Honestly, if you were watching the polls in the weeks leading up to October 21, you probably expected a nail-biter. Pundits were talking about seat counts coming down to the wire, maybe a minority government, or a long night of counting ballots in tight ridings.
It didn't happen like that. Not even close.
The New Brunswick election 2024 turned into a literal "red wave" that reshaped the province's political map. By the time the dust settled, Susan Holt didn't just win; she made history as the first woman ever elected Premier of New Brunswick. Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) saw their support crater in places they once considered safe.
Blaine Higgs, the man who had run the province since 2018, didn't just lose the premiership. He lost his own seat in Quispamsis. That kind of defeat is rare—the last time a sitting N.B. premier lost their riding was way back in 1987. It was a clear message from voters that the status quo wasn't cutting it anymore.
Why the Map Flipped
New Brunswick usually splits into three predictable buckets: the francophone north (Liberal), the rural anglophone south (PC), and the big urban centers like Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton, which act as the "swing" zones.
In 2024, those urban zones didn't just swing; they practically sprinted toward the Liberals.
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Take a look at the gains in the big three cities:
- Saint John: Liberal support jumped by a massive 27%.
- Fredericton: A 23% increase for the Liberals.
- Moncton: A 16% rise.
The PCs basically got locked out of the major cities. It wasn't just about party loyalty, either. The Liberals were smart. They knew the federal Liberal brand under Justin Trudeau was struggling, so they basically rebranded. They called themselves "Team Holt," swapped out some of the traditional red for different branding on signs, and Susan Holt made it a point to distance herself from Ottawa. She even came out against the federal carbon tax.
It worked.
Voters who might have been grumpy with the federal Liberals felt comfortable voting for Holt's provincial team because she made it about local issues: your doctor, your rent, and your power bill.
The Issues That Actually Moved the Needle
The PCs tried to run on their record of fiscal management. They promised a 2% cut to the HST, which sounds great on paper. But for a lot of people, a tax cut doesn't help if you can't find a family doctor or if your rent just jumped by $400 a month.
Healthcare was the Elephant in the Room
There are roughly 180,000 New Brunswickers without a primary care provider. That’s a huge chunk of the population. Holt’s promise to open 30 collaborative healthcare clinics in her first three years was probably her strongest card. People liked the idea of "team-based care"—doctors, nurses, and pharmacists all in one building. It felt like a tangible solution to a system that feels like it's breaking.
The Cost of Living Squeeze
While Higgs talked about the HST, Holt talked about "right now" relief. She promised to take the provincial tax off home energy bills and put a cap on rent increases. In a province where housing costs have skyrocketed lately, that resonated.
Policy 713 and the Social Shift
You can't talk about this election without mentioning Policy 713. This was the rule about gender identity in schools—specifically whether teachers need parental consent to use a student’s preferred pronouns.
Higgs leaned hard into "parental rights." Some people loved it, but it also fractured his own party. Several of his cabinet ministers quit or were pushed out because they didn't like his leadership style or this specific focus. In the end, it felt like the controversy might have distracted the PCs from the "bread and butter" issues like the economy and healthcare that most voters care about when they’re standing in the voting booth.
Breaking Down the Numbers
If you like the raw data, the final tally for the 49 seats in the Legislative Assembly looked like this:
- Liberals (Susan Holt): 31 seats (48.2% of the popular vote)
- Progressive Conservatives (Blaine Higgs): 16 seats (35% of the popular vote)
- Greens (David Coon): 2 seats (13.8% of the popular vote)
The Greens actually lost a seat—Kevin Arseneau lost his Kent North riding to Liberal Pat Finnigan. It was a tough night for third parties in general. When voters decide they want "change," they usually flock to the biggest alternative, which in this case was the Liberals.
Turnout was around 66%. That’s actually a little bit lower than the 2020 pandemic election, which is kinda surprising given how much noise there was around this race.
What Happens Now?
Susan Holt is now in the driver's seat with a comfortable majority. This means she doesn't need to make deals with the Greens or anyone else to pass laws.
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Her first few months are going to be a sprint. She's already signaled that the tax break on power bills and the rent cap are top priorities. But the real test will be the healthcare clinics. Building 30 clinics and staffing them with doctors and nurses who are already in short supply is a massive mountain to climb.
Also, watch for a shift in how the province talks to the federal government. While Holt distanced herself during the campaign, she’ll need federal cooperation on things like housing and infrastructure. It’ll be a delicate balancing act to stay "Team Holt" while working with a federal Liberal party that is currently trailing in the polls.
Practical Next Steps for New Brunswickers
If you're wondering how this affects your daily life, here is what you should keep an eye on over the coming months:
- Watch your NB Power bill: Look for the removal of the provincial portion of the HST on your home energy costs.
- Check the Rent Cap: if you’re a renter, keep tabs on the new legislation regarding how much your landlord can legally hike your rent.
- Clinic Rollouts: Keep an eye on announcements for the "collaborative care clinics." If you’re one of the thousands on the "Patient Connect NB" list, these clinics are meant for you.
- School Policies: Expect a review of the education policies (like Policy 713) to bring them in line with the recommendations from the Child and Youth Advocate.
The 2024 election was a bit of a "vibe shift" for New Brunswick. It moved the province away from a period of intense fiscal restraint and social conservatism toward a more urban-focused, service-heavy platform. Whether the "Team Holt" approach can actually fix the healthcare crisis remains to be seen, but for now, the province has definitely turned a new page.