August football is a weird beast. You’ve got third-string quarterbacks playing for their lives while the guys on the $100 million contracts are wearing bucket hats on the sideline. It looks like the NFL, it smells like the NFL, but the nfl preseason point spread acts nothing like the numbers you see in November. Honestly, if you try to handicap a preseason game using regular-season logic, you’re basically just donating your bankroll to the sportsbooks.
Most bettors see a spread of -3 and think it’s a coin flip. In the regular season, that's often true. In August? That number is a guess based on a coach’s press conference and a beat reporter’s tweet about who has a "tight hamstring."
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The Myth of the Three-Point Favorite
In the regular season, the number 3 is king. It’s the most common margin of victory because of how field goals work. But in the preseason, the nfl preseason point spread rarely sits still, and the "key number" logic starts to crumble.
Why? Because coaches don't care about your parlay. They don't even necessarily care about winning. A coach might be down by two points with ten seconds left and go for a two-point conversion just because he wants to see his rookie wideout run a specific goal-line fade. He’s not kicking the field goal to send it to overtime. In fact, nobody wants overtime in August. The players want to go home, and the coaches want to get to the film room.
This lack of "standard" late-game decision-making makes the spread incredibly volatile. You'll often see lines sitting at 1.5 or 2.5. These "short" spreads reflect the high level of uncertainty. Oddsmakers aren't trying to predict the score as much as they are trying to balance the action from people who follow training camp news like it's their job.
It’s a Backup Quarterback League
When you look at an nfl preseason point spread, you aren't betting on Patrick Mahomes. You’re betting on guys like Shane Buechele or whatever journeyman is currently holding a clipboard.
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Quarterback depth is the single most important factor in August. A team with a veteran backup—think of guys like Joe Flacco or Marcus Mariota in recent years—has a massive advantage over a team starting a raw rookie who hasn't learned how to slide yet. These veterans can navigate a basic 2-minute drill against a vanilla defense, which is usually enough to cover a 3-point spread.
- The "Starter" Trap: Don't be fooled by a coach saying the starters will play "the first quarter." That might mean two series. If the first-team offense goes three-and-out twice, they’re done.
- The Depth Chart Battle: Look for teams with a legitimate battle for the QB2 spot. If two guys are competing for a roster soul, they’ll play harder and deeper into the game than a locked-in backup.
- The "Fourth Quarter Hero": Some guys are preseason legends because they play the entire second half against future insurance salesmen. If a team has a mobile, athletic third-stringer, they can often erase a 10-point deficit against a tired, uninspired defense.
Coaching Tendencies: The Harbaugh Effect
You can’t talk about the nfl preseason point spread without mentioning John Harbaugh. For years, the Baltimore Ravens were an ATM for preseason bettors. They had a winning streak that spanned nearly a decade. Why? Because Harbaugh treats August like it's the Super Bowl. He wants to win. He wants a culture of winning.
On the flip side, you have coaches like Andy Reid or Sean McVay. McVay famously doesn't play his starters at all in the preseason. He couldn't care less if the Rams lose 34-0 in August as long as Cooper Kupp stays healthy.
If you see the Rams as a 3-point favorite against a team like the Ravens or the Steelers (who also tend to take preseason seriously), you have to ask yourself why. Usually, it's just public money overvaluing the "brand" of the team rather than the reality of who is actually on the field.
Why the Under is Often a Smarter Play
While the point spread gets all the glory, the total is where the real "sharp" money often lands. Preseason games are notoriously low-scoring early on. The timing isn't there. The offensive line rotations are a mess, leading to constant holding penalties and sacks.
If the nfl preseason point spread suggests a blowout, but the total is sitting at 37, the under is frequently the play. Defenses are almost always ahead of offenses in the first two weeks of August. Tackling might be sloppy, but the offensive playbooks are so "vanilla" (basic) that even a rookie linebacker can read the keys.
Practical Steps for Your Next August Wager
If you’re going to dive into the world of preseason betting, you need a different toolkit. Forget PFF grades from last year. Forget the Pro Bowl roster.
- Follow the Beat Writers: Follow the guys who are at practice every day. They’ll tell you if a coach is planning to play the starters for a full half or if the star QB is "under the weather."
- Check the Motivation: Is there a new head coach? New coaches often want to win their first few "fake" games to build momentum and buy-in. Established coaches with job security are more likely to use the games as a laboratory.
- Wait for the "Hook": If a line moves from -2.5 to -3.5 because of a rumor, the value is gone. Preseason lines move fast because the limits are lower. Don't chase the "steam" (heavy movement) unless you have a specific reason to believe the news is huge.
- Quarterback Rotations are Everything: Literally write down who is playing which quarter. If Team A is playing a veteran for 30 minutes and Team B is playing an undrafted rookie for 45, the choice is usually obvious.
The nfl preseason point spread is a puzzle, not a math problem. It’s about information more than it is about talent. If you can find the coach who wants to win and the backup quarterback who knows the playbook, you're already miles ahead of the casual fan betting on their favorite jersey color.
Before you place your next bet, check the local weather in the host city. A humid August night in Florida can drain a defense by the third quarter, leading to a late-game scoring surge that can blow a tight spread wide open. Keep your eyes on the rosters, keep your ear to the ground on social media, and remember: in August, nobody is as good—or as bad—as they look on paper.