The regular season is a marathon, but this week? This is where the pavement turns to ice. If you’re looking at the slate of NFL games this week, you already know the stakes. We are officially in the Divisional Round of the 2026 playoffs, that sweet spot of the postseason where the "just happy to be here" teams have been filtered out and the true heavyweights start trading haymakers.
Honestly, the Wild Card round felt like a fever dream. We saw the Houston Texans absolutely dismantle the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and the Rams survived a 34-31 nail-biter against Carolina. But history tells us that what happened last week basically means nothing once the Saturday and Sunday afternoon shadows hit the turf. The Divisional Round is a different beast entirely. It’s the weekend where the No. 1 seeds—who have been sitting at home, resting, and probably overthinking—finally have to prove their bye week wasn't just a recipe for rust.
The Saturday Aftermath: Denver and Seattle Defend the Fortress
Before we look at the Sunday triple-header of chaos, we have to talk about what just happened on Saturday, January 17th. It set a tone that was, frankly, kind of terrifying for the road teams.
In Denver, the Buffalo Bills took the top-seeded Broncos to the absolute brink. It was a 33-30 overtime thriller that reminded everyone why Empower Field at Mile High is the hardest place to play in January. But the victory came with a massive asterisk that has the entire AFC shaking: Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle on the second-to-last play. He’s out for the playoffs. Denver is moving on to the AFC Championship, but they’re doing it with a backup under center. That changes everything.
Then you had the nightcap in Seattle. The 49ers traveled north to face the Seahawks, and let’s just say it wasn't the "NFC West classic" many expected. Seattle, the No. 1 seed, looked like they were playing a different sport. Kenneth Walker III was a human cheat code, racking up three touchdowns in a 41-6 blowout. It was the kind of statement win that makes you wonder if anyone can actually stop the Seahawks from hosting a trophy ceremony in a couple of weeks.
Sunday, Jan 18: Can Houston Keep the Magic Alive in Foxborough?
The first of the remaining NFL games this week kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC. The Houston Texans (No. 5) are heading into the frozen tundra of Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots (No. 2).
New England is a 3-point favorite, which feels low given their 14-3 regular-season record. But you’ve got to look at how Houston is playing right now. They didn't just beat the Steelers; they humiliated them 30-6. C.J. Stroud is playing with a level of "nothing to lose" confidence that is notoriously dangerous for high-seeded favorites.
Why the Patriots Might Struggle
- The Layoff Factor: The Patriots haven't played a meaningful snap in two weeks.
- The Houston Pass Rush: Will Anderson Jr. is currently playing like a man possessed. If he can get to the quarterback early, that Foxborough crowd is going to get real quiet, real fast.
- The "Slow Start" Trend: Higher seeds often come out flat in the first quarter of the Divisional Round.
If the Texans win this, they head to Denver for the AFC Championship. Given the Bo Nix injury, a Houston victory today suddenly makes the Texans the de facto favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. That is a wild sentence to write, but it's the reality of the bracket right now.
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The Soldier Field Nightcap: Rams vs. Bears
The finale of the NFL games this week is the one everyone in the Midwest has circled. At 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock, the Los Angeles Rams (No. 5) take on the Chicago Bears (No. 2) at Soldier Field.
Chicago is coming off a massive high after beating the Packers 31-27 in the Wild Card round. Yes, the Bears played last week despite being the 2-seed because of how the seeding fell this year, and that might actually be an advantage. They don't have the "rust" issue that Denver or Seattle had to shake off. They are battle-tested and playing at home in what is forecasted to be a classic, bone-chilling Chicago evening.
The Rams are interesting. They put up 34 points on Carolina, but their defense looked leaky. You can’t give up 31 points to the Panthers and expect to walk into Soldier Field and dominate. If the Rams want to win this, they have to turn it into a track meet, which is tough to do when the wind is whipping off Lake Michigan at 20 miles per hour.
Navigating the Noise: What Most People Get Wrong
Every year, people look at the regular season stats and assume the better seed will just "talent" their way through the Divisional Round. That’s rarely how it works. This week is about matchup psychology.
Take the Texans-Patriots game. Most analysts are looking at the Patriots' defensive rankings. But they should be looking at the Texans' red zone efficiency over the last month. Houston has become incredibly disciplined at finishing drives. In a game with a 40.5 over/under, one "settled for a field goal" drive can be the difference between a trip to the AFC Championship and a trip to the off-season.
Also, don't sleep on the backup quarterback narrative in Denver. While the Broncos have already advanced, the result of today's AFC game dictates who gets to face a Denver team that is suddenly very vulnerable. The "value" of winning today just quadrupled.
Actionable Insights for the Games Remaining
If you’re watching or tracking these games, keep an eye on these specific triggers:
- First Quarter Scoring: If the Patriots don't score on their first two possessions, the "rust" narrative is real. Look for Houston to capitalize on an early turnover.
- The Soldier Field Surface: Check the pre-game warmups. If the field looks "chewed up" or frozen, the Rams' speed advantage is effectively neutralized. That favors the Bears' ground-and-pound style.
- Third-Down Conversions: In January, the team that stays on the field wins. Both the Rams and Texans have been top-10 in third-down percentage over their last three games.
The path to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing. By the time the clock hits zero in Chicago tonight, we will have our final four. The winners today don't just get another game; they get a legitimate shot at history in a year where the dominant No. 1 seeds suddenly look a lot more human than they did in December.
Keep your remote close and your snacks ready. Sunday in the Divisional Round is the best day on the sporting calendar, and it's about to get very loud.
Next Steps for Fans:
- Check the final injury report for the Patriots' secondary before the 3:00 p.m. kickoff; any late scratches will drastically shift the Texans' passing strategy.
- Monitor the wind speed in Chicago; if it exceeds 15 mph, expect a heavy dose of the run game from both the Rams and Bears, likely hitting the "Under" on total points.
- Verify your streaming logins for Peacock and Paramount+ now to avoid the 2nd-quarter "server busy" panic during the primetime window.