The quarterback carousel never really stops spinning, but the NFL free agent QB 2025 market turned out to be one of the weirdest we've seen in a decade. Honestly, if you told a Vikings fan a year ago that Sam Darnold would parlay one season in Minnesota into a $100 million deal elsewhere, they probably would’ve laughed you out of the Twin Cities. But here we are. It's 2026, and looking back at that 2025 cycle, it’s clear that teams are finally realizing that "proven" veterans are often safer bets than rolling the dice on a rookie who might take three years to learn how to read a nickel blitz.
The reality of the NFL right now is that there simply aren't enough humans on earth capable of playing quarterback at a high level. That scarcity drove the 2025 market into a frenzy. Basically, teams weren't just paying for talent; they were paying for the "least bad" option to keep their GMs from getting fired.
The Sam Darnold Resurrection and the Seattle Jackpot
If you want to talk about the 2025 offseason, you have to start with Sam Darnold. He was the "biggest winner" according to almost every analyst, including Jeffri Chadiha at NFL.com. After a Pro Bowl-caliber 2024 season with the Vikings—dropping 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns—he became the belle of the ball. Seattle, desperate to move on from the Geno Smith era, didn't just sign him; they handed him a three-year, $100.5 million contract.
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It was a massive gamble. Seattle even looked at Aaron Rodgers, which sounds insane in hindsight, before deciding Darnold was their guy. They bet on the fact that reuniting him with Klint Kubiak (who he knew from San Francisco) would keep the magic alive. It’s a classic case of the NFL’s "second chance" economy. Sometimes, a guy just needs the right play-caller to stop being a "bust" and start being a $100 million man.
The Justin Fields Experiment in New York
While Darnold found his pot of gold, Justin Fields found a much rockier path. The New York Jets, always looking for a spark, gave him a two-year, $40 million deal with $30 million guaranteed. It felt like a steal at the time. A dual-threat guy with a high ceiling? Why not?
But the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" league. Fields struggled early in the 2025 season, and by November, he was riding the pine in favor of Tyrod Taylor. Now, as we look toward the 2026 cap, the Jets are staring at a $22 million dead-cap hit if they cut him. It’s a cautionary tale:
- Guarantees are everything. $30 million is a lot to pay for a backup.
- System fit matters. Putting a runner in a stagnant offense is a recipe for disaster.
- Patience is thin. In New York, it's non-existent.
The Jets basically bet on Fields' 2024 stint in Pittsburgh—where he went 4-2 as a starter before Russell Wilson took over—being the "real" him. It wasn't.
The Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers "Old Man" Tour
The 2025 market was also defined by the legends trying to prove they weren't washed. Russell Wilson signed a one-year, $10.5 million deal with the New York Giants. It was a "prove it" contract with a bunch of incentives that could've pushed it to $21 million. It’s kinda funny how a guy with a Super Bowl ring was suddenly making less than most middle-of-the-pack starters.
Then you had Aaron Rodgers. After the Jets implosion, he ended up in Pittsburgh. The Steelers, who have a weird knack for staying relevant with whoever is under center, decided that a 40-something Rodgers was better than any rookie they could find at pick 20.
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Comparison of 2025 Quarterback Contracts
Instead of a boring chart, let's look at how the money actually moved for the big names.
Sam Darnold (Seahawks)
The biggest payday. $100.5 million over three years. He got roughly $33.5 million a year, which, in the current market, is actually a bargain for a top-10 producer. Seattle used their $67.4 million in cap space to make it happen, though they had to trade away DK Metcalf to balance the books later.
Justin Fields (Jets)
The mid-tier gamble. Two years, $40 million. $20 million APY (Average Per Year). This is the "bridge" money. It’s enough to show you’re a starter, but short enough that the team can bail if you fall off a cliff.
Russell Wilson (Giants)
The veteran minimum-plus. $10.5 million for one year. This was purely about finding a home. Wilson wanted to show he could still lead a locker room, and the Giants wanted to see if they could avoid drafting a QB for one more year.
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Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
He wasn't technically a free agent in 2025 because he signed that monstrous four-year, $240 million extension in late 2024. But his contract loomed over the 2025 market. By restructuring his deal in March 2025, Dallas freed up $37 million in cap space. Without that move, the Cowboys wouldn't have been able to sign... well, anyone.
The Aging Veteran Conundrum: Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins is the human equivalent of a reliable Honda Civic. He’s going to get you where you’re going, but it might not be flashy. In 2025, his situation in Atlanta got messy. After Michael Penix Jr. took over the starting job, Cousins became the world’s most expensive backup.
By the end of the 2025 season, the Falcons were looking to restructure. They dropped his 2026 base salary to $2.1 million just to keep him tradeable. It shows the brutal reality of the NFL free agent QB 2025 class: if you aren't the future, you're just a cap casualty waiting to happen. Cousins, ever the pro, basically said, "I'd love to be back, but we'll see." Translation: he knows he’s probably headed to a TV booth or a QB-needy team like the Raiders or Titans soon.
Why Teams Keep Making the Same Mistakes
Why do GMs keep overpaying for guys like Darnold or taking flyers on benched QBs like Fields? Because the alternative is starting a rookie and praying.
Look at the 2025 draft class. You had guys like Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward coming in, but most teams are terrified of the "rookie wall." It takes years to develop a passer. If you’re a coach on the hot seat—like Brian Daboll was entering 2025—you’d rather bet on a veteran you’ve seen on film than a kid who’s never seen a disguise-zone defense.
Most people get it wrong because they think free agency is about finding a "franchise savior." It's not. Usually, it's about finding a "guy who won't lose us the game."
Actionable Insights for the Next Offseason
If you’re a fan or someone trying to project the next wave of quarterback movement, stop looking at the highlight reels. Start looking at the cap hits and the coaching staff.
- Follow the Coordinators: Darnold didn't go to Seattle for the weather. He went for Klint Kubiak. Quarterbacks are products of their environment. If a free agent moves to a system he’s played in before, his value doubles.
- The "Post-June 1" Date is Key: If you see a team talking about a QB after June 1st, they are trying to save money. The Jets' situation with Fields is the perfect example. Teams will wait until after that date to release or trade a player to spread out the "dead money" over two years.
- Cap Space is a Illusion: Don't get excited just because your team has $60 million in cap space. A single QB signing like Darnold's can eat half of that in an afternoon once you account for the signing bonus and structure.
- The Backup Market is the New Starter Market: With the way QBs get hurt now (shoutout to Michael Penix Jr. starting most of 2025 after Cousins), having a "high-end" backup is no longer a luxury. It’s a requirement.
The 2025 cycle taught us that the middle class of NFL quarterbacks is disappearing. You’re either a $50 million-a-year superstar like Dak Prescott, or you’re a "rental" trying to survive on one-year deals. There is no in-between anymore. If your team is looking for a signal-caller next year, expect more of the same: overpaying for potential and hoping the "old" guys have one more run left in them.