It is mid-January, and if you're looking at the standings in the nfl, you’re basically looking at a graveyard of preseason expectations. Seriously. Think back to August. If I told you the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals would all be sitting at home while Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos chilled on a first-round bye, you’d have called for a wellness check.
But here we are.
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The regular season is wrapped. The Wild Card dust has settled. We are staring down a Divisional Round that feels more like a "New Era" showcase than a traditional postseason. The old guard didn't just stumble; they fell off a cliff.
The AFC Shakeup: Denver and New England Aren't Flukes
Everyone kept waiting for the Broncos to regfress. "Bo Nix is just a game manager," they said. Well, that game manager led Denver to a 14-3 record and the top seed in the AFC. They aren't winning with flashy 50-point explosions, honestly. It’s that suffocating defense that hasn't allowed more than two turnovers in a single game all year.
Then you have the New England Patriots.
Under Mike Vrabel, this team looks eerily like the old dynasty, but with a different flavor. Drake Maye survived a brutal, low-scoring 16-3 slugfest against Justin Herbert and the Chargers last Sunday. It wasn't pretty. It was actually kinda ugly to watch if you like offense. But New England finished 14-3 for a reason. They don't beat themselves.
While the "experts" were busy crowning the usual suspects, these two teams just methodically chewed through the standings in the nfl until they owned the bracket.
Current AFC Divisional Matchups
- No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Denver Broncos (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
- No. 5 Houston Texans at No. 2 New England Patriots (Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET)
The Texans are the real wild card here. C.J. Stroud literally fumbled five times against the Steelers in the Wild Card round and they still won 30-6. That’s just disrespectful. DeMeco Ryans has that defense playing like they’re possessed.
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The NFC Chaos: Seattle’s Reign and the Under-500 King
The NFC West was a total bloodbath this year. You’ve got the Seattle Seahawks sitting at 14-3 with the No. 1 seed, led by a revitalized Sam Darnold and a Mike Macdonald defense that looks like the 2013 Legion of Boom reincarnated.
But look further down.
The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South with a 8-9 record. Yeah, you read that right. A losing record got them a home playoff game. They eventually got bounced by the Rams, 34-31, but it highlights just how weird the standings in the nfl became this winter. The NFC East and North were top-heavy, while the South was basically a race to see who could fail the slowest.
Current NFC Divisional Matchups
- No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
- No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Chicago Bears (Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET)
The 49ers just knocked off the defending champ Eagles in Philly. Shorthanded. No George Kittle. Brock Purdy just kept leaning on Christian McCaffrey until the Eagles' front four gassed out. It was a coaching masterclass by Kyle Shanahan.
What People Get Wrong About These Rankings
Most fans look at "Points For" and think that tells the story. It doesn't. Not this year.
Take the Chicago Bears. They are the No. 2 seed at 11-6. They aren't a high-flying circus act. They’re winning because they lead the league in situational third-down stops. When you look at the standings in the nfl, you see the wins, but you don't see the "hidden" stats like EPA per play where the 49ers actually rank higher than the teams seeded above them.
The 49ers are the No. 6 seed but have the point differential of a 13-win team. They lost close games early because of injuries, but they are the "boogeyman" of the bracket right now. Nobody wants to play them. Seattle has to play them for a third time this Saturday, and honestly, the Seahawks are probably sweating it despite the bye week.
The "Middle Class" of the NFL is Gone
There used to be a lot of 9-8 and 10-7 teams that felt "okay." Not anymore.
The gap between the elite (Denver, New England, Seattle) and the rest of the pack widened significantly this season. If you weren't elite, you were basically 7-10. This creates a weird dynamic in the standings in the nfl where the top seeds have a massive statistical advantage. Home-field advantage has never mattered more than it does in this specific 2026 bracket.
Look at the Jaguars. They went 13-4, had a great year, and then Josh Allen and the Bills walked into their stadium and sent them packing 27-24. Buffalo is the only "road warrior" that feels like they can actually win in the thin air of Denver or the frost of Foxborough.
Final Standings Breakdown (Regular Season Highlights)
| Team | Record | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 14-3 | Bo Nix proved every hater wrong with a league-low INT rate. |
| New England Patriots | 14-3 | Defense allowed fewer than 17 points per game. |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 | Best home record in the league (8-1). |
| Houston Texans | 12-5 | C.J. Stroud is officially a top-3 QB in the league. |
| Chicago Bears | 11-6 | Caleb Williams took the "leap" in Year 2. |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-9 | Proof that winning a bad division is still winning. |
How to Use These Standings for Your Next Move
If you're looking at the standings in the nfl for betting or just to win your office pool, stop looking at the overall record for a second. Look at "Last 5 Games."
The Bills and 49ers are technically lower seeds (both No. 6), but they are both on 4+ game winning streaks. Meanwhile, the Bears and Patriots actually stumbled a bit in December. Momentum usually trumps seeding in the Divisional Round.
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Next Steps for Your Football Weekend:
- Watch the Injury Report for San Francisco: If George Kittle remains out, Seattle's linebackers can cheat toward McCaffrey, which changes the entire math of that Saturday night game.
- Account for the "Altitude Factor": Denver is 7-1 at home this season. Buffalo just played a humid game in Jacksonville; the quick turnaround to the Mile High City is a massive physical hurdle.
- Monitor the Patriots' O-Line: Drake Maye was pressured on 40% of dropbacks against the Chargers. If the Texans' pass rush gets home like that, an upset is brewing in New England.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is wide open. For the first time in nearly a decade, we don't have a "dynasty" standing in the way. It’s anyone’s game, provided they can survive the most unpredictable January we've seen in years.