The NFL MVP award is basically a quarterback trophy with a fancy name. Seriously. If you aren't under center, you might as well be invisible to the 50 people who actually decide this thing.
Look at the history. Since 2000, only four non-quarterbacks have taken it home. Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson. That’s the list.
Peterson was the last one to pull it off, and that was way back in 2012. He had to rush for 2,097 yards—nearly breaking the all-time record—just to edge out the guys throwing the ball.
Honestly, the "Value" in Most Valuable Player has become a math equation. It’s about who touches the ball every play and who keeps the betting lines moving.
The Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson Chaos
Last year’s race was a total mess. Josh Allen won his first NFL MVP at the February 2025 honors, but it came with a side of controversy that's still being argued in dive bars from Buffalo to Baltimore.
Allen got 27 first-place votes. Lamar Jackson got 23.
The weird part? Jackson was the first-team All-Pro quarterback. The same group of voters picked Jackson as the best QB in the league, but then turned around and said Allen was more "valuable."
It doesn't make much sense if you look at the raw totals. Lamar threw for more yards and had a higher passer rating. He was the first player in history to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 800 in the same season.
But Allen? He had 12 rushing touchdowns. He dragged a Bills team that everyone thought would suck after trading Stefon Diggs to a 13-4 record.
Voters clearly rewarded the "carrying the team" narrative. They saw Allen as the guy doing more with less, even if the All-Pro honors suggested Jackson was the superior technician at the position.
Why the 2025 Race Is Different
Now we're sitting here in January 2026, and the board has flipped completely. As the regular season wraps up, Matthew Stafford is the heavy favorite at -450 odds.
Drake Maye is right on his heels.
Stafford’s season has been a bit of a throwback. He’s putting up massive passing numbers—42 touchdowns and nearly 4,500 yards. He’s the "peak veteran" candidate.
Maye is the "Year 2 breakout" story. It’s the same arc we saw with Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar in 2019. Maye has been a statistical god in EPA (Expected Points Added) and total yards gained.
One thing is for sure: voters love a narrative. Stafford winning at this stage of his career feels like a "lifetime achievement" bonus mixed with a stellar season. Maye winning feels like the start of a new era.
The Kicker Who Stole the Show
You can't talk about the NFL MVP without mentioning Mark Moseley. It’s the ultimate "wait, what?" fact of pro football.
In 1982, a kicker won the MVP.
It was a strike-shortened year. Only nine games were played. Moseley made 20 of 21 field goals for Washington.
Imagine that today. Imagine Justin Tucker or Brandon Aubrey winning MVP over Patrick Mahomes. The internet would actually explode.
People like to point to Moseley as proof that the award used to be more open-minded, but honestly, it was just a weird year where nobody else stood out. Dan Fouts was throwing for 320 yards a game, but the voters went with the guy who didn't miss.
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The Jerry Rice Snub
If you want to get a 49ers fan started, just mention 1987. Jerry Rice caught 22 touchdowns in only 12 games.
That is an insane stat.
He lost the MVP to John Elway. Elway is a legend, obviously, but his stats that year weren’t even close to Rice’s impact. Rice was literally scoring twice a game as a wide receiver.
It’s the biggest piece of evidence that the award is biased against pass-catchers. If Rice couldn't win it in '87, a receiver probably never will.
How the Voting Actually Works
It isn't a secret society, but it is a small one.
- 50 Voters: A nationwide panel of media members.
- Ranked Choice: Since 2022, they rank five players.
- Point System: 10 points for 1st, 5 for 2nd, 3 for 3rd, 2 for 4th, 1 for 5th.
- Timing: Votes are due before the playoffs start.
This last part is crucial. Nothing that happens in the Wild Card or Divisional rounds matters. You could throw for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns in the Super Bowl and it wouldn't move your MVP stock one inch.
This is why "regular season hero" is often a label for MVP winners who flame out in January.
The Quarterback Dominance
The stats don't lie.
| Era | QB Winners | Non-QB Winners |
|---|---|---|
| 2010s | 9 | 1 (Adrian Peterson) |
| 2020s (so far) | 5 | 0 |
The game is just too slanted toward passing now. Rules protect the QB. Offenses are designed for the QB. The MVP award has simply followed the money and the rules.
What to Watch for Next
If you're tracking the race for the next few years, watch the "Narrative Arc."
Voters get bored. They have "voter fatigue." It’s why LeBron James doesn’t have 10 MVPs and why Patrick Mahomes doesn't win every single year despite being the best player on the planet.
Keep an eye on the young guys like Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels. The media loves a "new king" story. If they put up Top 5 stats and their team wins 11 games, they’ll jump over a veteran who had a slightly better season every time.
Next Steps for Fans:
- Check the All-Pro lists: If a player is a First-Team All-Pro but doesn't win MVP (like Lamar Jackson recently), it usually signals a massive shift in how voters define "value."
- Watch the Week 18 lines: MVP odds shift violently in the final seven days. One four-touchdown game in January can erase four months of consistency.
- Don't ignore the "EPA" stat: Advanced metrics like Expected Points Added are becoming the new standard for how the 50 voters judge quarterback efficiency over raw yardage.
The race is never just about who is the best. It's about who the world is talking about when the ballots are due.
Check the final 2025 voting results when they're released in February—stafford's lead looks safe, but the gap between him and Maye will tell us everything about where the award is heading in the late 2020s.