Honestly, if you watched the news lately, you’d think New Jersey was on the verge of a total political flip. People were talking about the "red wave" reaching the Jersey Shore, and for a minute there, the polls actually made it look like it might happen. But then the actual results of the NJ governor’s race 2025 hit the wire on November 4th, and the reality was a lot more complicated—and a lot bluer—than the pundits predicted.
Mikie Sherrill didn't just win; she kind of crushed it.
The final tally put Sherrill at 56.9% of the vote, while Jack Ciattarelli, making his third run for the office, landed at 42.5%. That’s a roughly 14-point margin. To put that in perspective, Phil Murphy only beat Ciattarelli by about 3 points back in 2021. Everyone expected a nail-biter because the 2024 presidential results in New Jersey were tighter than usual, but the Garden State decided to go its own way this time.
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Why the NJ governor’s race 2025 went the way it did
A lot of folks were certain that high property taxes and the general "cost of living" crisis would hand the keys to the GOP. You can’t blame them. The average property tax bill in New Jersey officially topped $10,000 recently. That’s a brutal number for any family to swallow. Ciattarelli hammered this point home every single day, promising to cap property taxes and cut state spending by 30%.
But Sherrill played a different game. She didn't ignore the "affordability" problem—she just reframed it. Instead of just talking about taxes, she talked about "costs." It sounds like the same thing, but for voters, it hit differently. She focused on prescription drugs, childcare, and the Child Tax Credit.
Basically, while Jack was talking about the government's budget, Mikie was talking about the kitchen table budget.
There was also the "Trump factor." In a state where 51% of voters in some polls said they wanted a governor who would "stand up" to the administration in Washington, Sherrill’s background as a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor made her look like the perfect foil. She leaned into it. Hard. Every time Ciattarelli tried to talk about local transit, the Democrats reminded everyone that he had the President’s endorsement. In a deep blue state like New Jersey, that’s a heavy anchor to carry, even if you’re a moderate Republican like Jack.
The candidates who didn't make the cut
Before we got to the Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli showdown, the primaries were a total zoo. On the Democratic side, you had big names like Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City’s Steven Fulop, and Congressman Josh Gottheimer.
- Mikie Sherrill: 34.0%
- Ras Baraka: 20.7%
- Steve Fulop: 16.0%
- Josh Gottheimer: 11.6%
Sherrill managed to build a coalition of suburban moms and moderate professionals that the others just couldn't touch. Over on the Republican side, Ciattarelli had to fend off a challenge from radio host Bill Spadea, who was running much further to the right. Jack took nearly 68% of that primary vote, which gave him a strong mandate from his party, but it might have forced him to lean into certain national issues that eventually hurt him in the general election.
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The issues that actually moved the needle
If you ask ten people in Jersey what they care about, nine of them will say "money." But the NJ governor’s race 2025 showed that "money" means different things to different people. For the voters in Morris and Monmouth counties, it was about the SALT deduction and property taxes. For people in Essex and Hudson, it was about the skyrocketing cost of rent and the fact that NJ Transit fares went up again.
Energy was another weirdly huge issue.
You had this massive debate over offshore wind. The Murphy administration had pushed it hard, but the new administration in D.C. started blocking permits. Ciattarelli wanted to "kill" the wind farms and pivot to nuclear and natural gas to lower utility rates. Sherrill, meanwhile, pivoted to "community solar" and putting panels on landfills and parking lots. It was a classic Jersey brawl: idealism vs. pragmatism, though both sides claimed they were the ones being practical.
Then there was the "referendum" aspect.
A lot of analysts viewed this race as a temperature check for the country. If a Republican could win—or even come close—in New Jersey, it would mean the Democrats were in huge trouble for the 2026 midterms. Since Sherrill won by a larger margin than Murphy did, the narrative has flipped. Now, people are looking at Sherrill as a potential blueprint for how Democrats can win back the "forgotten middle class" without losing their progressive base.
Breaking down the turnout
One thing that surprised everyone was the turnout. Usually, these "off-off year" elections (when there's no President or Congress on the ballot) are ghost towns at the polls. But 2025 saw a turnout of about 51.4%. That’s the highest it’s been for a governor’s race since the 90s.
Women voters were the engine here.
According to Quinnipiac polling, women backed Sherrill 57% to 37%. That’s a massive 20-point gap. Men actually favored Ciattarelli (50% to 43%), but they couldn't make up the difference. Sherrill also did incredibly well with younger voters. People under 40 went for her by a nearly 35-point margin in some surveys. If you’re a Republican strategist looking at those numbers, they’re pretty terrifying. It shows that the GOP’s gains in 2024 might have been a bit of a fluke, or at least highly dependent on who is at the top of the ticket.
What happens next?
So, Sherrill is set to be sworn in on January 20, 2026. She’s making history as the first female Democratic governor in the state's history and the first female veteran to lead any U.S. state. But the honeymoon is going to be short.
She’s inheriting a state with a $10,000 average tax bill and a looming transit funding crisis. Her running mate, Dale Caldwell, will be the first-ever Lieutenant Governor who isn't also a Secretary of State or a career politician, coming from a background as a university president. They’ve promised a "comprehensive strategy" to close healthcare coverage gaps if federal Medicaid funding gets cut, but that takes money—money the state doesn't necessarily have lying around.
If you’re a New Jersey resident or just someone watching the political tea leaves, here are the things you should actually be doing to stay ahead of the changes:
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- Watch the state budget in June: This will be Sherrill's first real test. Look for whether she actually expands the Child Tax Credit as promised or if the "affordability" talk hits the reality of a deficit.
- Monitor the special election for Sherrill's House seat: Since she resigned from Congress to take the Governor's mansion, her 11th District seat is up for grabs. This will be another huge indicator of whether the suburban "blue wall" is holding.
- Check your utility bills this summer: With the battle over offshore wind and the grid under pressure from new AI data centers, energy costs are the sleeper issue of 2026.
- Follow the NJ Transit funding debate: If the state doesn't find a permanent dedicated funding source for trains and buses, the "affordability" crisis is only going to get worse for commuters.
The NJ governor’s race 2025 wasn't just another election. It was a clear signal that while New Jerseyans are frustrated with the cost of living, they aren't necessarily ready to throw out the entire Democratic playbook—especially when the alternative feels too tied to national political figures they don't trust.