Let's be real for a second. The NFL MVP award is basically a quarterback trophy at this point. If you aren't under center, you're pretty much just an honorable mention unless you're putting up video game numbers that defy human logic.
We just saw Josh Allen snag the 2024 regular season MVP at the 2025 NFL Honors, and honestly, the vote was a mess. It was the closest race we've seen since 2016. Allen ended up with 383 points, barely squeaking past Lamar Jackson’s 362. What makes it weird? Lamar was the first-team All-Pro. Usually, the All-Pro QB is a lock for MVP. But this time, the voters decided that "value" meant something different.
👉 See also: What is the score of today's Seahawks game? (Live Divisional Updates)
The NFL MVP—officially the Associated Press Most Valuable Player—is strictly a regular-season honor. That’s a huge distinction. People get it twisted all the time. You could throw six interceptions in a playoff game, but if you were a god for the 17 games before that, the trophy is still yours.
What Actually Goes Into the NFL MVP Vote?
It's not just about the stats. If it were, we’d just hand it to the guy with the most yards and go home. Instead, a panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters decide who "valuable" really is. Since 2022, they've used a weighted voting system where they rank their top five picks.
10 points for first place. 5 for second. It drops from there.
This system was supposed to make things clearer, but it’s actually highlighted how much "narrative" matters. Take Josh Allen’s win. He didn’t lead the league in passing yards. He didn’t have the best passer rating. But he did account for 40 total touchdowns (28 passing, 12 rushing) and dragged a Buffalo Bills team that everyone thought would crater after trading Stefon Diggs to a 13-4 record.
Voters love a "he did more with less" story.
The Quarterback Stranglehold
Since 1957, quarterbacks have taken home the hardware 50 times. Running backs have only won it four times in the undisputed era.
Think about that.
To win as a non-QB, you basically have to be a glitch in the Matrix. When Adrian Peterson won in 2012, he had over 2,000 yards and was coming off a shredded ACL. When Lawrence Taylor won it as a linebacker in 1986, he was terrifying every offensive coordinator in the league.
The Weird Stats Behind the Wins
People often confuse the NFL MVP with the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY). Kinda makes sense, right? But OPOY is usually the "Best Stats" award. MVP is the "Most Important Person" award.
In the 2024 season, Saquon Barkley was an absolute monster. He led the league with 2,005 rushing yards and broke the Eagles' single-season record. He won OPOY. But he finished third in the MVP race. Why? Because as great as he was, the voters felt Philadelphia’s success was more about the system or the QB, whereas Allen was the literal engine of the Buffalo offense.
Wait, what about the "Unanimous" club?
Only two guys have ever swept all 50 first-place votes:
- Tom Brady (2010)
- Lamar Jackson (2019)
Lamar almost did it again in 2023, falling just one vote short. The fact that he dropped from first-team All-Pro in 2024 to second place in the MVP race shows how quickly the "value" conversation shifts.
Why the Playoffs Don't Matter (For This)
This is the most frustrating part for fans. The voting happens after Week 18 but before the first playoff snap.
The results are kept secret until the NFL Honors show, which happens the week of the Super Bowl. This leads to those awkward moments where the regular season NFL MVP is sitting at home on his couch because he got bounced in the Divisional Round.
There’s also the "MVP Curse." For a long time, if you won the MVP, you weren't winning the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes finally broke that 23-year-old hex in 2022, but the history is littered with guys like Matt Ryan (2016) and Cam Newton (2015) who had legendary regular seasons only to fall apart on the biggest stage.
Actionable Insights for Following the MVP Race
If you're trying to predict who will win the NFL MVP next season, or if you're looking at betting markets, keep these things in mind:
- Look at the Record: Only twice since 1982 has the MVP come from a team with fewer than 11 wins. If your team isn't a top-two seed, your QB probably isn't winning it.
- The Narrative "Pivot": Watch for the moment the media starts saying, "Who would this team even be without him?" That's usually the week the MVP is won.
- Voter Fatigue is Real: Voters hate picking the same guy twice in a row. It’s why Aaron Rodgers’ back-to-back wins (2020-2021) were so impressive.
- Check the All-Pro List: Usually, the All-Pro QB is the MVP. When they differ, like with Allen and Jackson, it's a signal that the voters are prioritizing "impact" over "efficiency."
Keep an eye on the late-season games in December. That’s where the "MVP moments" happen. A fourth-quarter comeback in a blizzard against a division rival does more for a player's MVP chances than 400 yards in a Week 3 blowout.
💡 You might also like: James Pearce Jr High School Success: Why He’s Still the King of the SEC Edge
Basically, the award is a snapshot of who owned the league's conversation for four months. It's not always fair, and it's definitely not always about the best player, but it’s the most prestigious individual title in the sport for a reason.
Pay attention to how the "big four"—Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, and Burrow—handle their rosters next year. With the way the voting is shifting toward rewarding solo carrying, the next winner might not even be the guy with the most rings.