Manhattan has a way of tricking you. You walk out of a subway station in Midtown thinking it's a mild afternoon, and two blocks later, a wind tunnel between skyscrapers hits you so hard it feels like the Arctic. If you’ve been looking at the ny manhattan weather forecast for this week, you know we’re in for one of those classic New York swings.
It’s Wednesday night, January 14, 2026. Right now, it’s a damp, cloudy 42°F. It feels a bit colder, maybe 39°F, thanks to that 77% humidity clinging to the brickwork. But don't get used to it. The city is about to pivot.
The Immediate Outlook: A Sharp Descent
Honestly, Thursday is going to be a wake-up call. We just came off a high of 51°F today, which felt almost misplaced for mid-January. But a cold front is moving through tomorrow morning.
By the time you're grabbing coffee on Thursday, January 15, the high will only struggle to reach 40°F. The real story isn't the thermometer, though; it's the wind. We’re looking at sustained southwest winds at 17 mph, but the National Weather Service is flagging gusts up to 30 mph.
That "downsloping" wind off the hills to the west sometimes keeps us a few degrees warmer than the suburbs, but once that sun sets? Forget about it. We’re dropping to 20°F tomorrow night. Basically, if you aren't wearing a proper windbreaker or a heavy wool coat, the cross-streets are going to be brutal.
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That Weekend Snow Threat
Everyone wants to know if it's actually going to stick. New Yorkers have a love-hate relationship with snow—it’s beautiful for exactly twenty minutes before it turns into that gray, slushy "street pudding" at the corner of every crosswalk.
Saturday, January 17, is the day to watch. The current ny manhattan weather forecast shows a 65% chance of snow during the day. The high is 39°F, which is dangerously close to that rain-snow line.
- Saturday Morning: Likely starting as a mix or straight snow.
- Saturday Afternoon: Temperatures hover just enough that we might see a transition to rain or just very wet, heavy slush.
- Accumulation: High uncertainty here. Since the ground has been relatively "warm" from today’s 51-degree peak, don't expect a blizzard. It’s more likely to be a messy coating.
By Sunday, the high drops again to 33°F. We might see some lingering snow showers in the afternoon, but the real Arctic air hasn't even arrived yet.
The Deep Freeze: Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Beyond
If you’re planning to be out for the holiday on Monday, January 19, prepare for true winter. This is where the forecast gets serious.
We are looking at a deep upper-level trough settling over the East Coast. This isn't just a "chilly" day; it’s a sustained freeze. Monday’s high is only 32°F, and it plummets to 16°F at night. Tuesday is even worse—a projected high of only 23°F.
In a city of concrete and glass, that kind of cold lingers. The heat in older Manhattan apartments will be clanking away, and the wind chill will likely stay in the single digits. This is the "arctic air funnel" that the meteorologists at the KOKX office (NWS New York) have been tracking.
Why Manhattan Weather is Different
There’s a reason your phone’s weather app might say one thing while the street feels like another. It’s the "Urban Heat Island" effect, sure, but it’s also the geometry.
Manhattan is an island. We have the Hudson on one side and the East River on the other. In the winter, those water bodies can sometimes keep the tip of the island a degree or two warmer than, say, the Bronx or Westchester. But those same rivers also provide the moisture for the "nor'easters" that dump snow on us.
Then you have the canyons. A 15 mph wind in a park is a breeze. A 15 mph wind on 6th Avenue is a gale. The buildings compress the air, speeding it up—the Venturi effect. If you’re checking the ny manhattan weather forecast, always add a "wind tax" to the temperature if you’re walking near the tall glass towers of Hudson Yards or the Financial District.
Practical Steps for the Week Ahead
Don't get caught off guard by the drop-off tomorrow. Here is how to actually handle this forecast:
- Layers for Thursday: You’ll want a shell that breaks the wind. 17-20 mph sustained winds will cut through a loose knit sweater like it’s not even there.
- Waterproof Boots for Saturday: Even if we only get an inch of snow, the "slush puddles" at the curbs will be six inches deep. Don't wear suede.
- Drip Your Pipes: If you’re in one of those charming but drafty pre-war walk-ups, Monday and Tuesday nights (16°F and 15°F) are cold enough to cause issues.
- Watch the Saturday Night Refreeze: With a low of 32°F on Saturday night after a day of snow/rain, Sunday morning will be a skating rink. Watch your step on the subway stairs.
The rest of the month looks to stay cold, with another potential system around January 24. For now, enjoy the 40s while they last tonight. The real January is coming.