The NFL Offensive Player of the Year award is weird. Honestly, it’s the award that exists mostly because the MVP has become a "Best Quarterback" trophy. If you look at the history of the NFL OPOY by year, you start to see a much more interesting story of the league's evolution than the MVP list provides. It’s where the wide receivers and workhorse running backs actually get their flowers.
While the MVP is often about who steered the ship to a 13-4 record, the OPOY is usually about who broke the game. Think about it. When Christian McCaffrey took it home for the 2023 season, it wasn't just because he was "good." It was because he was the entire engine of the 49ers' offense. He led the league in touches, yards from scrimmage, and touchdowns. He was inescapable.
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The Workhorse Era and the Shift to the Air
If you go back and look at the NFL OPOY by year during the late 90s and early 2000s, it was a total gauntlet of legendary running backs. Marshall Faulk literally owned this award. He won it three times in a row from 1999 to 2001. That’s insane. He was the prototype for the modern "dual-threat" back, putting up 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in a single season.
Then you had guys like Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander. They were getting 350 carries a year and scoring 20+ touchdowns. The league was different then. Teams ran the ball until the wheels fell off. But then, things started to shift. The rules changed to protect receivers. Pass interference became easier to call. Suddenly, the stat sheets started looking like Madden numbers.
When Quarterbacks Steal the Show
Every once in a while, a QB puts up a season so statistically dominant that the voters can't give the OPOY to anyone else. Usually, this happens when someone breaks a massive record.
- Peyton Manning (2013): 55 touchdowns. You can't ignore 55 touchdowns. He was basically a coordinator on the field for the Broncos.
- Patrick Mahomes (2018): This was his "coming out party" where he threw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. It was terrifying for the rest of the AFC.
- Drew Brees (2008, 2011): Brees is an interesting case because he actually has more OPOY trophies (2) than MVPs (0). It proves the OPOY is the "Stat King" award.
The Wide Receiver Revolution
We are living in the golden age of the wideout. If you track the NFL OPOY by year over the last five seasons, the trend is obvious. Michael Thomas broke the catches record in 2019 and won it. Cooper Kupp had the "Triple Crown" in 2021—leading the league in catches, yards, and TDs—and it was one of the easiest votes in history. Justin Jefferson followed that up in 2022 by just being completely uncoverable.
What's cool about the OPOY is that it rewards the "unprecedented." When Justin Jefferson is high-pointing balls over three defenders, he’s not just playing football; he’s creating a highlight reel that dictates the league's marketing. Voters love that. They want the guy who makes them lean forward in their seats.
Why the OPOY and MVP Split Happens
It’s kinda funny. People get mad when the OPOY and MVP are different people, but it actually makes a lot of sense. The MVP is about value. If you take Aaron Rodgers off those 2020-2021 Packers teams, they probably win four games. That’s value.
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But the OPOY is about production.
In 2017, Todd Gurley was the OPOY. He was the most explosive player in football. Tom Brady won MVP that year because he was 40 years old and leading the Patriots to another Super Bowl berth. Both things can be true at once. One guy had the better "story," and the other guy had the better "season."
The Defensive Bias
Okay, this is a bit of a tangent, but it matters for context. There is no "Defensive Player of the Year" equivalent for the MVP. Since the MVP is almost always an offensive player (usually a QB), the OPOY can feel redundant. But without it, we’d never celebrate the seasons like Chris Johnson’s 2,000-yard rushing year in 2009. CJ2K didn't win MVP—Peyton Manning did—but that 2,000-yard milestone deserved a trophy. The OPOY is that trophy.
The "Snub" Factor and Voting Politics
Let's talk about the 2021 season for a second. Cooper Kupp was the OPOY. He deserved it. But some people argued that Jonathan Taylor, who had 1,811 rushing yards, was more "offensive" in his impact. This is where the NFL OPOY by year list gets controversial.
Voters are human. They get "bored" of certain players. They like new narratives. Tyreek Hill was on pace for 2,000 yards for a huge chunk of 2023, and if he had hit that mark, McCaffrey might have lost the award despite having a better all-around year. Records matter. Round numbers like 2,000 or 50 matter to the people holding the pens.
Mapping the Historical Winners
If you're looking for the specific names that defined their eras, you have to look at the clusters.
- The Early 70s: It was all about the "Ground and Pound." Larry Csonka and O.J. Simpson (back when he was just a ballplayer) dominated the conversation.
- The 80s/90s: Jerry Rice. That’s the list. He won it in '87 and '93. It’s actually wild he didn't win it more, but that's what happens when you're competing against prime Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith.
- The Modern Era: It's a toss-up between the "Alpha Receiver" and the "Workhorse Back."
Since 2010, the award has been split almost evenly between QBs, RBs, and WRs. This is the only major NFL award that has this kind of positional diversity. You won't find a linebacker winning OPOY, obviously, but you also won't find a QB winning it every single year just because he's a QB.
How to Predict Future Winners
If you want to guess who wins next year, stop looking at the betting favorites for MVP. Look for the player who is most likely to break a single-season record.
Is there a receiver who could get to 2,000 yards?
Is there a running back who might score 25 touchdowns?
Is there a rookie QB who might throw for 4,500 yards?
Those are your OPOY candidates. It’s a "Video Game Stats" award. To win, you generally have to be the #1 player at your specific position by a wide margin. Being "pretty good" across the board doesn't get you an OPOY. You need to be a statistical outlier.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
- Look for the "Triple Crown": If a receiver is leading in catches, yards, and TDs by Week 12, they are almost a lock for the award.
- Monitor the 2,000-Yard Watch: Whether it's rushing or receiving, 2,000 is the magic number that forces voters to pay attention.
- Ignore Team Record (Mostly): Unlike the MVP, the OPOY doesn't necessarily have to be on a 1st-seed team. If a guy puts up historic numbers on a 9-8 team, he’s still in the hunt.
- Fade the "Efficient" QB: A quarterback who throws 30 TDs and only 4 picks might win MVP because he's "efficient" and "winning," but he won't win OPOY over a guy with 50 TDs or a RB with 2,200 total yards.
The NFL OPOY by year serves as a perfect time capsule for how the game is played. It captures the transition from the muddy, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era to the high-flying, pass-happy league we see today. It’s the award for the pure athletes, the guys who make the "impossible" catches and the "how did he do that" runs. While the MVP is the most prestigious, the OPOY is often the most fun to track because it celebrates the sheer talent of the league’s biggest stars regardless of what position they play.
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Next Steps for Deep Diving into NFL Stats:
- Check the official Pro Football Reference pages to see the "Yards from Scrimmage" leaders alongside the OPOY winners; you'll notice they almost always overlap.
- Compare the OPOY winner to the All-Pro First Team selections. Usually, the OPOY is the person who received the most votes for the All-Pro team at any offensive position.
- Watch the film from Marshall Faulk's 2000 season or Cooper Kupp's 2021 season to see what a "statistically perfect" year actually looks like on the field.