Politics in the Buckeye State used to be the gold standard for bellwethers. If you wanted to know who’d win the White House, you looked at Ohio. But by the time the Ohio 2022 Senate race rolled around, things had shifted. The state felt different. It was redder, sure, but it was also caught in a tug-of-war between old-school blue-collar roots and a new, sharp-edged brand of populism.
Honestly, the whole thing felt like a movie script. On one side, you had Tim Ryan, a long-term Congressman who basically lived and breathed the "working man" persona. On the other, JD Vance—a Marine veteran and venture capitalist who had literally written the book on Appalachia’s struggles.
They were fighting for the seat left open by Rob Portman. Portman was a traditional, business-friendly Republican. Replacing him wasn't just about a vote in D.C.; it was about the soul of the GOP in a post-Trump world.
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The Primary That Almost Broke the Internet
Before the general election even started, the Republican primary was a total bloodbath. You've got to remember how crowded it was. We’re talking about a seven-person race that cost over $66 million. That’s a record for Ohio.
Candidates were tripping over each other to prove they were the "Trumpiest." Josh Mandel and Mike Gibbons almost got into a physical fight during a debate. Like, actually nose-to-nose, yelling. It was wild.
For a long time, JD Vance was trailing. He was the "Hillbilly Elegy" guy who had previously been a "Never-Trump" conservative. He’d once called Trump "cultural heroin." People haven't forgotten that. But then, everything changed on April 15, 2022. Donald Trump endorsed him.
Suddenly, Vance went from a distant third or fourth to the frontrunner. He ended up winning the primary with 32.2% of the vote. Josh Mandel followed with 23.9%, and Matt Dolan, the only candidate who didn't go all-in on the 2020 election claims, pulled 23.3%.
The Strategy: Ryan’s Blue-Collar Gamble
Tim Ryan knew he couldn't win as a typical "San Francisco Democrat." Ohio doesn't play that. So, his campaign for the Ohio 2022 Senate race was a masterclass in distancing.
He ran ads where he agreed with Trump on trade. He talked about "China, China, China" constantly. He spent a staggering $57.58 million. That’s nearly four times what Vance raised. Ryan was everywhere. You couldn't turn on a TV in Columbus or Cleveland without seeing him in a Carhartt jacket talking about manufacturing.
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"The last thing that the United States Senate needs is another millionaire who got funded by a billionaire," Ryan famously said, poking at Vance’s ties to Peter Thiel.
But while Ryan was winning over some suburbanites, he was losing the ground game in the places that used to be his bread and butter.
By the Numbers: How the Map Flipped
When the dust settled on November 8, 2022, the results were closer than many expected, yet perfectly in line with Ohio’s rightward tilt. Vance won with 53.03% to Ryan’s 46.92%.
A 6.1-point margin.
If you look at the county map, Ryan actually did something impressive. He flipped four counties that Portman had won in 2016:
- Summit (Akron)
- Montgomery (Dayton)
- Hamilton (Cincinnati)
- Lorain
But Vance did the unthinkable. He won Mahoning and Trumbull counties. These are the hearts of the Mahoning Valley—Ryan’s home turf. These were places that stayed blue for decades. Vance flipped them by leaning into the populist energy that had been building since 2016.
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Vance’s campaign wasn't just about big rallies. He focused on the "fentanyl coming across the southern border" and "rising costs." He tied Ryan to President Biden at every turn. In a year where inflation was the top concern for 46% of Ohioans, that "Biden-Ryan" link was a political anchor that Ryan just couldn't shake.
What Most People Get Wrong
There’s this idea that Vance only won because of Trump. While the endorsement was the "V-6 engine" that got him through the primary, the general election was more about demographic shifts.
White working-class voters without a college degree have moved almost entirely into the GOP column in Ohio. Ryan tried to get them back with his "worker-first" rhetoric, but the culture gap was too wide. Voters were worried about "preserving democracy" (mostly Democrats at 30%) versus "inflation" (mostly Republicans at 62%).
Vance also had some serious backup. While he only raised $15.6 million personally, the Senate Leadership Fund—associated with Mitch McConnell—dumped about $30 million into the race in the final stretch. Ryan was outraising Vance on paper, but the outside groups balanced the scales.
Why This Race Still Matters
The Ohio 2022 Senate race was a preview of the future. It showed that a Republican could win even if they were significantly outspent, provided they had the right ideological alignment with the base.
Vance didn't just hold the seat; he became a leading voice for the "New Right." His victory paved the way for his eventual rise to the Vice Presidency in 2025. It also signaled the end of an era for "Blue Dog" Democrats like Ryan in statewide Ohio politics.
If you're looking at what happened, it wasn't a fluke. It was a realignment.
Actionable Insights for Political Observers
- Watch the Margins, Not Just the Map: Ryan’s ability to flip suburban counties like Hamilton and Montgomery suggests that while Ohio is "red," the suburbs are still a massive battleground for future races.
- Fundraising Isn't Everything: Being outspent 4-to-1 didn't stop Vance. In modern politics, a strong national endorsement and targeted outside spending can neutralize a candidate's individual fundraising disadvantage.
- Cultural Connection over Policy: Tim Ryan’s policy platform was very similar to what used to win in Ohio (pro-union, pro-manufacturing), but Vance’s focus on cultural identity and populist grievances resonated more with the current electorate in the Mahoning Valley.
- The Trump Effect is Real but Specific: The endorsement was critical for the primary, but Vance still had to run a disciplined general election campaign to win over moderate voters who were skeptical of his past comments.
To get a full picture of Ohio's political landscape, look into the 2024 results where Bernie Moreno defeated Sherrod Brown, effectively cementing the state's transition to a Republican stronghold.