The vibe in the AFC West is weird right now. For nearly a decade, you could basically set your watch to the Kansas City Chiefs winning the division, usually by steamrolling the Los Angeles Chargers at least once a year. But 2025 changed everything. If you haven’t been paying attention, the NFL Chiefs vs Chargers dynamic just hit a massive reset button, and it’s not just because Jim Harbaugh is wearing khakis on the sideline again.
Last month, on December 14, something happened that felt like a glitch in the simulation. The Chargers walked into Arrowhead and ground out a 16-13 win. It wasn't flashy. It was gritty, ugly, and perfectly Harbaugh. That victory didn't just give the Chargers a season sweep over Kansas City—it officially eliminated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs from playoff contention.
Think about that. The reigning kings of the AFC are sitting at home while the Chargers are prepping for a deep run.
The Mahomes vs. Herbert "Myth"
Everyone loves to talk about the quarterback battle like it’s a high-flying shootout every time. In reality? It’s become a war of attrition. We’ve been told for years that Justin Herbert can’t win the "big one" against Mahomes. Before the 2025 season, Herbert was 2-4 against Kansas City.
He's 4-7 now, but those last two wins were the ones that actually mattered. In the season opener in Brazil, Herbert threw for 318 yards and three scores. He looked like the guy we all thought he’d be. Then, in the Week 15 rematch, he didn't even have to be a superhero. He was efficient. He managed the clock. He let his defense do the dirty work.
Mahomes, on the other hand, has had a brutal 2025. Honestly, it’s been tough to watch at times. Behind a shaky offensive line, he’s been hit more than almost any other QB in the league—93 times through mid-November alone. When you’re running for your life, the "Mahomes Magic" starts to look more like a desperate scramble.
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Why the Chiefs' Streak Finally Snapped
It wasn’t just one thing. It was a pile-up of bad luck and questionable roster depth.
- The Receiver Room: Rashee Rice’s early-season suspension set a bad tone. Then you had the Week 1 collision between Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce that sidelined the rookie with a shoulder injury.
- The Run Game: Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are solid, but they couldn't bail the offense out when the passing game stalled. In that December loss, the Chiefs averaged a measly 3.2 yards per carry.
- Defensive Fatigue: Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is still elite, but they can’t stay on the field forever. The Chargers won the time of possession battle in their last meeting by nearly ten minutes.
The Harbaugh Effect is Real
You can hate the personality, but you can’t argue with the results. Jim Harbaugh has turned the Chargers into a team that actually knows how to finish games. For years, "Chargering" was a verb that meant finding a creative way to lose in the fourth quarter.
Not anymore.
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Look at the rookie running back Omarion Hampton. In the Brazil game, he made a classic rookie mistake by running out of bounds and stopping the clock. Older Chargers teams would have let that spiral into a loss. This team? They clamped down. They trust their kicker, Cameron Dicker (who has been money, going 3-for-3 in the December win), and they trust a defense led by guys like Odafe Oweh, who notched two sacks against Mahomes in their last outing.
A Historic Shift in the AFC West
The numbers are starting to look a lot more balanced. While the Chiefs still lead the all-time series 71-60-1, the Chargers have now won two straight. That hasn't happened since the 2021 season.
The most shocking stat? The Chiefs finished 2025 at 6-11. That is their first losing season in the Mahomes era. It’s the first time they’ve been irrelevant in January since before most high schoolers were born.
Meanwhile, the Chargers ended the regular season at 11-6. They didn’t win the division—that honor surprisingly went to the 14-3 Denver Broncos—but they secured the No. 7 seed. They are a dangerous out because they’ve proven they can beat the best teams in the conference in low-scoring, physical matchups.
What’s Next for the Chiefs vs. Chargers Rivalry?
If you're looking at this matchup for 2026, the narratives are going to be wild. The Chiefs are going to be in "revenge tour" mode. They have a high draft pick for the first time in forever.
For the Chargers, the goal is simple: sustain this. They have the quarterback. They have the coach. They finally have a defense that doesn't cave under pressure.
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Actionable Insights for the Offseason:
- Watch the Chiefs' Draft: They desperately need to rebuild the interior of that offensive line to protect Mahomes. If they don't, 2026 will look just like 2025.
- Monitor Herbert’s Health: He took a lot of hits this year (106, to be exact). The Chargers' success depends entirely on his ability to stay upright.
- Check the Betting Lines Early: The "under" was a goldmine for Chiefs-Chargers games in 2025. Until Kansas City proves their offense is back, don't expect the 35-31 shootouts of the past.
The era of Chiefs dominance in the AFC West isn't necessarily over, but it's definitely on hiatus. The Chargers finally stopped being "talented on paper" and started being "dangerous on the field."
Next Steps for the 2026 Season:
Keep a close eye on the NFL free agency period in March. The Chargers are projected to have significant cap space to surround Herbert with even more weapons, while the Chiefs will likely be aggressive in reshaping a wide receiver room that let them down when it mattered most.