NBA Signings and Trades: What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Market

NBA Signings and Trades: What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Market

The NBA doesn’t sleep. Honestly, it barely even naps. While most people were still recovering from New Year's hangovers, the league office was busy processing a deal that sent shockwaves through the Southeast Division. Trae Young is a Washington Wizard. Yeah, you read that right. On January 9, 2026, the Atlanta Hawks finally pulled the trigger, sending their four-time All-Star to D.C. in exchange for Corey Kispert, CJ McCollum, and a massive trade exception.

It’s the kind of move that feels like a glitch in a video game until you see the jersey swaps on social media.

But if you think that’s the only thing happening with nba signings and trades, you haven’t been paying attention to the chaos of the 2025-26 season. We are currently staring down the barrel of the February 5 trade deadline, and the rumor mill is spinning so fast it might take flight. Between Kevin Durant’s mid-career rebirth in Houston and the absolute insanity of the Luka Dončić-for-Anthony Davis swap that redefined the Western Conference last year, the league is in a state of permanent flux.

Why NBA Signings and Trades Are Getting Weirder

The New Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) has basically turned the league upside down. You’ve probably heard people talking about "the aprons" like they’re kitchen appliances, but in reality, they are the most restrictive financial handcuffs the league has ever seen.

Take the Golden State Warriors. They are stuck in this weird limbo where Stephen Curry is still playing like a god, but the roster around him feels like a patchwork quilt. They’ve been linked to Zion Williamson in what would be a franchise-altering move, but the math is a nightmare. To get Zion, they’d likely have to cough up Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and even veteran Al Horford just to make the money work.

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The Pelicans aren't exactly in a rush to move Zion, either. His contract is one of the most bizarre in sports history, with guarantees tied to his weight and games played. If he stays on the court, he's a bargain. If he doesn't, he's a massive risk that could sink a team's cap for half a decade.

The Trae Young Fallout

Atlanta moving Trae wasn't just about the player. It was about an era ending. The Hawks have looked better without him at times this year, which is a wild thing to say about a guy who leads the league in highlight-reel passes. Washington, on the other hand, is desperate for a centerpiece. They’ve been in a tailspin since the Bradley Beal era ended, and Trae gives them a reason to sell tickets again.

The Deadline Targets You Should Actually Watch

Forget the "fake" rumors you see on questionable Twitter accounts. There are real, tangible moves brewing right now that will impact the 2026 playoffs.

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  1. Michael Porter Jr. (Brooklyn Nets): Since being traded from Denver for Cam Johnson, MPJ has been on a tear. He's shooting 41% from deep on nearly 10 attempts per game. But Brooklyn is bad. Like, really bad. They are looking to flip him for draft capital while his value is at an all-time high.
  2. Lauri Markkanen (Utah Jazz): Utah is in a classic "too good to tank, too bad to win" conundrum. Markkanen is a top-10 scorer right now, but the Jazz only keep their first-round pick if it's in the top eight. If they want to bottom out for a better pick, Markkanen is the first guy out the door.
  3. Jonathan Kuminga: He’s disgruntled. That’s the polite way to put it. The Lakers have emerged as a "dark horse" suitor here. They need wing depth and athleticism to help Luka Dončić (still weird to say he's a Laker, right?). Kuminga's trade value has dipped, making him a perfect "buy low" candidate for Rob Pelinka.

The Buyout Market is the New Free Agency

Because of those aforementioned "aprons," big-name nba signings and trades are harder to pull off mid-season. Instead, teams are waiting for the buyout market. Last summer, the Lakers landed Deandre Ayton after a buyout, a move that would have been impossible via trade.

We’re seeing the same thing with veterans like Kevin Love. He’s a prime candidate to get waived and sign a pro-rated minimum with a contender. It’s a loophole that the league tried to close, but smart GMs are still finding ways to exploit it.

What about LeBron?

LeBron James is 41. He’s still a +35 impact player. He opted into his $52.6 million player option with the Lakers, but the whispers are getting louder that this might be his final season in purple and gold. The Lakers are shifting their focus toward younger defenders like Quentin Grimes and Mitchell Robinson.

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Actionable Insights for the 2026 Deadline

If you're trying to track how these moves will shake out, stop looking at the names and start looking at the contracts.

  • Watch the Trade Exceptions: The Hawks have a huge one from the Trae Young deal. They can absorb a player's salary without sending anyone back. This makes them a "facilitator" for three-team deals.
  • Expiring Contracts: Teams like Boston are dangling expiring deals (like Anfernee Simons' $27.6 million) to find a big man for their title run.
  • The "Bird Rights" Trap: Watch players like Austin Reaves. The Lakers have his Bird rights, meaning they can go over the cap to keep him, but that limits what they can do elsewhere.

The 2026 trade deadline isn't just about moving players; it's about teams trying to survive the most restrictive financial era in NBA history. Keep an eye on the "selling" teams like the Nets and Jazz. They hold the keys to the championship race. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, watch the teams that are currently 5th through 8th in their conferences. They are the ones most likely to panic-trade their future for a shot at a play-in win.