Vegas doesn't build those massive, glowing towers because they like losing money. Honestly, if you've been watching the first three weeks of this 2025 season, you've seen exactly why. Favorites have been dropping like flies, and the "locks" of the week are turning into bankroll burners. Now we hit late September. NFL point spreads week 4 are officially here, and they are weird.
Take the Buffalo Bills for example. They opened as a massive 15.5-point favorite against the New Orleans Saints. By the time Sunday morning rolled around, that line jumped to -16.5 at most shops. Why? Because New Orleans looked absolutely lost against Seattle the week before. It’s the biggest spread of the season so far, and history tells us these double-digit numbers are a trap more often than not.
The Arrowhead Shocker
Usually, if you see Patrick Mahomes at home, he’s favored by a touchdown. Not this time. In a total "glitch in the matrix" moment for week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as 2.5-point home underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens.
It’s rare. Like, solar eclipse rare. Mahomes as a home dog is basically a bat-signal for sharp bettors. Looking at the data from the Action Network, Mahomes is actually 12-3-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog in his career. The Ravens are coming in hot, but laying points in Arrowhead feels like playing with matches in a gas station.
Why Line Movement Is Messing with Your Head
Lines move for two reasons: money and injuries. This week, it’s mostly injuries.
The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers are playing in Dublin, Ireland. That 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff is already a mess for sleep schedules, but the betting line flipped completely. It opened with Pittsburgh as a 1.5-point favorite, but because of a massive influx of money on Minnesota, the Vikings are now laying 2.5 points.
Then you have the injury report, which looks like a CVS receipt.
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- CeeDee Lamb is out with a high ankle sprain, leaving the Cowboys as 6.5-point underdogs against the Packers.
- Mike Evans is sidelined with a hamstring, making that Eagles-Bucs spread move from Philadelphia -3 to -3.5 or even -4 at some books.
- James Conner is out for the year, which is why Arizona is struggling to stay as a 1.5-point favorite against the Seahawks.
NFL Point Spreads Week 4: The Games Nobody Wants to Touch
Some games are just "stay-aways." The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are both sitting at 0-3. It’s a Monday Night Football matchup that looks more like a pillow fight. The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites, but can you really trust a winless team to cover anything?
Basically, the public is leaning toward the Dolphins because they're at home, but the sharps are looking at the Jets' defense. If Aaron Glenn’s unit can actually show up, the +2.5 might be the play of the night.
Real Talk on the Big Favorites
The Detroit Lions are 9.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns. Dan Campbell has turned the Lions into a covering machine—they've covered about 70% of their games since 2021. But Cleveland's defense is legit. They held the Bengals to 17 points and the Packers to 10. Taking a double-digit spread against a defense that stingy is a heart attack waiting to happen.
On the other side of the country, the 49ers are 3.5-point favorites over the Jaguars. San Francisco is dealing with a banged-up receiving corps. Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are both fighting through injuries. If they can't go, that 3.5 feels a lot heavier.
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Betting Trends You Actually Need
Forget the "gut feeling." Use the numbers. Teams that are trailing at halftime have been covering the second-half spread at a 64% clip this year. It's a weird trend that's held up since 2022. Also, teams that won by 30+ points the previous week—like the Seahawks and Vikings did in week 3—actually tend to struggle the following week. They are only 36-57-3 ATS in that spot since 2003.
How to Handle Your Week 4 Bets
If you're looking to actually make a move on these NFL point spreads week 4, stop looking for the blowout. Look for the ugly wins.
- Watch the "Key Numbers": In the NFL, games usually end on margins of 3, 7, or 10. If you can get a team at +3.5 instead of +2.5, take it every single time.
- Monitor the Weather: It’s late September. We're starting to see some wind and rain in the Northeast. Lower totals usually favor the underdog.
- Fade the "Overreaction": The Saints got crushed last week, so everyone is betting against them. That’s why the line is 16.5. It might be inflated by a full field goal just because of "recency bias."
Don't just follow the crowd. The "Public" teams—the ones with 60% or more of the betting tickets—went a miserable 4-17 ATS through the first three weeks of this season. If everyone is telling you one team is a "lock," that's usually the best time to run the other way.
Keep an eye on the late Saturday injury updates. A single "Out" designation for a left tackle or a starting cornerback can swing a line by two points in an hour. Check the active/inactive lists 90 minutes before kickoff. That’s where the real money is made.
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Next Steps for Your Betting Strategy
- Check the 48-hour movement: See which way the line has moved since Friday. If the spread is shrinking but the money is on the favorite, that's "reverse line movement," and it usually means the professionals are betting on the underdog.
- Verify the status of Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin: Their absence is the only reason the Falcons are favored over the Commanders. If one of them is a surprise "Go," that line is a steal.
- Look at the Teaser options: In a week with so many tight spreads, moving a line like the Chargers from -6.5 down to -0.5 in a 6-point teaser is a much safer way to play the board.