Draft night is a weird mix of hope and pure, unadulterated terror for NHL GMs. You’re standing there on the stage, the lights are blindingly bright, and you’re about to attach your professional reputation to an 18-year-old kid who probably still gets nervous talking to girls. It's wild. The pressure is insane. When we talk about nhl number one picks, we usually look at them as these sure-fire, gold-plated saviors, but the reality is way more messy and human than a spreadsheet suggests.
Honestly, being the first overall pick is kinda like being the valedictorian of a high school that has a 90% dropout rate. You’re the best there, sure. But the next level doesn’t care about your past.
The Weight of the Crown
Take Connor Bedard. People were calling him a "generational" talent before he could legally drive in most of Canada. He lands in Chicago, a city desperate to move on from a messy era, and suddenly he’s the face of a multi-billion dollar franchise.
In his 2024-25 season, he put up 67 points in 82 games. For a normal rookie, that’s incredible. For an nhl number one picks winner? People were actually debating if he was "underwhelming" because he didn’t immediately score 100 points like Connor McDavid. That’s the bar now. It’s ridiculous.
Then you have Macklin Celebrini, the 2024 top pick for San Jose. The Sharks were, to put it lightly, a disaster. Celebrini walked into a locker room where losing was the default setting. He ended up hitting the 70-point mark in his rookie campaign, joining the likes of MacKinnon and McDavid as teenagers to do it. But even then, the conversation isn't about how good he is; it's about whether he can "carry" a team by himself.
He can't. Nobody can. Not even 66 or 99 did it alone.
When the "Bust" Label is Just Bad Timing
We love to talk about the failures. Names like Alexandre Daigle or Nail Yakupov get tossed around like cautionary tales. Daigle famously said, "I'm glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number two."
Well, Chris Pronger was number two that year. People remember him.
But look at Juraj Slafkovský in Montreal. After his first season, the "bust" whispers were deafening. He had 10 points in 39 games. People were losing their minds in Quebec. Then, he starts his sophomore year and eventually finds a rhythm, proving that a 6'4" teenager needs time to grow into his own limbs.
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Comparing his first 82 games to Jack Hughes is a great reality check.
- Jack Hughes: 34 points in 82 games.
- Juraj Slafkovský: 26 points in 82 games.
Hughes is now a perennial Hart Trophy threat. Slafkovský is trending toward being a dominant power forward. The lesson? Stop judging these kids by their first 40 games.
The Defensive Shift: Matthew Schaefer
In 2025, the New York Islanders did something that doesn't happen often. They took a defenseman first overall. Matthew Schaefer.
Taking a D-man at number one is a massive gamble because they take way longer to develop than centers. Think about Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin. They don't just jump in and dominate. They get beat. They make mistakes. They have to learn how to defend against men who have been in the league for 15 years.
Schaefer is a special case. He’s got that "it" factor—he’s the guy who can play 25 minutes a night and you barely notice him because he never makes a mistake. But fans want highlights. They want goals. If Schaefer doesn't put up 50 points as a rookie, the "is he a bust?" articles will start by December. It’s a toxic cycle, basically.
The Numbers Don't Lie (Usually)
If you look at the historical data, being picked first is still the best bet you can make. It's not a coin flip.
- 52.5% of 1st overall picks reach 500 career points.
- Compare that to 10th overall picks, where only 9.8% hit that same mark.
- There’s a 24.6% chance a top pick breaks 1,000 career points.
That’s a huge gap. Even a "disappointing" first pick like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has carved out a massive, successful career as a core piece of a contender. He might not be McDavid, but he’s a player every single team in the league would want.
Why "Best Player Available" is a Trap
Teams often talk about taking the "Best Player Available" (BPA). It sounds smart. In practice, it's how you end up like the Edmonton Oilers of the early 2010s—collecting high-end forwards like Pokémon cards while your defense is a literal sieve.
The Oilers took Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Nail Yakupov in three straight years. All forwards. It took another decade and a guy named Connor to actually fix the culture.
The nhl number one picks aren't just players; they are assets. Sometimes, the best move isn't even keeping the pick. But no GM has the guts to trade the #1 overall because if that kid becomes a superstar elsewhere, the GM is getting fired. Guaranteed.
What Really Defines a Success?
Is it a Stanley Cup? Is it a Hall of Fame jacket?
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Honestly, it’s about context. Rick DiPietro is often called a bust because of his massive contract and the injuries that derailed him. But for a few years there, he was actually a very good goaltender. Was he worth the first overall pick over Dany Heatley or Marian Gaborik? Probably not. But he wasn't a "bad" hockey player.
Then you have guys like Joe Thornton. He was traded away by the team that drafted him (Boston) before he even hit his prime. He went on to become one of the greatest playmakers in the history of the sport in San Jose. Was he a success for Boston? No. Was he a success for the league? Absolutely.
Practical Insights for the Modern Fan
If you're following the draft or cheering for a team that's currently "tanking" for a top spot, keep these things in mind:
- Ignore the first 100 games. Most nhl number one picks don't find their true ceiling until age 21 or 22.
- Look at the "D+2" year. The second year after being drafted is usually when you see the real trajectory. If they haven't made a jump by then, that's when you can start to worry.
- Size matters for timing. Smaller, skilled forwards (like Patrick Kane) often adapt faster than big, lanky defenders or power forwards.
- System over skill. A top pick sent to a team with zero veteran leadership (like the old Sabres or Coyotes) is going to struggle way more than a kid sent to a stable environment.
The NHL is a hard league. It’s faster and more physical than it has ever been. We’re asking teenagers to solve problems that veteran millionaires couldn't handle.
Next time your team lands a top pick, celebrate. It’s a huge win. But maybe give the kid a second to unpack his bags before you start measuring him for a statue outside the arena.
The best way to evaluate a top pick is to look at how they influence the game when they don't have the puck. Are they cheating for offense? Or are they doing the "boring" stuff that wins games? That's the difference between a player who puts up empty stats and a player who actually changes a franchise's destiny.
Check the development path of the last five picks. You'll notice that the ones who were allowed to fail early without being crucified by the media are the ones who are currently leading the league in scoring.
Patience is a boring scouting report, but it’s the only one that actually works.