The regular season is officially in the rearview mirror, and if your head is spinning from that Week 18 chaos, you aren't alone. We watched the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks snag the top seeds, while teams like the Eagles and Jaguars basically watched their Super Bowl aspirations vanish in a single weekend. It’s wild how fast the narrative changes. One minute you're the defending champ looking for a repeat, and the next, you're wondering how the Commanders just knocked you out of a home-field advantage.
The nfl standings playoff picture is no longer a projection; it's a bracket.
We’ve moved past the "what if" scenarios and into the "what now." Honestly, the Divisional Round matchups we have set for this weekend are significantly more interesting than what the experts predicted back in August. Nobody had the Buffalo Bills travelling to Mile High as a 6-seed after the start they had, yet here we are.
The AFC Chaos: Why Denver is Sitting Pretty
Denver locked up the AFC's No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, finally putting the "can they actually do it?" talk to bed. They beat the Chargers 19-3 in the finale, which was less of a football game and more of a defensive masterclass. By doing that, they earned the only bye in the conference.
While they rested, the Wild Card round absolutely shredded the higher seeds.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, who many thought were a lock to make a deep run, choked at home. They lost 27-24 to the Bills. It was a classic "Jags" moment—great regular season, but the wheels came off when the lights got bright. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans didn't just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers; they embarrassed them 30-6. CJ Stroud looks like he’s playing a different sport right now.
The New England Patriots did what they always do—suffocated the Los Angeles Chargers in a 16-3 slugfest. It wasn't pretty. Actually, it was kind of boring to watch if you like offense. But it worked.
Upcoming AFC Divisional Matchups
- Buffalo Bills (6) at Denver Broncos (1): Saturday, Jan 17 at 4:30 PM ET on CBS.
- Houston Texans (5) at New England Patriots (2): Sunday, Jan 18 at 3:00 PM ET on ESPN/ABC.
Denver hasn't played in two weeks. That’s either going to make them fresh or extremely rusty. The Bills are coming in hot after that upset in Jacksonville, so don't be shocked if that 1:30 PM local kickoff in Denver gets weird.
The NFC Side: Seattle's Reign and the Philly Collapse
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are the team to beat. They finished 14-3 and clinched the top seed by beating the 49ers in Week 18. That win was massive because it forced San Francisco into the Wild Card gauntlet instead of letting them rest.
Speaking of the Wild Card, can we talk about the Philadelphia Eagles? They were the defending NFC champs and had a chance to secure the No. 2 seed. Instead, they lost to the Commanders 24-17 and then got booted from the playoffs entirely by the San Francisco 49ers in a 23-19 heartbreaker. It’s a massive fall from grace for Nick Sirianni’s squad.
The Chicago Bears actually managed to hold onto the No. 2 seed despite losing their final game to the Lions. They survived because the Eagles also lost. Lucky? Maybe. But they’ve got a home game now, and in January, Soldier Field is a nightmare for visiting teams.
The Los Angeles Rams are the real "sneaky" team here. They beat the Carolina Panthers 34-31 in a game that felt like it belonged in the 1990s—just high-scoring, back-and-forth fun.
Upcoming NFC Divisional Matchups
- San Francisco 49ers (6) at Seattle Seahawks (1): Saturday, Jan 17 at 8:15 PM ET on FOX.
- Los Angeles Rams (5) at Chicago Bears (2): Sunday, Jan 18 at 6:30 PM ET on NBC.
The 49ers-Seahawks game is a rubber match. They’ve played twice already this season. Seattle won the last one 13-3. Expect a lot of hitting and probably some questionable officiating because that’s just how this rivalry goes.
Realities of the 2026 Playoff Format
A lot of people still get confused about how the nfl standings playoff picture actually functions since the league expanded to 17 games and 14 playoff teams. Only the No. 1 seeds get that week off. That’s a huge disadvantage for the No. 2 seeds, who used to get a bye back in the day.
Look at the Bears or the Patriots. They had 11 and 14 wins respectively, but they still had to suit up for the Wild Card round while Denver and Seattle sat on their couches.
The Home Field Myth
Just because you're at home doesn't mean you win. We saw three road teams win in the Wild Card round this year. The Bills, Texans, and 49ers all went into hostile environments and walked out with a "W." The "12th Man" in Seattle and the "Mile High" air in Denver are real factors, but the 2026 season has proven that momentum often beats geography.
Injuries Changing Everything
The Raiders lost Brock Bowers to the IR right at the end of the season. Lamar Jackson was dealing with issues. Even Patrick Mahomes has been rehabbing that knee injury with an eye on the 2026 season opener. The teams left in the bracket—the "Final Eight"—are basically the ones who managed to keep their quarterbacks upright.
Actionable Strategy for Following the Bracket
If you're trying to stay ahead of the curve as we move toward the Conference Championships on January 25, here is how you should look at the remaining field:
✨ Don't miss: Auburn Football Is Where the Chaos of the SEC Actually Lives
- Watch the Saturday double-header: The winner of Bills-Broncos and 49ers-Seahawks will set the tone for the entire weekend. If both 1-seeds lose, it's the first time in the modern era that would happen in the Divisional round.
- Monitor the weather in Chicago: The Rams are a dome team (mostly). Sunday night in Chicago is projected to be brutal. If the wind picks up, the Rams' passing attack with Puka Nacua might get neutralized.
- Check the re-seeding: Remember, the NFL doesn't use a fixed bracket. The No. 1 seed always plays the lowest remaining seed. If the 6-seed Bills win, they will definitely play the winner of the other AFC game, regardless of who it is.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing. By Monday morning, we will be down to just four teams. Based on how these nfl standings playoff picture battles have gone so far, expect the unexpected.
The most important thing to do right now is clear your schedule for Saturday afternoon. The Bills at Broncos game kicks off at 4:30 PM ET on CBS, followed immediately by the 49ers and Seahawks on FOX. By the time that second game ends, we'll know if the NFC West still runs through Seattle or if the Niners have finally figured out how to stop the Seahawks' pass rush.