Netflix is in a weird spot. Honestly, if you looked at their subscriber count alone—over 301 million people globally now—you’d think the stock would be screaming toward the moon. But as of January 18, 2026, the vibe on Wall Street is a lot more "cautious parent" than "hyped-up teenager."
Netflix stock prices today have been hovering around the $88 mark, following a pretty consistent slide from those $134 highs we saw last summer. It's a bit of a head-spinner. The company is making more money than ever, yet the share price is acting like it just watched a horror movie. Most of this tension boils down to one massive, $82.7 billion elephant in the room: the bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery assets.
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The Warner Bros. gamble and why it's dragging NFLX down
Investors usually love growth, but they hate uncertainty. Right now, Netflix is giving them a double dose of the latter. By chasing Warner Bros., Netflix is basically saying they aren't satisfied just being the king of streaming; they want the whole castle, including the DC Universe and a massive library of legacy content.
But that kind of ambition isn't free. To make this deal happen, Netflix is looking at taking on roughly $59 billion in new debt. For a company that spent years finally proving it could generate consistent free cash flow (expecting about $9 billion this year), suddenly pivoting back to a massive debt load feels like a regression to some people.
It's not just the debt, though. You've also got the regulators. The FTC and EU are sniffing around this deal like hungry hounds. If the acquisition gets blocked or if Netflix is forced to sell off key parts of the library to make it pass, that $82.7 billion bet starts to look very messy. This is exactly why the stock is sitting nearly 30% off its 52-week high today.
Beyond the "Netflix stock prices today" noise: The ad-tier shift
If you ignore the M&A drama for a second, the actual business is actually doing some pretty cool stuff. The "crawl-walk-run" strategy for advertising is officially in the "walk" phase.
Basically, the ad-supported tier isn't just a side project anymore. It’s a primary engine. Check out these shifts:
- About 40% of all new sign-ups in markets where it's available are choosing the ad tier.
- Monthly Active Users (MAUs) on the ad plan hit 190 million early this year.
- Ad revenue is projected to hit $7.4 billion by 2027, a massive jump from where it started.
The pivot to live events is also changing the math. Remember the NFL Christmas games? They pulled in 30 million viewers each. That kind of "appointment viewing" is exactly what advertisers want. It makes Netflix look less like a digital video store and more like a modern, data-driven version of 1990s cable TV.
Why the Q4 earnings report on January 20 is the real decider
We are just two days away from the Q4 2025 earnings call. This is going to be the "truth or dare" moment for the stock. Analysts are expecting an EPS of around $0.55 on revenue of roughly $11.97 billion.
But honestly? The numbers might not even be the most important part. Everyone is going to be listening to the tone. If Co-CEO Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos sound like they’re doubling down on the Warner deal without a clear plan for the debt, the stock might test that $82.11 floor. On the flip side, if they show that ad-tier margins are expanding faster than expected, we could see a relief rally back toward $100.
Is the stock actually "cheap" now?
It’s kind of funny to call a $400 billion company "cheap," but for the first time in years, Netflix isn't trading at an astronomical multiple. It’s sitting at about 37 times trailing earnings.
Compare that to the peak years when it was triple that, and you start to see why some folks, like the analysts at KeyBanc, are keeping an "Overweight" rating despite lowering their price targets. They lowered the target to $110, sure, but that’s still a decent chunk of upside from the current $88 price.
What to watch for right now:
- The Brazilian Tax Dispute: A $619 million one-time charge hit them in Q3. Keep an eye out for any more "regulatory surprises" in international markets.
- Pricing Power: There's talk about another price hike in the US. If they announce that alongside the earnings, it could signal they aren't worried about the "Great Unbundling" slowing down.
- The 10-for-1 Split Aftermath: The split in November 2025 made the stock accessible to retail investors again, but it also increased daily volatility.
Actionable insights for the week ahead
If you're holding NFLX or thinking about jumping in, the next 48 hours are purely about risk management.
- Watch the $82 support level: If the stock breaks below its 52-week low after the earnings report, the technical damage could take months to repair.
- Don't ignore the gaming vertical: It's still small, but it’s a retention beast. If they mention a "Premium+" tier for cloud gaming, that’s a new revenue stream the market hasn't fully priced in yet.
- Wait for the "Guidance": In the 2026 market, what happened last quarter matters way less than what management says about the next six months.
The bottom line is that Netflix is no longer just a streaming company. It’s a media conglomerate in training. That transition is painful and expensive, but if they pull off the Warner integration without drowning in debt, the current $88 price might look like a steal by this time next year. For today, though, it's a waiting game.
Stay tuned for the January 20 report. That’s when the real fireworks start.