Cooper Flagg. That’s usually where the conversation starts and ends these days. If you’ve spent any time looking at the rookie of the year favorites for the upcoming cycle, his name is basically glued to the top of every sportsbook from Vegas to DraftKings. It makes sense. He’s a generational talent. But honestly? Betting on the favorite in this category is often a trap that ignores how the NBA actually functions over an 82-game grind.
The Rookie of the Year (ROTY) award isn't just about who is the "best" basketball player. If it were, the trophy case would look a lot different. It’s about opportunity. It’s about who landed on a team bad enough to let a twenty-year-old take 18 shots a night but competent enough that those shots don't feel like total garbage time stats.
You’ve gotta look at the usage rates. You have to look at the injuries. Last year, Victor Wembanyama felt like a lock, and he was, but there were moments where Chet Holmgren’s efficiency on a winning team actually made people hesitate. That nuance is what defines the race.
The Flagg Effect and the Burden of Hype
Cooper Flagg is coming into the league with the kind of hype we haven't seen since Wemby or LeBron. Coming out of Duke, he’s got the defensive versatility that coaches drool over. But being one of the rookie of the year favorites carries a specific kind of weight. When you're the number one target on the scouting report every single night, life gets hard fast.
He’s likely going to a franchise that is in the literal basement of the standings. That means double teams. That means seeing the "varsity" defenders from the opposing team while he’s still trying to figure out where the best local food is in a new city. His impact on winning might be massive, but his shooting percentages might take a hit. That matters to voters.
People love a narrative. If Flagg averages 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks, he’s the frontrunner. Period. But if a guy like Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper puts up 22 points on a slightly better team, the "Best Player on a Play-In Team" argument starts to grow legs. It happens every few years. Remember when Malcolm Brogdon won? He wasn't the highest ceiling guy, but he was the most "pro-ready."
Why Usage Rate Trumps Raw Talent
Let’s talk about the math. To win ROTY, you basically need the ball. A lot.
Look at the historical data for rookie of the year favorites. Most winners have a usage rate north of 24%. If you’re a 3-and-D prospect drafted by a contender—think of a team like the Thunder or the Celtics—you aren't winning this award. You won't get the touches. You’ll be standing in the corner waiting for a kick-out pass while the vets do the heavy lifting.
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- Shot Volume: You need at least 12–15 field goal attempts per game.
- Health: The 65-game rule is a looming shadow. If a favorite rolls an ankle and misses three weeks, their odds plummet.
- Voter Fatigue: It’s real. If a player starts slow, even if they finish the season like a superstar, the early-season narrative is hard to break.
A lot of people are sleeping on the international guys or the "older" rookies. A 21-year-old who played three years of high-level college ball or professional ball in Europe often has a physical advantage over the 19-year-old one-and-done kids. They don't hit the "rookie wall" in February quite as hard. Their bodies are just more used to the contact.
The Dark Horses Nobody Is Betting On Yet
Every year, there’s a guy drafted in the 7-12 range who ends up being one of the rookie of the year favorites by Christmas.
Think about the situation. You want a guard on a team with no established point guard. Or a big man on a team that just traded away their starting center. Context is everything. If Dylan Harper lands in a spot where he’s handed the keys to the offense on day one, his statistical ceiling is higher than a more talented player stuck behind an All-Star.
V.J. Edgecombe is another name that keeps popping up in scout circles. His athleticism is violent. It’s loud. And "loud" plays—the blocks into the third row, the poster dunks—they show up on social media. They influence the casual voters. You can't ignore the "highlight factor" when discussing rookie of the year favorites. It shouldn't matter, but it does.
Defense vs. Offense: The Great Divide
The NBA is an offensive league. We know this. But the voters are getting smarter. They’re looking at advanced metrics like Defensive Win Shares and EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus).
If a rookie is a literal sieve on defense, they have to be an offensive maestro to compensate. This is why some of the "pure scorers" in this draft class might struggle to stay at the top of the rookie of the year favorites list. If they’re getting hunted on every switch, their coach is going to bench them in the fourth quarter. You can’t win an award from the pine.
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How to Actually Evaluate the Field
If you're trying to figure out who will actually take the trophy home, ignore the jersey sales. Look at the depth chart.
- Find the vacuum: Which team has the most vacant minutes at a specific position?
- Check the schedule: Does the team play a lot of nationally televised games? Exposure is the "secret sauce" of award voting.
- The "Vibe Check": Does the player look like they belong? Some rookies look like they’re moving in slow motion for the first forty games. Others, like Paolo Banchero or Wemby, looked like they owned the floor from the jump.
The 65-game eligibility rule is the most important thing to monitor. In the modern NBA, "load management" is a plague for award seekers. A minor hamstring tweak that used to be a 5-game absence is now a 15-game cautionary stint in the G-League or on the training table. If your favorite player is "injury prone" or on a team that loves to tank late in the season, be very, very careful.
The Reality of the "Rookie Wall"
It’s a cliché because it’s true.
College players go from playing 30 games a year to a schedule that feels like a never-ending treadmill. By game 50, many of the rookie of the year favorites start to see their shooting percentages crater. Their legs are gone. The guys who survive this—the ones who have world-class nutrition and recovery teams—are the ones who pull away in March and April.
Often, the winner isn't the guy who was best in November. It’s the guy who didn't fall apart in March.
Immediate Action Steps for Tracking the Race
To stay ahead of the curve on the rookie of the year favorites, you need to move past the box scores. Start by tracking minutes played per game in the first two weeks of the season; anyone under 28 minutes is likely out of the running regardless of their talent. Follow specific beat writers for the "bad" teams—they see the practice habits and the coaching frustrations that don't make it to the national broadcast. Finally, monitor the usage percentage on NBA.com's tracking stats. If a rookie is hovering around 25%, they are being given the "green light" necessary to put up the counting stats that voters crave. High usage plus league-average efficiency is the golden ticket for this award. Keep an eye on the injury reports for veteran teammates, as a single trade or a season-ending injury to a starter can instantly turn a bench-warming rookie into a statistical powerhouse overnight.