Honestly, if you looked at your pick em sheet last week and didn't feel like crying, you probably weren't paying attention. NFL Week 12 is usually where the "pretenders" start falling off the map, but in 2025, it's basically a minefield of backup quarterbacks and weird divisional hoodoos. You've got the Dallas Cowboys somehow beating the Philadelphia Eagles as home underdogs, and the Houston Texans—sans C.J. Stroud—taking down a red-hot Buffalo Bills team on a Thursday night. It's absolute chaos.
People love to talk about "momentum" this late in the season. But momentum is a lie when your starting QB is in concussion protocol or your star edge rusher is out with a groin tweak. If you’re trying to win your office pool or just beat your friends, you have to look past the team names and start looking at the "voodoo."
The AFC North Mess: Steelers vs. Bears
One of the weirdest games on the NFL week 12 pick em slate was Pittsburgh heading into Soldier Field. On paper, the Bears had the better record (7-3) and the "rising star" in Caleb Williams. But anyone who knows the Steelers knows they thrive in the mud.
The line opened with Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite and swelled to 3 by kickoff because Aaron Rodgers—who’s now quarterbacking the Steelers in this weird 2025 reality—was a game-time decision with a fractured left wrist. He didn't play. Mason Rudolph did. And yet, the Steelers "mucked it up" just like Geoff Schwartz predicted.
The Bears are technically 25th in DVOA despite their winning record. That is a massive red flag. They’ve been lucky, not good. When Caleb Williams gets sacked three or more times, he almost never wins. Pittsburgh’s defense, even without Rodgers to help them on the other side, keeps them in every single game. If you picked the Bears because of the record, you fell for the trap.
Don't Bet Against the Patriots (Wait, Really?)
It feels gross to say, but the New England Patriots are a legitimate powerhouse again. Drake Maye has them rolling toward the AFC’s top seed. They went into Cincinnati in Week 12 and absolutely dismantled a Bengals team that looks like it needs an exorcism.
Cincinnati was a mess. Joe Burrow was ruled out with a toe injury, and Tee Higgins left with a concussion. When you’re starting Sean Clifford or Joe Flacco against the #1 run defense in the league, you’re going to have a bad time. The Patriots were 5-0 on the road coming into this, and they covered the -7.5 spread like it was nothing.
Why the Bengals Are Fading
- Defensive Struggles: They are allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL.
- Injury Bug: Burrow, Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson were all sidelined or limited.
- Discipline: Ja'Marr Chase was under the microscope for a spitting incident the week prior.
The Cowboys-Eagles Shock
Everyone and their mother picked the Eagles to roll over Dallas. The Eagles were 8-2. The Cowboys were struggling at 4-5-1. But divisional games in the NFC East don't care about your "logic."
Dallas pulled off a 24-21 upset. Why? Because Philadelphia's secondary finally got exposed. Reed Blankenship went down with a thigh injury, and the Cowboys' offense—which had been dormant—found a way to exploit the gaps. If you're picking games based on who is "supposed" to win, you're going to lose your pick em. You have to account for the desperation of a team like Dallas playing at home with their season on the line.
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Quick Hits for the Rest of the Slate
Look at the Lions. They were 12.5-point favorites against the Giants. That’s a massive spread. But Detroit at Ford Field is a different beast. The Giants came in with Jaxson Dart in concussion protocol and a run defense that gives up nearly 150 yards a game. That is a "perfect storm" for Gibbs and Montgomery. The Lions didn't just win; they covered easily.
Then you have the Raiders and Browns. A game where "neither offense crossed midfield organically." That’s a quote from a Reddit thread, but it’s basically facts. The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, right after this loss. If you picked the "Over" in a Raiders-Browns game, you haven't been watching the Raiders. They average 15.5 points a game.
Actionable Strategy for Your Next Picks
Stop looking at the standings. Seriously. By Week 12, the standings are a lagging indicator. Instead, focus on these three things for your future pick ems:
- Check the Thursday/Monday splits. The 49ers played the Panthers on Monday night. Christian McCaffrey was facing his old team for the first time. The "narrative" said he'd go off, and he did. But San Francisco's injuries (they are "injured-to-hell," as one analyst put any) made the -7.5 spread much riskier than it looked.
- DVOA vs. Record. If a team is 7-3 but ranked 25th in efficiency (like the Bears), they are a "fade." They are due for regression.
- The "Voodoo" Factor. Some teams just don't win in certain stadiums. The Steelers in Chicago? Usually a disaster. The Packers against the Vikings? Green Bay had lost two straight going into Week 12 and struggled again at Lambeau.
Week 12 proved that the NFL is a league of matchups, not just talent. The Jaguars and Cardinals played a game where neither fanbase left happy—Jaguars won 27-24, but it was a comedy of errors. If you can identify which teams are "frauds" early, you’ll dominate your league.
Next time you sit down to fill out your sheet, look at the injury reports for offensive linemen. Everyone looks at the QB, but if a team like the Vikings is missing two starters on the line (Darrisaw and Jackson), it doesn't matter who is throwing the ball. J.J. McCarthy had no chance against Green Bay’s pass rush. That’s the kind of detail that wins pick ems.
Final Insights for Pick Em Success
- Trust the Home Dogs: Divisional home underdogs like Dallas are gold in late November.
- Fade High-Flying Frauds: Teams with winning records but bottom-tier defenses will eventually break your heart.
- Monitor the Trenches: A backup QB can survive behind a great O-line, but an MVP will look like a rookie behind a broken one.
Keep these variables in mind as you head into the final stretch of the season. The "obvious" pick is usually the one that gets you beat.