The dust hasn't even settled on one of the wildest Wild Card weekends in recent memory, and already the chatter is deafening. If you’re looking at the nfl playoff picture bracket right now, it looks a lot different than anyone predicted back in August. Seriously, who had the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks as the two number-one seeds?
It’s been a chaotic road. The perennial heavyweights are mostly gone. No Mahomes. No Lamar. Even the Lions, who were the darlings of the league for two years, are watching from their couches.
We have eight teams left. Four games this weekend. The stakes? They're basically as high as they get before you start talking about rings.
The AFC Side of the NFL Playoff Picture Bracket
Denver is currently sitting pretty. They earned that bye week with a 14-3 record, mostly by winning games that would have given most fans a heart attack. They went 11-2 in one-score games this year. That’s either incredible coaching by Sean Payton or just a massive amount of luck that’s eventually going to run out.
On Saturday, they’ll host the Buffalo Bills at 4:35 p.m. ET. Josh Allen basically carried that team past Jacksonville last Sunday. He ran 11 times, scored twice, and looked like a human battering ram. The Bills' run defense is a bit of a sieve, though, and Denver knows it. If the Broncos can’t exploit that, Allen will eventually find a way to break their hearts in the fourth quarter.
Then you've got the Sunday afternoon clash. The Houston Texans are traveling to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots at 3:05 p.m. ET.
People are sleeping on this Texans defense. They just embarrassed Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, holding them to six measly points. C.J. Stroud did have five fumbles in that game, which is... well, it's bad. You can't do that against a Bill Belichick-less (but still disciplined) Patriots squad and expect to win. Drake Maye looked steady in his first playoff start against the Chargers, and that defense in New England is still playing like it’s 2004.
What’s Happening in the NFC?
Seattle is the team to beat. Period. They ground the 49ers' offense into dust in the final week of the regular season, and now they have to do it again this Saturday night at 8:15 p.m. ET.
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The big story here is Sam Darnold. He’s on an oblique injury report, but he told reporters the chance of him missing the game is "closer to zero." The Seahawks paid him over $100 million to be the guy, and so far, he’s actually being the guy. But Brock Purdy is coming off a massive comeback win against the Eagles. San Francisco is playing on short rest—only five days—which is a huge disadvantage in the postseason.
Over in Chicago, the Bears are hosting their first divisional-round game in 15 years. It’s been a long time coming for that fan base. Caleb Williams did just enough to get past Green Bay in a 31-27 thriller, but now they face the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Rams are weirdly dangerous. They survived a shootout with the Panthers, winning 34-31. Matthew Stafford is still slinging it, and they have this "party crasher" energy that makes them terrifying for a young team like Chicago.
Why This Year is Different
Honestly, the lack of a "clear-cut" favorite is what makes this bracket so fascinating. Usually, there's one team that feels inevitable. This year? It feels like anyone could win.
- The Underdogs: The Bills and 49ers are both #6 seeds who just knocked off #3 seeds on the road.
- The New Blood: New England, Chicago, and Seattle were all out of the playoffs last year.
- The Missing Giants: No Kansas City Chiefs. It's the first time in the Mahomes era they haven't made the cut.
The Road to Super Bowl LX
Everything is pointing toward Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on February 8th. But to get there, these teams have to navigate a bracket that has already chewed up the defending champion Eagles and the "re-energized" Steelers.
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If you're betting on the outcome, you're braver than I am. The Texans have won 10 in a row. The Seahawks look invincible at home. The Bills have Josh Allen. It’s a mess, but it’s the best kind of mess.
Practical Steps for Fans
If you're trying to keep up with the moving parts of the nfl playoff picture bracket this week, here is how you should handle the Divisional Round:
- Clear your Saturday afternoon: The Bills vs. Broncos game starts the triple-header of weekend action on CBS.
- Watch the injury reports: Specifically, keep an eye on Sam Darnold’s oblique and Nico Collins’ status for the Texans. Collins is dealing with a head injury that could drastically change Houston's offensive ceiling.
- Check the weather in Denver and Foxboro: We're looking at mid-January games in outdoor stadiums. Wind and snow are the great equalizers, and they favor the teams that can actually run the ball—looking at you, Denver and New England.
- Download the broadcast apps: Fox One and Paramount+ are going to be your best friends if you aren't tied to a cable box this weekend.
The Divisional Round is widely considered the best weekend of football in the entire year. With the way these matchups are set, 2026 isn't going to be an exception.