It is that time of year again where everyone thinks they have a "lock" on the board. You know how it goes. You look at the schedule, see a favorite, and think there's no way they lose. But if you've been around the block, you know that the NFL odds week 1 2025 are basically a giant trap designed by Vegas to separate you from your hard-earned cash.
The 2025 season is kicking off in a way that feels both familiar and totally chaotic. We have the Philadelphia Eagles coming off a massive 40-22 Super Bowl LIX win over the Kansas City Chiefs, and naturally, they are the ones opening the curtain. But don't let the "defending champ" tag fool you. Week 1 is historically where the weirdest stuff happens.
The Opening Night Drama in Philly
Philly vs. Dallas. It doesn’t get much bigger than that for a season opener. The Eagles are sitting as 7.5-point favorites at most shops, and honestly, the line movement has been fascinating. It opened at -7, but once news broke about the Cowboys trading away Micah Parsons—yeah, Jerry actually did it—the money flooded toward the Birds.
Dak Prescott is coming back from that nasty hamstring injury that ended his 2024 campaign early. He's 2-11 against the spread in his last 13 starts as an underdog. That is a terrifying stat if you’re a Cowboys fan. But then you look at the divisional history. Since 2017, Dallas is 7-1 against the spread in September division games. It’s a classic case of "unstoppable force meets immovable object," or maybe just two teams that really, really hate each other.
The total is sitting around 47.5. It feels high for a first game where everyone is still shaking off the rust, but with Jalen Hurts and a healthy Saquon Barkley, people expect fireworks. Just remember: opening night unders have been a thing lately.
Brazil, Mahomes, and the Friday Night Special
The NFL is going back to São Paulo on Friday, September 5th. This time it's the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are 3-point favorites, which feels low for a team that just played in the Super Bowl, right?
Well, travel is the great equalizer. This is a "home" game for the Chargers technically, but nobody is at home in Brazil. Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 straight up and against the spread in his last six Week 1 games played away from Arrowhead. The dude just doesn't lose in September openers. On the flip side, the Chargers are historically bad in international games, going 0-3 against the spread.
The total for this one is 45.5. It's a neutral site, a long flight, and a Friday night—weird vibes all around. Betting on Mahomes is usually the smart move, but Jim Harbaugh’s second year in LA has people thinking the Chargers might finally have the discipline to keep it close.
Why the Bengals Are Making Everyone Nervous
If there is one team that has burned bettors more than any other in Week 1, it's the Cincinnati Bengals. They are facing the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and the NFL odds week 1 2025 have the Bengals as 5.5-point favorites.
Joe Burrow is elite. We all know this. But for some reason, the Bengals start every season like they forgot how to play football for the first three weeks. They are notoriously slow starters. Cleveland’s defense is still a nightmare to deal with, and getting 5.5 points in a divisional scrap feels like a gift.
- The Trend: Bengals have struggled to cover early in the season for three straight years.
- The Reality: At some point, that has to change, but is it this year?
- The Line: It has stayed pretty steady at -5.5, which tells me the sharps and the public are in a stalemate.
Sunday Night Heavyweights: Ravens at Bills
This is the game I've been circling. Baltimore at Buffalo. The Bills are currently a 1.5-point favorite, but this line has been flipping back and forth like a pancake. At some books, the Ravens are actually the slight favorite.
This is the highest total on the board for Week 1 at 51.5 points. You have Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson on the same field. It’s a track meet waiting to happen. However, the Bills' defense at home is a different beast. Usually, when everyone expects a 35-31 shootout, we end up with a 20-17 defensive struggle because the coaches are playing it safe in the first game.
Keep an eye on the weather in Orchard Park. Even in early September, the wind can do some funky things to the kicking game and the deep ball.
The Best of the Rest: Spreads to Watch
There are some absolute "stinkers" on the schedule that might actually be the best betting opportunities. Look at the Steelers at Jets. The Steelers are 3-point favorites in a game with a total of 38.5. That is the lowest total of the week. Basically, the oddsmakers are saying this is going to be a punting competition.
Then you have the Broncos favored by 8.5 over the Titans. That’s the biggest spread of the week. Bo Nix in year two? The hype is real in Denver. But laying almost 9 points in the NFL is always a risky proposition, especially against a Titans team that revamped its secondary in the offseason.
Week 1 Odds Quick Look:
- Commanders -6 vs. Giants: Jayden Daniels has high expectations.
- Cardinals -6 at Saints: Arizona is a trendy pick to win the NFC West this year.
- Jaguars -3 vs. Panthers: Is Bryce Young finally going to take the leap?
- Vikings -1.5 at Bears: The Monday Night Football finale features two young QBs in J.J. McCarthy and Caleb Williams.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest mistake people make with NFL odds week 1 2025 is overreacting to last year. We think we know who these teams are because of what they did in December. We don't.
Rosters change. Coaching staffs change. Look at the Bears. They finished 2024 strong, but now they’re home underdogs to a Vikings team with a second-year quarterback. The public tends to bet on the "narrative," while the smart money looks at the matchups.
Another trap is the "Super Bowl Hangover." While the Eagles looked dominant in February, the loser of the Super Bowl—the Chiefs in this case—often struggles to cover in Week 1 of the following year. It’s an emotional and physical drain that people underestimate.
Actionable Insights for Your Sunday
If you're going to put skin in the game, you need to be smart about it. Don't just chase the big names.
- Watch the "Key Numbers": In the NFL, 3 and 7 are everything. If you see a line move from -2.5 to -3.5, that's a massive shift. Try to grab the 3 or the 7 whenever possible.
- Teasers are your friend: If you like the Eagles but don't want to lay 7.5, tease them down to 1.5 and pair them with another favorite like the Bengals at -0.5. It's a much safer way to play the opening week jitters.
- Respect the home dog: Divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are historically a gold mine. Teams like the Browns (+5.5) and the Seahawks (+1.5) fit this mold perfectly.
- Ignore the Preseason: I can't stress this enough. Preseason stats are fake. Don't let a "perfect" preseason from a backup QB trick you into thinking the offense is ready for a Top 5 defense.
The best thing you can do right now is check the injury reports for the Friday and Sunday games. Since the Micah Parsons trade, the Dallas defense has been a question mark, but keep an eye on who is actually starting on that offensive line for the Giants before you trust them to cover 6 points against Washington.
📖 Related: Who Plays Tonight in College Football: Why the Thursday Void Matters
Get your bankroll ready, but don't blow it all on the Thursday night game. It’s a long season, and Week 1 is just the beginning of the madness.
Next Steps:
- Monitor the practice participation reports for Dak Prescott's hamstring leading up to Thursday.
- Compare the moneyline value on the Falcons vs. Buccaneers game, as that line is the most volatile in the NFC South right now.