Everyone is talking about the Raiders and their quarterback "problem," but honestly, the real story of the 2026 NFL draft isn't just about who goes first. It’s about how the board has basically been flipped upside down since the regular season ended. We finally have the first 18 picks locked in, and the top of the order is a chaotic mess of teams like the Jets and Cardinals who didn't expect to be sitting this high.
If you've been following the noise, you know the Las Vegas Raiders officially clinched the No. 1 overall pick. It’s a massive spot for a franchise that feels like it’s been stuck in a loop. But the big shocker? Dante Moore just threw a wrench into everyone's plans. On January 14, the Oregon star announced he’s heading back to school for 2026. Suddenly, the "consensus" QB1 is gone, and NFL front offices are scrambling to re-evaluate what this quarterback class actually looks like.
The Raiders’ New Dilemma at No. 1
With Moore out of the picture, the nfl latest mock draft projections are coalescing around one name: Fernando Mendoza. The Indiana signal-caller has had a meteoric rise. We’re talking about a guy who was basically a curiosity a year ago and is now a Heisman winner looking like the locked-in top pick. He’s 6'5", he’s got the arm, and most importantly, he doesn't turn the ball over.
But is he a "sure thing"? Not really. Scouts like Mike Renner and Field Yates have pointed out he almost never takes snaps from under center. In a league that’s moving back toward heavy play-action and under-center looks, that’s a learning curve.
- Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana. They can't pass on a passer again.
- New York Jets: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State. With Moore staying in Eugene, the Jets might pivot to the best defensive player on the board.
- Arizona Cardinals: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami. Monti Ossenfort loves guys with high motors, and Bain is a game-wrecker.
- Tennessee Titans: Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn. A massive, violent athlete who fits the "build from the trenches" philosophy.
- New York Giants: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State. They need to give their offense a pulse, and Tate is the most polished route-runner we've seen in a while.
The Jets at No. 2 are the real wildcard now. Do they take a chance on Ty Simpson from Alabama? Or do they grab a "safe" blue-chip defender like Arvell Reese? Reese is basically being called the next Micah Parsons because of how he can blitz from the edge or drop into coverage. Honestly, watching his tape from the Buckeyes' run this year, the comparison isn't even that hyperbolic.
Why Defensive Value is Skyrocketing
Because the quarterback class feels a bit "thin" at the very top after Mendoza, we are seeing defensive players climb into spots they usually don't occupy. Take the Cleveland Browns at No. 6. They’ve been linked to offensive tackles like Spencer Fano or Francis Mauigoa, but don’t be surprised if they go after a guy like Peter Woods from Clemson.
Interior pressure is becoming the most expensive commodity in the NFL. Teams are realizing that if you can't get a superstar QB, you better have the guys who can hit them.
Rueben Bain Jr. is a name you’re going to hear a lot. Some scouts worry about his arm length—he’s a bit of a "tweener"—but the guy just produces. He had four sacks in the College Football Playoff alone. You can't coach that kind of production. Then there's Caleb Downs, the Ohio State safety. Most experts consider him the safest player in the entire draft. He’s the kind of player you draft, plug in, and don't worry about for ten years.
The Mid-First Round Chaos
Picks 19 through 24 were just finalized after the Wild Card round. The Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting at No. 21 after getting bounced by the Texans. They actually have 12 picks in this draft, which is insane.
Most people expect them to look at the secondary. Someone like Jermod McCoy from Tennessee or Avieon Terrell from Clemson. But with that many picks, Mike Tomlin might just get aggressive and move up. They need a long-term answer at quarterback, and if Ty Simpson starts to slide, the Steelers are the team to watch.
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The Dallas Cowboys are in a weird spot too. They’ve got their own pick plus a late first-rounder from Green Bay (No. 20). They have massive holes at linebacker. CJ Allen from Georgia is the name most often linked to them. He’s a classic "read-and-react" linebacker who would instantly fix their run defense issues.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Class
The biggest misconception right now is that this is a "weak" draft. It’s not weak; it’s just lopsided.
If you need a wide receiver or a defensive end, you are in luck. The depth at WR is wild. Beyond Carnell Tate, you have Jordyn Tyson from Arizona State and Makai Lemon from USC. These are guys who would be WR1s in almost any other year.
The RB class is also surprisingly strong. Jeremiyah Love from Notre Dame is a legitimate home-run threat. He’s being compared to Alvin Kamara because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. In an NFL where "positionless" players are the trend, Love is going to make some offensive coordinator very happy in the late first or early second round.
Actionable Insights for Draft Fans
If you're trying to keep up with the moving parts, focus on the medicals and the "declare" dates. The deadline for underclassmen is January 23 for those in the National Championship.
- Watch the Senior Bowl: This is where guys like Fernando Mendoza can prove they can handle NFL-style playbooks.
- Don't overreact to "pro-day" 40 times: Speed is great, but guys like Arvell Reese are going to fly up boards because of their "game speed" and instincts, not just a track time.
- Monitor the Transfer Portal: It sounds weird for the NFL draft, but where players finished their careers (like Carson Beck at Miami or Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss) tells you a lot about their adaptability.
The draft is in Pittsburgh this year, April 23-25. Between now and then, expect at least three more "flavor of the week" quarterbacks to emerge. But for now, the path to the No. 1 pick runs through Indiana.
Start looking at the roster needs for the teams in the 10-15 range. That’s where the value is. Teams like the Bengals and Dolphins are going to get elite defensive talent simply because everyone ahead of them is panicking about quarterbacks.
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Check the updated draft order regularly. With the divisional rounds coming up, picks 25 through 32 are still up for grabs. That’s where the real championship-building happens.