Five weeks of professional football have left us with a messy, beautiful pile of data. Some teams look like juggernauts while others are basically a "factory of sadness," as the saying goes. When you look at the nfl point spreads week 6, the first thing that jumps out is the sheer size of some of the lines. We are seeing numbers that feel more like Saturday afternoon in the SEC than Sunday in the NFL.
Green Bay is laying 14 points against the Bengals. Yes, you read that right. Fourteen. It is officially the largest spread of the season so far. Usually, bettors see a number like that and run for the hills—or blindly grab the points—but there is a reason the books are being so aggressive. Cincinnati has looked completely out of sorts, failing to stay within even a 10.5-point spread against Detroit last week. Meanwhile, the Packers are 4-1 and humming, even if they've been a bit inconsistent quarter-to-quarter.
The London Factor and the Jets' Desperation
Sunday starts early. Very early. If you're on the West Coast, you're waking up at 6:30 a.m. to see the Denver Broncos take on the New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The Broncos are currently 7.5-point favorites.
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It’s an interesting spot. Denver is coming off a massive statement win over the Eagles, but the Jets are sitting at a miserable 0-5. Honestly, the Jets shouldn't be this bad. Their Pythagorean win total says they should have at least 1.5 wins, and three of their losses were one-score games. Historically, winless underdogs in this spot are actually a gold mine. Since 2018, winless 'dogs are 119-77-2 against the spread (ATS). That’s a 61% hit rate. If you're brave enough to back the "sadness factory" in London, the data says you might actually have an edge.
Home Field "Disadvantage" and Travel Woes
We often talk about home-field advantage being worth three points. That's the old-school rule of thumb. But this year, the script has flipped. Road teams have been dominant, and public bettors—those who jump on the teams everyone is talking about—are getting absolutely crushed.
Teams that get more than 60% of the betting tickets are a pathetic 13-30 ATS through five weeks. That is the worst start for public sides in over 20 years.
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Take the Chargers and Dolphins game. The Chargers are traveling across the country for an early start in Miami. They are 4.5-point favorites. On paper, they’re better. But they were just shut out for three quarters against Washington and lost their star back, Omarion Hampton, to injury. His status is the literal definition of "up in the air." If he’s out, that 4.5-point spread starts to look a lot heavier than it did on Monday morning.
Notable Week 6 Matchups and Current Lines
Philadelphia is heading to MetLife to face the Giants as 7-point road favorites. Jalen Hurts is a bit of a mystery when he’s coming off a loss. He’s 10-10 straight up in those spots and only 7-13 ATS. The Giants, on the other hand, just got "Jaxson Dart-ed" back to reality after a brief spark of hope.
The Steelers are hosting the Browns and giving up 5.5 points. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, and normally you’d think that’s a massive advantage. But here’s a weird stat: home teams coming off a bye are only 70-96-6 ATS since 2011. That’s just 42%. Still, the Browns are in shambles. They just traded Joe Flacco and morale in the "Dawg Pound" is reportedly at an all-time low. Can Myles Garrett save them? Probably not enough to cover.
Down in Tampa, the Buccaneers are 3-point favorites against the 49ers. San Francisco has been living on the edge, battling injuries and somehow scraping together a 4-1 record. The Bucs offense, though, is "scoring for fun" lately, as some analysts have put it. This feels like the game where the 49ers' luck finally runs out.
The Monday Night Doubleheader
To wrap up the nfl point spreads week 6 slate, we get two games on Monday night. First, the Bills travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. Buffalo is laying 3.5 or 4 points depending on where you shop. Atlanta has been feisty at home, and the Bills just lost their perfect start last week.
Then we have the Bears and Commanders. Washington is a 4.5-point favorite. The Commanders' defense has been surprisingly stout, and Jayden Daniels is playing like a seasoned vet rather than a rookie. The Bears are 2-2 and haven't really found their offensive identity yet. If the Commanders' defensive line can get to Caleb Williams early, that 4.5-point spread might be cleared by halftime.
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Actionable Insights for Week 6
- Look at the Winless Underdog: The Jets at +7.5 in London fits a historical 61% ATS trend for winless teams.
- Fade the Public: If you see a line where 70% of the money is on one side (like the Packers -14), consider the other way. High-ticket teams are 3-13 ATS this year.
- Watch the Injury Report: Specifically Omarion Hampton for the Chargers. His absence would fundamentally change the Chargers' offensive efficiency.
- Respect the International Favorite: While the Jets have a trend in their favor, favorites in international games are 33-19 ATS overall. It’s a battle of two strong, conflicting stats.
You should always shop for the best line. A half-point is the difference between a win and a "push" (a tie), and in a week with so many middling spreads, that 0.5 matters more than ever. Check the late-week movements; if a line moves from 6.5 to 7.5, the "sharp" money has likely made its move.