It is Divisional Saturday. If you’re checking nfl football stats today, you aren't just looking at a box score; you’re looking at the wreckage of Wild Card weekend and the blueprints for a Super Bowl run. People love to cite season totals like they're gospel. They'll tell you Matthew Stafford leads the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns, so the Rams are a lock. But they usually ignore that the Rams just barely escaped a 34-31 shootout against a Carolina team that finished the regular season with a losing record.
Stats are funny. They tell you James Cook III is the rushing king with 1,621 yards, but they don't explain how the Buffalo weather in January turns a "speed" stat into a "survival" stat. Honestly, the numbers we see on the screen during a broadcast are just the surface. Underneath is a mess of tiebreakers, weather adjustments, and aging veterans like Stafford outplaying kids half their age.
Today, January 17, 2026, the real story is in the matchups. Buffalo is in Denver. San Francisco is in Seattle. If you think the "regular season" stats still matter, you haven't been paying attention to how playoff football actually works.
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The MVP Race and the Stafford Paradox
Most fans looking for nfl football stats today want to know who is winning the MVP. It’s a two-horse race, basically. You have Matthew Stafford (-140) and the rookie sensation Drake Maye (+115). Stafford’s numbers are vintage. 4,707 yards. 46 scores. He’s 37 years old and playing like he’s 22, but with the brain of a 20-year veteran.
Then there’s Maye. He threw for 4,394 yards. He has a 113.5 passer rating, which is actually higher than Stafford’s 109.2. So why is Stafford the favorite? It’s the "eye test" stats. Stafford is dragging a Rams team that lost to Atlanta in Week 17 into a deep playoff run. Maye is incredible, but he’s playing behind a New England defense that just held the Chargers to 3 points in the Wild Card round.
Context matters.
- Matthew Stafford (LAR): 4,707 Yds, 46 TD, 8 INT
- Drake Maye (NE): 4,394 Yds, 31 TD, 8 INT
- Jared Goff (DET): 4,564 Yds, 34 TD, 8 INT
- Dak Prescott (DAL): 4,552 Yds, 30 TD, 10 INT
People see Dak's 404 completions—the most in the league—and think he’s elite. He is. But Dallas isn't even playing today. They’re home. Their defense was horrific, and no amount of "passing yards per game" could save them from a 7-9-1 finish. That’s the danger of looking at stats in a vacuum. You see a high number and assume it equals wins. It doesn't.
What the Receiving Leaders Reveal
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a year for the history books. 1,793 receiving yards. That is a massive number. It’s even more impressive when you realize he’s doing it in a Seattle offense that had to pivot when Sam Darnold (4,048 yards) became the starter.
Puka Nacua isn't far behind at ,1715 yards. Watching those two is like watching a masterclass in route running. While JSN is the yardage king, Davante Adams—now with the Rams—leads the league with 14 receiving touchdowns. It’s a pick-your-poison situation for defenses. You can stop the yardage or stop the scoring, but doing both is borderline impossible against this modern NFL spacing.
Why the Divisional Round Changes Everything
Today’s games aren't about season-long totals. They’re about specific efficiency metrics. Take the Buffalo Bills. James Cook III is the best back in the league right now by the numbers. But the Bills are heading into Denver to face a Broncos team that went 14-3.
Denver’s defense is anchored by Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto (14.0 sacks). If you look at the nfl football stats today, you’ll see Myles Garrett led the league with 23.0 sacks. He was a monster. But Garrett is out of the playoffs. The stats that matter now are "Pressure Rate" and "Third Down Conversion %."
The Broncos allow a league-low conversion rate on third-and-short. That’s where the Bills usually thrive with Josh Allen (3,668 passing yards, 25 TDs). It’s a collision of strengths.
The NFC West Civil War
The late game today is San Francisco at Seattle. This is the third time they’ve played this season. Seattle won the division with a 14-3 record. The 49ers finished 12-5.
Statistically, these teams are nearly identical.
Seattle has the #1 receiver.
The 49ers have the #1 scoring defense from the second half of the season.
When you look at the Wild Card results, the 49ers beat Philly 23-19. It wasn't pretty. It was a grind. Brock Purdy (3,300+ yards) hasn't put up the "video game" numbers of Stafford, but his "On-Target Throw %" is top 5. He doesn't miss. Seattle’s Sam Darnold, on the other hand, had 14 interceptions this year. That’s the highest among all remaining playoff QBs.
If Seattle loses today, everyone will point to that stat. Interceptions are the "silent killer" of playoff runs.
Defensive Anchors Nobody Talks About
We spend all our time talking about QBs. It’s a QB league. We get it. But look at Jordyn Brooks in Miami. 183 tackles. That’s an insane volume of work. Or Kevin Byard III in Chicago, who led the league with 7 interceptions.
Chicago is the #2 seed in the NFC for a reason. They aren't just a "Caleb Williams" story, though Williams (3,942 yards, 27 TDs) has been great. They win because their defense takes the ball away. They’ll play the Rams tomorrow, and that game is going to be a statistical nightmare for oddsmakers.
You have the highest-scoring offense (Rams) vs. the highest-takeaway defense (Bears).
Real-World Betting and Stat Analysis
If you're looking at these numbers to place a bet or set a fantasy lineup for a playoff challenge, stop looking at "Total Yards." Start looking at "Yards Per Play."
- Efficiency: Drake Maye leads the league in Yards Per Attempt ($8.9$). That means every time he throws, the chains move nearly 9 yards. That is unsustainable for a defense to stop over four quarters.
- Red Zone: The Rams score a TD on 71% of red zone trips.
- Sack Rate: Justin Herbert was sacked 54 times this year. That’s why the Chargers’ offense stalled in the Wild Card round. If a QB is under pressure more than 30% of the time, their passer rating drops by an average of 40 points.
Misconceptions About Today’s NFL Stats
A common mistake is thinking a "bad" record means "bad" players. Look at the Carolina Panthers. They finished 8-9. They won the NFC South. Most people laughed at them. But Jaycee Horn had 5 interceptions. Chuba Hubbard had 12 touchdowns.
They lost to the Rams 34-31 last week. They almost pulled off the upset of the decade. Why? Because Bryce Young finally settled into a rhythm, throwing for 264 yards and a TD. The stats said Carolina shouldn't have been in that game. The reality was different.
Also, can we talk about the "Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh" experiment? 10-7. A Wild Card exit. Rodgers threw for 327 completions, but he looked human. The stats show he’s still accurate, but his "Air Yards Per Attempt" has plummeted. He’s a check-down king now. That’s a stat that tells you a player's career is winding down, even if the "Total Yards" look okay on a spreadsheet.
Actionable Insights for the Playoffs
If you want to actually understand what’s happening with nfl football stats today, stop scrolling through the basic leaderboards. They're misleading. Instead, focus on these three specific areas to predict who moves on to the Conference Championships:
- Look at "EPA per Play" (Expected Points Added): This tells you how much a player actually contributes to the score. Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford are 1 and 2 here. It’s why they are the MVP favorites.
- Check the "Pressure Rate" of the defensive lines: Denver and Seattle lead the remaining teams. If they can get to the QB without blitzing, they win.
- Red Zone Defensive Efficiency: The 49ers are the best at forcing field goals instead of touchdowns. In a close playoff game, those 4-point swings are the difference between a trophy and a vacation.
The stats will continue to pile up as the Divisional round concludes tomorrow. Whether it's the Texans visiting the Patriots or the Rams heading to the frozen turf of Soldier Field, the numbers are just the starting point. The real game is played in the margins where the stats haven't been written yet.