Man, 2018 feels like a lifetime ago in NFL years, doesn't it? It was the year of the "Big Five" quarterbacks, a draft cycle so saturated with hype that you couldn't scroll through Twitter without seeing a new nfl draft mock draft 2018 every six minutes. Everyone had a "source." Everyone had a "gut feeling." And honestly? Most of those gurus were hilariously wrong.
Looking back now, it's kinda wild to see how certain the experts were about guys who are currently holding clipboards or out of the league entirely. We were told Sam Darnold was the "safest" bet in the class. We were told Josh Allen was a boom-or-bust project who might never learn to hit the broad side of a barn. And Lamar Jackson? He was basically an afterthought in the top-ten conversation.
The Baker Mayfield Smoke and Mirrors
If you go back to the early spring of 2018, the nfl draft mock draft 2018 consensus was almost universally Sam Darnold to the Cleveland Browns at No. 1. It was the "prototypical" pick. Darnold had the size, the USC pedigree, and that "look" that old-school scouts drool over.
But then, things got weird.
About 72 hours before the draft, the rumors started bubbling. People were whispering that John Dorsey—then the Browns GM—was actually obsessed with the short kid from Oklahoma with the massive chip on his shoulder. Most of us thought it was a smokescreen. I mean, why would you take a 6-foot-ish quarterback over the "safe" Darnold or the "strong-armed" Josh Allen?
"Baker Mayfield and new NFL thinking: It's hard to view a Heisman Trophy winner from Oklahoma as an underdog, but it is truly remarkable that a former walk-on who isn't quite 6-foot-1 was just drafted No. 1 overall." - NFL.com Debrief, April 2018
The Browns actually pulled the trigger, and it sent the rest of the draft into a tailspin. Because Baker went first, the Giants—who were convinced they didn't need a QB because Eli Manning still had "gas in the tank"—rushed to the podium for Saquon Barkley.
Why the Josh Allen Evaluation Was a Mess
If there is one player who proves that most nfl draft mock draft 2018 experts don't actually know how to project growth, it’s Josh Allen.
At the time, Allen was the ultimate "stats vs. traits" debate. He was coming out of Wyoming with a completion percentage that hovered around 56%. In the "Prototypical Scout" handbook, that's a death sentence. PFF and the analytics crowd hated the pick. They saw a guy who struggled against Central Michigan and assumed he’d get eaten alive by NFL secondaries.
But Mel Kiper Jr. actually stood his ground on this one. He had Allen as his No. 1 overall pick in his Mock 1.0. He saw the arm strength that could cut through the Buffalo wind and the athleticism that most people ignored because they were too busy looking at his box scores.
The Lamar Jackson "Disrespect"
It’s actually painful to look back at where Lamar Jackson was landing in almost every nfl draft mock draft 2018.
Most experts had him as the 5th quarterback off the board. Some—looking at you, Bill Polian—even suggested he should move to wide receiver. It was absurd then, and it looks borderline criminal now. Lamar was a Heisman winner who had carried a mediocre Louisville team on his back, yet he slid all the way to pick 32.
The Baltimore Ravens played the board perfectly. They let everyone else take their "safe" picks and then traded back into the first round to snag a future two-time MVP. It’s a masterclass in why you don't follow the "consensus" mock draft.
Hits and Misses: The 2018 Reality Check
To really understand how chaotic that year was, you've gotta look at the "sure things" that weren't.
- Josh Rosen: "The most pro-ready QB." He was supposed to be the technician. Instead, he became the poster child for why "safe" doesn't exist. He’s played for nearly a dozen teams and never found a footing.
- Bradley Chubb: He was the "no-brainer" defensive end. While he's had a solid career, injuries hampered his peak in Denver.
- Quenton Nelson: One of the few picks that everyone actually got right. He was a generational guard at Notre Dame, and he’s been a generational guard for the Colts.
What Really Happened with the New York Teams?
The Jets and Giants define the 2018 draft legacy. The Jets traded a King’s ransom to move up to No. 3, thinking they were getting their savior in Sam Darnold. They were so happy he "fell" to them. Fast forward a few years, and they were trading him to Carolina to make room for Zach Wilson (which is its own tragedy).
The Giants, on the other hand, passed on a franchise QB to take a running back. Dave Gettleman famously said, "If you have to make yourself fall in love with a guy, you're making a mistake." He wasn't in love with the QBs, so he took Saquon. Saquon was incredible, but without a QB, the Giants spent years spinning their wheels in the mud.
How to Use This Knowledge Today
If you're still looking at an old nfl draft mock draft 2018 to understand how the league works, here is the real takeaway: Traits beat production in the first round, but processing beats everything.
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The guys who "won" that draft (Allen, Lamar) had elite physical traits that allowed them to survive while they learned the mental side of the game. The guys who "lost" (Rosen, Darnold) were drafted based on what they already were, and they never got much better.
Your Next Steps for Draft Analysis
If you're trying to evaluate current prospects or just want to be better at spotting the next Josh Allen, do this:
- Ignore the "Pro-Ready" label. It usually just means a player has reached their ceiling early.
- Look for "Eraser" traits. Can the player erase a bad play with their legs or a massive arm? That’s what saves careers.
- Watch the post-draft re-evaluations. Sites like WalterFootball or PFF often do "re-drafts" five years later. Study those to see where the original logic failed.
The 2018 draft was a turning point for how the NFL values mobile, high-upside quarterbacks. It was the end of the "statue in the pocket" era. So the next time you see a mock draft, remember: the person who wrote it is probably just as guessing as you are.
Actionable Insight: Stop focusing on completion percentage for college prospects. Focus on "Big Time Throws" and rushing yards under pressure. Those are the metrics that actually predicted the success of the 2018 class.