You've been there. It’s Sunday morning, you’re staring at your NFL week 3 pick em slate, and everything feels like a trap. Honestly, by the time the third week of the season rolls around, we all think we’re experts because we saw a couple of blowouts in September. But that’s exactly where the "experts" and the public get smoked. Week 3 is historically the "Great Correction." It’s when the teams that looked like world-beaters suddenly trip over their own shoelaces, and the 0-2 squads play like their lives are on the line.
The 2025 season is proving to be no different. If you're chasing the "chalk"—those obvious favorites everyone else is picking—you’re basically begging to finish in the middle of your pool. To win a pick em contest, you have to find the leverage. You need to know when to fade the crowd and when to hold your nose and pick the team that looked like garbage six days ago.
The Strategy Behind NFL Week 3 Pick Em Success
Most people pick with their hearts or based on what they saw on RedZone last week. That’s a mistake. If a team is getting 90% of the public's picks but only has a 60% chance to win, picking the underdog is the only way to actually gain ground in a competitive pool.
Take the Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears matchup this week. Dallas is the "name" brand. They’ve got the star power. But if you look at the data from sites like PoolGenius, the public is hammering Dallas despite the Bears being a live home dog. Chicago's defense has been gritty, and if everyone in your pool is taking the Cowboys, a Bears win catapults you past the entire field.
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Stop Chasing Last Week's Box Scores
We saw the Buffalo Bills absolutely dismantle the Dolphins on Thursday night. 31-10? Total dominance. Now, everyone wants to ride that high. But in a confidence pool, you have to be careful. Buffalo is a massive favorite, but if you’re in a season-long survivor pool, this is the week where the "future value" conversation starts. Is it worth burning the Bills now when they play the Saints later? Probably not.
Matchups That Will Break Your Pool
Let’s get into the weeds of the actual games. Some of these lines are disgusting.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (Monday Night)
This is the heavyweight fight of the week. Lamar Jackson is basically a cheat code in primetime. Statistically, he’s 7-2 on Monday nights with 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. That’s a ridiculous stat. The Lions are tough, and they looked like Super Bowl contenders against the Bears, but going into M&T Bank Stadium is a different beast. Most sharp players are leaning Ravens here, but the spread has inflated to -5.5. If you're playing against the spread (ATS), Detroit +5.5 is a very tempting "pro" move.
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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans are 0-2. They look lost. Or do they? C.J. Stroud has never lost in Jacksonville. He’s 3-1 against the Jags in his career. While the public is jumping ship on Houston because they can't finish drives, the Jaguars' offense has been equally shaky, failing to close out the Bengals last week. This is a classic "desperation" game for Houston. In an NFL week 3 pick em contest, taking the 0-2 team in a divisional road game is the kind of "ugly" pick that wins titles.
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings
This game is a mess. No Joe Burrow. No J.J. McCarthy. We're looking at Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz (or Sam Darnold depending on the health reports). The Bengals are currently averaging a pathetic 47 rushing yards per game. You can't win in the NFL if you can't run. The Vikings' defense has been surprisingly stout, and with the Bengals' pass defense allowing nearly 270 yards a game, Justin Jefferson is likely going to have a field day.
Trusting the Data Over the Hype
If you want to win, you have to look at the "Pick Popularity" vs. "Win Probability" gap.
- The Raiders at Commanders trap: Everyone is eyeing the Commanders because Jayden Daniels (if he plays) is exciting. But if Marcus Mariota has to start, that line shifts instantly. The Raiders are a sneaky contrarian play if the public stays heavy on Washington.
- The "Save the Bills" Rule: If your pool has a lot of people, don't use Buffalo yet. Use the Green Bay Packers or Seattle Seahawks. Seattle hosting the Saints is a 75% win probability—their highest of the year.
- The Confidence Points Pivot: In confidence pools, don't put your 15 or 16 points on the Bills. Put them on the Kansas City Chiefs against the Giants. Mahomes isn't losing to the Giants. It's the safest "lock" that doesn't feel like a trap.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest mistake? Overreacting to injuries. Yes, the Jets being without Justin Fields is bad. Tyrod Taylor is a drop-off, but is he a 6.5-point drop-off? Usually, the market over-adjusts for backup QBs. Tampa Bay has their own issues on the offensive line. Taking the Jets to cover +6.5 is a "hold your nose" special that the pros love.
Also, home-field advantage isn't what it used to be. The Pittsburgh Steelers are traveling to Foxborough to face the Patriots. It's a pick em game. The Steelers have a long travel week ahead (they're going to Ireland next week), and that "look-ahead" factor is real. The Patriots at home, even with Drake Maye's growing pains, feel like the smarter straight-up play.
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Making Your Final Moves
When you sit down to lock in your NFL week 3 pick em selections, do a quick "gut check." If every single one of your picks matches the "Expert Consensus" on major sports sites, you're not going to win. You'll just tie with 40% of the pool.
Pick one or two "smart" upsets. Maybe it's the Texans over the Jaguars. Maybe it's the Cowboys losing in Chicago because their run defense is a sieve.
Actionable Next Steps
- Check the Injury Reports: Specifically for Jayden Daniels (Commanders) and the Ravens' secondary (Humphrey/Van Noy). If those guys sit, flip your picks.
- Look at the Over/Under Trends: Dallas is 75% to the "Over" this year. If you're in a total points tiebreaker pool, go high on the Cowboys game.
- Diversify: If you're in multiple pools, don't pick the same upsets in all of them. Spread your risk.
Stop overthinking the "momentum" of Week 2. In the NFL, momentum is just a fancy word for "what happened six days ago." Focus on the matchups, find the public bias, and don't be afraid to pick the team that nobody else wants to touch.