The NFL regular season just wrapped up, and honestly, the final bracket looks nothing like what we expected back in August. If you told me four months ago that Sam Darnold and Bo Nix would be leading the number one seeds into the divisional round, I probably would’ve laughed. But here we are. The NFL standings and predictions landscape has shifted so violently that established powerhouses like the Chiefs and Ravens are currently planning vacations while the "afterthought" teams prepare for the divisional round.
It's weird.
We’ve officially moved past the Wild Card chaos. The dust has settled on a weekend where home-field advantage meant almost nothing for the higher seeds in the NFC, and the AFC saw its fair share of heartbreaks. If you’re trying to make sense of the 2025-2026 postseason, you’ve got to look at the numbers—not just the wins, but the weird tiebreakers and momentum swings that got us to this point.
The AFC mess: Broncos, Patriots, and the ghost of the Chiefs
The AFC West didn't just change hands; it flipped the script. The Denver Broncos finished 14-3, clinching the top seed and home-field advantage through the AFC Championship. Sean Payton basically turned Bo Nix into a point-guard quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. They won 11 games by a single score. People keep waiting for the bubble to burst, but the standings don't lie. They’re the team to beat in the AFC.
Then you have the New England Patriots. Drake Maye just won his first playoff start against the Chargers, a 16-3 defensive slog that felt like it was played in 1994. The Patriots are 14-3, matching Denver's record but losing the top spot because of common games record. It's wild to see New England back in the mix so quickly, but their defense is legitimately terrifying right now.
AFC Standings and Wild Card Results
The AFC bracket is narrowing down fast. Jacksonville, who looked like world-beaters in November, just got bounced by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a 27-24 nail-biter. That sends the 6-seed Bills to Denver for a Saturday afternoon showdown.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans just dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. C.J. Stroud looked like the best player on the field, and it wasn't particularly close. This sets up a Divisional Round where the Texans have to travel to Foxborough to face the Patriots.
Here is the current state of play for the AFC:
- Denver Broncos (1): Enjoyed the bye, hosting Buffalo next.
- New England Patriots (2): Beat Chargers 16-3.
- Buffalo Bills (6): Upset the 3-seed Jaguars 27-24.
- Houston Texans (5): Crushed the Steelers 10-7 on the road.
NFC chaos: Why the Seahawks are favorites (and why that’s risky)
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are the betting favorites at +330 to win Super Bowl LX. It makes sense on paper. They went 14-3, they have the number one scoring defense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is currently leading the league in receiving yards. But if you've watched the NFC West all year, you know the Seahawks aren't untouchable.
They’re about to face the San Francisco 49ers for the third time this season. The 49ers just walked into Philadelphia and knocked out the reigning champion Eagles 23-19. Brock Purdy found a way even without George Kittle. The Seahawks won the last meeting in Week 18, but the Niners won the first one in Seattle. It's a coin flip.
The other side of the NFC bracket is just as strange. The Chicago Bears (11-6) are the 2-seed, and they barely survived a 31-27 thriller against the Packers. Caleb Williams showed some rookie jitters but came through late. They’ll host the Los Angeles Rams, who are the scariest 5-seed in recent memory. Matthew Stafford and the Rams just put up 34 points on the Panthers in Carolina. Honestly, a lot of experts are picking the Rams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl despite their "Wild Card" status.
NFC Standings at a Glance
The NFC South was a disaster this year. The Carolina Panthers won the division with an 8-9 record. They were immediately eliminated by the Rams. That's just how the 2025-2026 season has gone—the "best" teams aren't always the ones with the division titles.
- Seattle Seahawks (1): 14-3, No. 1 defense, hosting the 49ers.
- Chicago Bears (2): 11-6, hosting the Rams.
- L.A. Rams (5): 12-5, beat Carolina 34-31.
- San Francisco 49ers (6): 12-5, beat Philly 23-19.
NFL predictions: The Divisional Round and beyond
Looking at the NFL standings and predictions for the upcoming weekend, you have to weigh experience against momentum. Everyone is talking about Josh Allen. He’s the reigning MVP for a reason. He has more playoff starts than the rest of the AFC quarterbacks combined. The Bills are currently 1-point favorites in Denver. That tells you everything about how much the Vegas oddsmakers trust Bo Nix in a high-pressure spot.
I think the Broncos' defense is the real deal, though. They have a way of making elite quarterbacks look human. If the Bills can't run the ball—and they've been dreadful at it lately—Allen will have to be perfect.
In the NFC, I’m leaning toward the Rams upsetting the Bears. Chicago is a great story, but Stafford has been here before. The Rams relinquished a big lead to Seattle late in the season, and they seem to have a chip on their shoulder because of it.
Super Bowl LX Odds Update
As of this week, the betting market looks like this:
- Seattle Seahawks (+330)
- Los Angeles Rams (+425)
- Denver Broncos (+650)
- New England Patriots (+900)
- Buffalo Bills (+1000)
It is worth noting that the AFC has won 6 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Also, the top seed in the AFC has made the big game 60% of the time over the last decade. If history holds, we’re looking at a Denver vs. Seattle or Denver vs. Rams matchup in Santa Clara.
What most people get wrong about the standings
We tend to look at the "L" column and assume we know who the better team is. This year, that’s a trap. Look at the Houston Texans. They are a 5-seed, but they have a better record (12-5) than the 4-seed Steelers (10-7) they just beat. The NFL’s seeding system rewards division winners, even if they play in a weak division like the NFC South or AFC North this year.
The real strength is in the wild card teams. Both the Bills and the 49ers are 6-seeds, yet they both just knocked out 3-seeds on the road. This isn't a year where the bye week guarantees a trip to the Conference Championship.
Actually, the Seahawks are the only team that feels "safe" at home, and even they have to deal with a division rival that knows their playbook inside out. The 12s will be loud, but Mike Macdonald’s defense is going to have to play the game of their lives to stop a healthy Christian McCaffrey.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you are tracking these games for a bracket or just for bragging rights, here are three things to watch:
- Check the Injury Reports for SF and BUF: The 49ers are missing Kittle, and the Bills have been thin on the defensive interior. If those gaps aren't filled, the home seeds (Seattle and Denver) will exploit them immediately.
- The "Experience" Gap: In the AFC, Josh Allen is the veteran. Everyone else—Nix, Maye, Stroud—is effectively a newcomer to this level of pressure. History usually favors the veteran QB in the Divisional Round.
- Weather Factors: It’s January. Denver and Foxborough are going to be cold. Teams like the Texans and Bills are used to it, but the Broncos have built their identity on a ground-and-pound style that thrives in the wind and snow.
The path to Super Bowl LX is wide open. For the first time in years, there is no "dynasty" standing in the way. No Mahomes. No Lamar. Just a group of hungry, young rosters and a few veterans like Stafford and Allen trying to cement their legacies.
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Next Steps for Following the Playoffs:
- Verify the Divisional Schedule: Games are split between Saturday, Jan 17 and Sunday, Jan 18.
- Monitor the AFC North/South Tiebreakers: Understanding why Houston is traveling to New England instead of Denver depends on the final seeding logic established in Week 18.
- Watch the Betting Line Movement: If the Bills move from -1 to -3 in Denver, it’s a sign that the "smart money" doesn't believe in the Broncos' Cinderella run.