upon us, the picture for the nba play in predictions is finally starting to clear up—even if it looks nothing like what we expected back in October.
Right now, we are about halfway through the grind. The "dog days" of January are when the pretenders start to slide and the desperate teams start making calls to the front office. If the season ended today, the play-in tournament would be a total bloodbath. We're looking at veteran-heavy rosters like the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors potentially fighting for their lives in single-elimination games.
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It's a stressful time to be a fan. One week you're the 7th seed with home-court advantage in the play-in; the next, you've dropped three straight and you're the 10th seed traveling to a hostile arena.
The Current State of the 2026 Play-In Bracket
As of mid-January, the Eastern and Western Conferences are telling two very different stories. In the East, there’s a massive logjam in the middle. In the West, it’s a high-stakes game of musical chairs between aging dynasties and the "new guard" led by guys like Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Eastern Conference Outlook
The Detroit Pistons have shocked everyone by holding the #1 seed with a 29-10 record. That’s great for them, but it’s pushed traditional powerhouses down the ladder.
- Cleveland Cavaliers (7th) vs. Miami Heat (8th): This would be the "Heavyweight" matchup. Cleveland has been up and down, but they have the talent to be a top-four seed. Miami is, well, Miami. They basically invented the "play-in to Finals" pipeline back in 2023. You never count out Erik Spoelstra in a one-game scenario.
- Atlanta Hawks (9th) vs. Chicago Bulls (10th): This is the "Desperation Bowl." Atlanta (20-23) has struggled with consistency, and the Bulls (19-22) are barely keeping their heads above water. Both teams are likely looking at the trade deadline to see if they can bolster their depth before April.
Western Conference Outlook
The West is absolutely terrifying. You have the Oklahoma City Thunder (34-7) running away with the conference, which leaves everyone else fighting for scraps.
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- Phoenix Suns (7th) vs. Golden State Warriors (8th): Imagine Kevin Durant versus Steph Curry in a "win and you're in" game. It’s a marketing dream for the NBA and a nightmare for the losing team’s fan base. Phoenix has been hampered by a Devin Booker ankle sprain recently, which has caused them to slide.
- Portland Trail Blazers (9th) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (10th): Portland is the surprise here. They’ve played gritty basketball all year. Memphis, meanwhile, is dealing with a laundry list of injuries—Ja Morant is currently out with a calf contusion, and Zach Edey is sidelined with an ankle issue.
Why Injuries are Ruining Everyone's NBA Play-In Predictions
You can’t talk about the post-season without talking about the training room. This year has been particularly brutal. Jayson Tatum is currently out for the Boston Celtics (Achilles), which has opened the door for teams like the Knicks and Raptors to climb the standings.
When you're trying to make accurate nba play in predictions, you have to look at who is actually going to be on the floor in April. Take the Dallas Mavericks. They should be a playoff lock, but they are currently sitting outside the top 10 at 15-26. Why? Because Anthony Davis has missed half the season and Kyrie Irving is recovering from knee surgery. Even with rookie sensation Cooper Flagg putting up 21.7 points per game, the Mavs just don't have the bodies to compete in the West right now.
Then you have the Los Angeles Clippers. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 games because Kawhi Leonard is actually playing. He's averaging 28 points and shooting nearly 39% from deep. If Kawhi stays healthy, the Clippers aren't a play-in team—they're a threat to the Thunder. But if his ankle acts up again? They're right back in the 7-10 seed conversation.
Breaking Down the "Danger Zone" Teams
There are three teams that everyone is watching closely as we approach the trade deadline. These are the teams that could either surge into the top six or completely fall out of the postseason.
1. The Milwaukee Bucks
Currently the 11th seed in the East (17-24). It’s weird seeing Giannis this low. They’ve lost three in a row and look tired. The defense is ranked in the bottom third of the league, and they're missing that "connector" player they had in years past. My prediction? They’ll make a panic trade in February to secure the 9th or 10th spot.
2. The Los Angeles Lakers
Sitting at the 5th seed (24-14), they are actually overperforming based on preseason expectations. But the West is so tight that a bad two-week stretch could land them in the play-in. LeBron is still LeBron, but they are heavily reliant on him. If they fall to 7th, nobody is going to want to play them in a single-elimination game.
3. The Phoenix Suns
With Devin Booker out, the Suns are vulnerable. They are 24-17 but have a tough schedule ahead. If they can’t stay healthy, they are the prime candidate to be "upset" in the play-in by a younger, hungrier team like the Rockets or Spurs.
How the Play-In Format Actually Works (Quick Refresher)
Lest we forget, the format is designed to be a bit of a circus. The #7 seed hosts the #8 seed. The winner gets the #7 spot in the playoffs. The loser doesn't go home yet; they wait.
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Meanwhile, the #9 seed hosts the #10 seed in an elimination game. The loser of that is out. The winner then travels to play the loser of the 7-vs-8 game. The winner of that final game gets the #8 seed and a date with the #1 seed (likely the Pistons or Thunder).
It’s a grueling path. If you're the 9th or 10th seed, you have to win two games in a row just to get into a series where you’ll probably be a massive underdog.
Realistic Predictions for the Final Seeds
If you're looking for where to put your money—or just looking to win your office pool—here is how the "middle of the pack" is likely to shake out by April.
- In the East: I expect the Cleveland Cavaliers to figure it out and jump into the top six, likely displacing the Raptors. This leaves a play-in group of Miami, Toronto, Atlanta, and Milwaukee. Experience usually wins here. I’m picking Miami and Milwaukee to survive the gauntlet and take the final two spots.
- In the West: The Suns should stabilize once Booker is back. The Warriors are the big question mark. Steph is still playing at an All-NBA level, but the supporting cast is shaky. I think the Warriors and Lakers (if they slip) are the safest bets to emerge from the play-in simply because of playoff experience.
What to Watch for Next
The next month is the most important stretch of the season. Watch the injury reports for the Clippers and Suns. If Leonard or Booker face setbacks, the Western Conference play-in race gets even more chaotic.
Keep an eye on the Dallas Mavericks too. If they get Anthony Davis back by February, they could go on a run that knocks the Grizzlies or Blazers out of the 10th spot. Cooper Flagg is a game-changer, but he can't do it alone.
Next Steps for Following the Race:
- Check the "Games Behind" column daily; in the East, 7th through 11th are separated by only a few games.
- Monitor the NBA trade deadline on February 6th. Teams like the Bulls and Hawks are prime candidates to "sell," which would change the play-in landscape overnight.
- Track the "Strength of Schedule" for the Miami Heat. They traditionally finish seasons strong, which might help them avoid the play-in altogether.
The race is far from over. Honestly, that’s the best part.