You probably looked at the opening lines for the Divisional Round and did a double-take. I know I did. Seeing a number one seed like the Denver Broncos as barely a 1.5-point favorite at home is the kind of thing that makes you wonder if the Vegas oddsmakers know something we don't. Or maybe they just respect Josh Allen way too much.
Actually, respect isn't the right word. It's fear.
The NFL favorites this week aren't your typical "dominant juggernauts" clearing a touchdown spread. We are looking at a weekend where home-field advantage feels like a suggestion rather than a rule. We have two road favorites in the Divisional Round—the Rams and the Bills (depending on which book you hit)—and a Seattle team that is finally being treated like the powerhouse they’ve been all year.
The Denver Disrespect and the Josh Allen Factor
Let's talk about the Mile High situation. The Broncos finished 14-3. They have the top seed. They had a week to sit on their couches, eat wings, and watch the Wild Card chaos. And yet, the market is basically saying this is a coin flip.
Why? Because the Buffalo Bills just dismantled Jacksonville, and Josh Allen is playing like a man who wants to delete every "can’t win the big one" tweet ever written.
Buffalo is technically a 1.5-point underdog at most spots, but the money is pouring in on them. Denver’s defense is elite—68 sacks in the regular season is no joke—but they struggle against the run. They rank 31st in EPA allowed per designed run. James Cook III just put up over 1,600 yards this season. If Buffalo can just stay balanced and not ask Allen to throw 50 times into that Denver secondary, they might actually be the "real" favorite here.
Honestly, the betting public is treating Denver like a "fraudulent" one-seed because they won 11 games by one score. That’s a lot of living on the edge.
Why the Seahawks Are the Only True Heavyweight
If you want a "safe" pick among the NFL favorites this week, it’s Seattle. They are 7-point favorites against the 49ers for a reason.
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Mike Macdonald has turned that defense into a nightmare. They allowed 13 points total over their last two games. Think about that. In a league designed for scoring, they are out here pitching near-shutouts.
- The Brock Purdy Blitz Problem: San Francisco’s offense is the best in the league when you don't blitz. When you do? They drop to 24th in efficiency.
- Seattle’s Pressure: The Seahawks are the number one defense in the league when they send extra heat.
- The Sam Darnold Renaissance: Nobody had Sam Darnold leading the NFL in yards per attempt on their 2026 bingo card, but here we are.
The 49ers are banged up. No Nick Bosa. Maybe no Fred Warner. It’s hard to imagine a world where San Francisco goes into the Clink and keeps this within a touchdown, especially after Seattle already embarrassed them 31-3 a couple of weeks ago.
The Sunday Slates: Road Favorites and Rookie Walls
Sunday is where things get really weird. The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point favorites on the road in Chicago.
That feels high, right? Soldier Field in January is usually where high-flying offenses go to die. But Caleb Williams is hitting that rookie wall at the worst possible time. He struggled against the Green Bay defense in the Wild Card round before that insane 25-point fourth-quarter comeback saved them. You can't rely on 25-point explosions every week.
Matthew Stafford is 37 and playing like he’s 27. The Rams’ Super Bowl odds have shortened to +325 because people realized that as long as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy, this offense is basically unguardable.
Then you have the Patriots hosting the Texans. New England is a 3-point favorite. Drake Maye vs. C.J. Stroud is the matchup the NFL has been dreaming about for the next decade. The Texans have the best edge-rushing duo in the league with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. If they can get to Maye early, that -3 spread for the Pats is going to look very silly by halftime.
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What Most People Get Wrong About These Odds
People see a small spread and think "upset."
That's not always the case. Sometimes a small spread just means the teams are mirrors of each other. The Bills and Broncos are both physical, run-heavy teams with superstar-dependent passing games. The spread is thin because the margin for error is thin.
Key Stats for the Weekend:
- New England has won 8 straight Divisional Round games. That's a historic trend that's hard to bet against.
- Seattle is the current Super Bowl favorite at +300.
- The Over has hit in 10 of the 49ers' games this year, and with their defense struggling, Saturday night could be a shootout despite the Seattle rain.
If you’re looking for where the value is, keep an eye on the total for that Bills-Broncos game. It's sitting around 45.5. Denver has the best red-zone defense in the league, and Buffalo's defense is actually better than people give them credit for. A 20-17 type of game feels a lot more likely than a 38-35 track meet.
Actionable Insights for This Weekend
If you're looking to move on these NFL favorites this week, don't just follow the "one-seed" logic. The playoffs are about matchups, not seeding.
- Watch the Injury Reports: If Fred Warner is out for the 49ers, that 7-point Seattle spread might jump to 8 or 9. Grab it early if you like the Seahawks.
- Focus on the Trenches: Houston’s defensive line is the real deal. If you think they can rattle Drake Maye, the Texans at +3 is the best value on the board.
- Trust the Veterans: In January, I’ll take Stafford (-3.5) over a rookie in Chicago every single time. Experience in the cold matters more than raw talent when the wind starts whipping off the lake.
The Divisional Round is usually the best weekend of football all year. This year, it's also the most confusing for anyone trying to figure out who the "real" favorites are. Stick with the teams that have a clear identity. Seattle has one. The Rams have one. The others? We'll find out on Saturday.
Keep a close eye on the weather reports for Chicago and Foxborough as we get closer to Sunday kickoff, as high winds could drastically lower the expected point totals in those matchups.