Vegas is playing games with us again. Honestly, if you looked at the NFL point spreads for week 8 and felt like someone left a toddler in charge of the oddsmaking room, you aren't alone. We’ve got double-digit favorites that look like traps and "pick'em" games that feel like they should be blowouts. It’s messy.
By late October, the NFL usually has a hierarchy. We know who is good. We know who is trash. But 2025 has been a fever dream of injuries and inconsistent quarterback play. When the Kansas City Chiefs open as nearly 10-point favorites over the Washington Commanders, it sounds right until you realize Jayden Daniels is out and Marcus Mariota is under center.
The lines are moving fast.
👉 See also: Broncos vs Bills 2023: What Really Happened on That Wild Monday Night
The Heavy Hitters and the Scary Spreads
The biggest eye-popper of the week has to be the Indianapolis Colts sitting as 14-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, you read that right. Two touchdowns. In a divisional game.
Normally, taking a double-digit favorite in the NFL is a recipe for a bad Sunday afternoon. But the Titans have looked historically stagnant. Still, 14 points is a massive number to cover for a Colts team that hasn't exactly been the 2007 Patriots. If the line holds at -14.5, you're basically betting that Tennessee won't even show up to the stadium.
Then you have the Kansas City Chiefs at -11.5 or -12.5 depending on where you shop. Patrick Mahomes has been lighting it up, leading the league in touchdowns, and getting Rashee Rice back has clearly changed their ceiling. But the Commanders' defense, while statistically poor, has a way of sticking around just long enough to ruin a spread.
Why the NFC North is Ruining Everything
Look at the Green Bay Packers traveling to Pittsburgh. Most books had the Packers as 3-point road favorites. This is a "respect the brand" line if I've ever seen one. The Steelers at Acrisure Stadium (it'll always be Heinz to me, let's be real) are a different animal under the lights.
Green Bay has a monstrous +1.2 net yards per play this season. Pittsburgh is barely in the black at +0.1. On paper? Packers by a mile. In reality? It’s a Sunday Night Football game in late October in Pennsylvania. These spreads don't account for the "weirdness" factor of Mike Tomlin as a home underdog.
NFL Point Spreads for Week 8: The "Public" Traps
The Philadelphia Eagles opened at -7.5 against the New York Giants. Two weeks ago, the Giants actually beat the Birds 34-17. So why are the Eagles favored by more than a touchdown now?
It's the "correction." Vegas thinks that first game was a fluke. They’re betting on the Eagles' roster talent to overwhelm a Giants team that is missing key pieces in the backfield. If you're looking at the NFL point spreads for week 8, this is the one that smells the most like bait.
- Buffalo Bills (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers: Josh Allen is trying to snap a two-game losing streak.
- Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Chicago Bears: Lamar Jackson is dealing with a hamstring issue, which makes this a very risky cover.
- Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins: Tua is struggling with giveaways, and Atlanta’s pass defense is currently top-ranked.
Honestly, the Chicago Bears on a four-game winning streak (SU and ATS) getting nearly a touchdown against a banged-up Lamar Jackson is fascinating. The Ravens are coming off a bye, but if Lamar isn't 100%, that -6.5 might as well be -100.
The Injury Report is the Real Oddsmaker
You can't talk about spreads this week without mentioning the hospital ward that is the NFC West. The San Francisco 49ers are dealing with Brock Purdy’s toe injury, which moved their line against the Houston Texans to Texans -1.5.
If Mac Jones starts for the Niners, that line probably jumps to -3.5 or -4.
Making Sense of the Week 8 Noise
If you’re trying to actually win some money or just win your office pool, stop looking at the records. Look at the Net Yards Per Play.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -4.5 or -6.5 favorites against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have cratered. They are 31st in DVOA. They look like a team that has given up on their coaching staff. Meanwhile, the Bucs are still fighting for the division. This is one of those spreads where the "name value" of the Saints is keeping the line closer than it probably should be.
- Check the weather in Denver. The Cowboys are 3.5-point underdogs at the Broncos. Mile High is a nightmare in late October if you aren't conditioned for it.
- Monitor the Bengals' rest. They are -6 favorites against the Jets. But history shows teams playing back-to-back home games on long rest actually underperform against the spread (about 44% ATS since 2010).
- Don't trust the Falcons as big favorites. They're -7.5 against Miami. They’ve been great, but they haven't been "blow out a desperate team" great.
Actionable Strategy for Sunday
If you're eyeing the NFL point spreads for week 8, your best bet is to wait until about 90 minutes before kickoff for the 1:00 PM ET games. The injury news for Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels is going to swing these lines by 2 or 3 points.
If you see the Ravens line drop to -3 or -4, it's a sign Lamar is out or severely limited. If the Colts line hits -15, just stay away. Nobody covers 15 points in the NFL without a defensive touchdown or three.
Focus on the "ugly" games. The Cleveland Browns at +7 against the New England Patriots is gross. Nobody wants to bet on Cleveland right now. But the Patriots' offense isn't built to blow people out. Seven points is a lot of cushion for a defensive-minded team like the Browns, even if their quarterback situation is a disaster.
Look for value in the totals, too. The Cowboys vs. Broncos over/under is sitting at 50.5. Dallas has to score 35 to win games because their defense is a sieve. That’s where the real movement is happening while everyone else is arguing over the spread.