Wild Card weekend was a total fever dream. We saw the Carolina Panthers almost shock the world and the Chicago Bears pull off an 18-point comeback that probably had half of Illinois holding their breath for three hours. Now we're staring down the 2026 Divisional Round, and honestly, the board looks like a minefield. If you're looking for nfl straight up picks this week, you've come to the right place, but don't expect a cakewalk.
The heavy hitters—Denver and Seattle—are finally coming off their byes. They're rested. They're at home. But they're also facing battle-tested teams that just found ways to win in the mud.
Is it smart to trust a "rust" factor? Or do the #1 seeds just steamroll everyone because they've had two weeks to watch film? Let’s break down these four matchups without the corporate fluff.
Saturday’s Heavyweight Doubleheader
Saturday starts in the thin air of Mile High and ends in the literal loudest place on earth. These aren't just games; they're endurance tests.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Saturday, Jan 17 | 4:30 PM ET (CBS)
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Josh Allen is basically a human wrecking ball in January. He just pushed the Bills past Jacksonville in a 27-24 nail-biter, and he’s currently playing like a guy who knows his window is wide open. But here’s the thing: Denver is 14-3 for a reason. Their defense has been a suffocating blanket all year.
Denver is a tiny 1.5-point favorite. That tells you the books are terrified of Allen. The Broncos haven't won a playoff game since their 2015 Super Bowl run, which feels like a lifetime ago in NFL years.
The Pick: Denver Broncos. It’s going to be ugly. It’s going to be cold. But I think the Broncos' defense does just enough to contain Allen's scrambles. Expect a 24-23 type of game where a late field goal decides it.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, Jan 17 | 8:00 PM ET (FOX)
This is the rubber match. They split the regular season. Seattle looks like a wagon right now, and Sam Darnold—yes, that Sam Darnold—has actually been playing like a top-tier starter under Mike Macdonald. Seattle’s defense is currently ranked #1 in scoring, and they’ve only given up 13 points combined over their last two games.
San Francisco is coming off a short week and a physical win over the Eagles. They're banged up. Christian McCaffrey is always a threat, but the Seahawks' "12s" are going to be making enough noise to shake the Space Needle.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is favored by 7 for a reason. They are fresher, healthier, and playing at home. It’s hard to beat Kyle Shanahan three times in a row if you're the same team, but the 49ers might just run out of gas in the fourth quarter here.
Sunday’s Tactical Chess Matches
Sunday shifts from the West to the historic grounds of Foxborough and Chicago. We've got a rookie legend in the making and a veteran QB looking for one last ring.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Sunday, Jan 18 | 3:00 PM ET (ABC/ESPN)
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The Patriots defense just absolutely dismantled the Chargers, holding them to 3 points. 3 points! Now they have to face a Houston team that just hung 30 on the Steelers. This is the classic "Unstoppable Force vs. Immovable Object" scenario.
New England is a 3-point favorite. Honestly, the Patriots’ offense isn't going to wow anyone, but they don't make mistakes. They play "boring" football that wins championships. Houston, on the other hand, is volatile. They can score 40 or they can turn the ball over four times.
The Pick: New England Patriots. In Foxborough, in January, I’m taking the team that knows how to grind out 16-10 wins. New England wins a defensive struggle.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 18 | 6:30 PM ET (NBC)
This is the game everyone is talking about. Caleb Williams vs. Matthew Stafford. The kid vs. the old pro. Chicago is hosting a divisional game for the first time in 15 years, and the city is vibrating.
The big news here is Rome Odunze. He’s questionable with that foot injury, and if he can’t go, Caleb loses his best deep threat. Meanwhile, the Rams just survived a shootout with Carolina. Matthew Stafford looks like he’s 25 again, carving up secondaries with surgical precision.
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Some analysts are calling for a record-breaking shootout. We’re talking 52-45 territory.
The Pick: Los Angeles Rams. I know, I know. Picking against the Bears at Soldier Field feels wrong. But Sean McVay with an extra day of prep against a rookie QB in the playoffs? I trust Stafford’s experience to navigate the cold better than Caleb, especially if Odunze isn't at 100%.
Making Sense of NFL Straight Up Picks This Week
When you’re looking at these games, forget the point spreads for a second. In the Divisional Round, the home team wins about 70% of the time historically. This week feels like it might follow that trend, with the exception of the Rams-Bears game which feels like a total coin flip.
What to watch for:
- The Weather: Chicago and Denver are going to be freezing. Look for the teams that can actually run the ball when their fingers are numb.
- Turnovers: In Wild Card weekend, every loser except the Steelers lost the turnover battle.
- Health: Keep an eye on the Friday injury reports. A "Questionable" tag in the regular season means they might play; in the playoffs, it usually means they'll try, but they might be a shell of themselves.
Your Playbook for the Weekend
Don't just chase the favorites because they have a higher seed. If you're building a parlay or just trying to win your office pool, look at the matchups.
- Monitor the Broncos' pass rush. If they can't get to Josh Allen, he will shred them.
- Watch the Seattle secondary. They have been ball-hawking all month.
- Check the status of Rome Odunze. His presence changes how the Rams have to defend the entire field.
- Trust the veteran QBs. Stafford and Allen have "been there." Caleb Williams is amazing, but the playoff lights are a different kind of bright.
Lock in your picks early, but keep a window open on your phone for those final inactive lists 90 minutes before kickoff. One rolled ankle in warmups changes everything.