The NFC bracket is a mess of narratives right now. Honestly, if you told a Seahawks fan back in August that Sam Darnold would be the betting favorite to lead them to a Super Bowl, they’d have probably asked what was in your coffee. But here we are. It is January 16, 2026, and the odds to win NFC championship have shifted dramatically after a wild-card round that saw the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles get sent home early.
Seattle is the top dog.
💡 You might also like: Why the Toronto Blue Jays 2015 Season Still Feels Like a Fever Dream
Mike Macdonald has turned that defense into a brick wall. They secured the No. 1 seed and the only bye in the conference, which is huge. When you look at the board at DraftKings or FanDuel, the Seahawks are sitting pretty at roughly +175 to +185 to win the conference. That’s a massive jump from where they started the season, where they were actually longshots behind the likes of the Lions and Eagles.
Who is Left in the Hunt?
We are down to four teams. It's the "elite eight" in the NFL, but for the NFC, it’s a four-horse race between Seattle, the Los Angeles Rams, the Chicago Bears, and the San Francisco 49ers.
The Rams are the biggest threat to Seattle's throne. They just survived a 34-31 shootout against the Panthers, and Matthew Stafford looks like he’s found the fountain of youth. Most sportsbooks have the Rams around +250 to win the NFC. They have to go through Chicago first, which is no easy task.
The Bears are the feel-good story that almost died last week. They were trailing Green Bay 21-3 at halftime. It looked over. Then, a 25-point fourth quarter changed everything. Now, the odds to win NFC championship for Chicago have settled around +600. They’re the third favorite, but playing at Soldier Field in January gives them a "tough out" reputation that the odds don't always fully capture.
Then there’s the 49ers. They are the No. 6 seed. Normally, you’d count a 6-seed out, but this is Kyle Shanahan we’re talking about. They just beat the Eagles in Philly. They’re currently the "longshot" at +2000 for the Super Bowl, but their conference odds are more around +800 to +900 depending on where you shop.
The Betting Landscape as of January 16, 2026
- Seattle Seahawks (+175): The favorites. Home-field advantage throughout.
- Los Angeles Rams (+250): The most dangerous offense remaining.
- Chicago Bears (+600): The gritty wild card with momentum.
- San Francisco 49ers (+850): The team nobody wants to play in a muddy game.
The Sam Darnold Factor
It’s the elephant in the room. Sam Darnold is currently second in the league in yards per attempt. He’s playing point guard for a team that has Jaxon Smith-Njigba—who just led the NFL in receiving yards—and a two-headed monster in the backfield with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.
People keep waiting for the "Old Sam" to show up.
He hasn't.
Macdonald’s defensive scheme is so suffocating (allowing only 13 points over the last two games) that Darnold doesn't have to be a hero. He just has to be efficient. The market reflects this. If you’re looking at the odds to win NFC championship, you’re basically betting on whether you trust this version of the Seahawks to stay consistent for two more games.
Why the Rams Might Be the Better Value
The Rams and Seahawks split their regular-season series. In their second meeting, the Rams actually blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter. They know they can beat Seattle.
✨ Don't miss: BYU Women’s Basketball Schedule: What Most People Get Wrong
Sean McVay has the Rams ranking top 10 in almost every advanced metric: pass-rush win rate, run-stop win rate, and pass-block win rate. They win in the trenches. If they can get past the Bears this Sunday, a potential Seattle vs. L.A. matchup in the NFC Championship would be a "pick 'em" or very close to it. Getting the Rams at +250 right now feels like a steal if you think they handle business in Chicago.
Chicago’s Soldier Field Advantage
The Bears are 3.5-point underdogs at home against the Rams this weekend. That tells you a lot. Even with the momentum of that comeback win over the Packers, Vegas still doesn't quite believe in the Bears' staying power.
But look at the defense. Dennis Allen’s unit has to find a way to stop Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. If they can turn that game into a low-scoring, ugly affair—the kind of game Chicago loves—those +600 odds for the NFC title start looking very interesting.
Don't Sleep on the 49ers
The Niners are heading to Seattle this Saturday. They are 7-point underdogs. That’s a massive spread for a divisional round game between rivals.
Christian McCaffrey is healthy. He put up over 2,100 yards from scrimmage this year. The 49ers have been to four of the last six NFC Championship games. They have the "been there, done that" pedigree that teams like the Bears lack. If they pull the upset in Seattle, the entire NFC bracket breaks wide open.
Practical Advice for Betting the NFC Championship
If you are looking to place a wager on the odds to win NFC championship, the smartest move is often to look at the "lookahead lines."
For example, look at the potential matchups. If Seattle wins, they host the winner of Rams/Bears. If you think the Rams win this weekend, their odds to win the NFC will drop from +250 to maybe +120 or +130 instantly. Hedging your bets now—or "locking in" the Rams at their current price—is a common strategy among pro bettors before the divisional round kicks off.
Also, keep an eye on the injury report for the 49ers' O-line. They’ve been banged up, and going against Seattle’s pass rush without a clean pocket is a recipe for disaster.
To get the most value, compare the lines across at least three different sportsbooks. Because the public perception of the Bears and Seahawks is so high right now, you can often find slightly better prices on the Rams or 49ers if you're willing to bet against the "hot" teams. Check the weather forecasts for Chicago and Seattle as well; high winds or heavy rain usually favor the teams with the better rushing attacks, which would give a slight edge to the 49ers and Seahawks over the pass-heavy Rams.
👉 See also: World Cup Qualifying CONMEBOL Table Explained: Why It Was So Chaos This Time
Next Steps for Your NFC Playoff Strategy
- Compare Lines: Check DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM specifically for "Conference Winner" futures, as they often vary by 20-30 points.
- Monitor Weather: Watch the Saturday forecast for Seattle; a sloppy track favors Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers' ground game over Seattle's explosive passing attack.
- Watch the Rams' Injury Report: Ensure Davante Adams is 100% after that late-game tweak against Carolina before backing L.A. in Chicago.