If you’ve ever sat in the stands at the Palogrande in Manizales, you know that the air is a bit thinner and the stakes always feel slightly heavier than they should for a regular-season game. Football in Colombia is rarely predictable. But when it comes to Once Caldas vs Santa Fe, the history books and the betting lines usually end up in the trash by the 60th minute.
It’s one of those weirdly persistent rivalries. It doesn't have the "classic" label of a Medellin or Cali derby, but for the fans in Manizales and Bogotá, it’s a tactical chess match that often turns into a street fight.
Honestly, looking at the current state of the Apertura 2026, both teams are under immense pressure. We aren't just talking about three points; we’re talking about identity. Santa Fe is trying to maintain that "Lion" status they reclaimed with their 2025 title run, while Once Caldas is desperate to prove they aren't just a mid-table ghost of their 2004 Libertadores glory.
The Weight of the Palogrande Factor
Manizales is a tough place to play. Period.
The altitude isn't quite as punishing as La Paz, but for teams coming from the coast or even the slightly lower Bogotá, it matters. In the upcoming clash on January 25, 2026, Once Caldas has to lean on this. Last year, they had some truly ugly performances at home—fans even called for Hernán Darío Herrera’s head after a lackluster 1-0 win against Pasto.
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But against Santa Fe? The energy changes.
Historically, Once Caldas has found ways to frustrate the Bogotá giants. However, the recent trend is a bit worrying for the Blanco Blanco. If you look at the 2025 season, Santa Fe took the lion's share of points in their head-to-head meetings, including a crucial 2-1 win where they basically bullied the Caldas midfield.
Hugo Rodallega and the Santa Fe Resilience
You can't talk about Once Caldas vs Santa Fe without mentioning the man who seems to age in reverse: Hugo Rodallega.
The guy is 40. He’s been through every war in football. In the 2025 final, he was literally in tears, barely able to walk due to an injury, and he still stayed on the pitch to score the winner. That is the kind of psychological wall Once Caldas is running into.
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Santa Fe, under Jorge Bava, has developed this "never dead" mentality. They don't mind losing the possession battle. In fact, in their 2-1 victory over Caldas last September, they only had 43% of the ball. They just wait for you to make a mistake in the transition.
Once Caldas, on the other hand, tends to get caught in "possession for the sake of possession." They'll pass the ball 400 times, but if Dayro Moreno—who is also defying time at 40—doesn't get a clear look at the goal, they look lost.
Why the Tactical Setup is a Nightmare for Caldas
Basically, Santa Fe plays a very compact 4-2-3-1 or a 4-4-2 that transitions into a low block the second they lose the ball.
- They squeeze the space between the lines.
- They force Once Caldas to play wide.
- They trust their center-backs (like Victor Moreno, who has a knack for scoring headers against Caldas) to win everything in the air.
For Once Caldas to win this, they have to stop relying on "miracle" goals from Dayro. They need Mateo Zuleta and Juan Cuesta to actually challenge the fullbacks. Last time out, Cuesta had a great shot saved by Andrés Mosquera, but those chances were few and far between.
Breaking Down the "Dayro vs. Hugo" Narrative
It’s kinda poetic, isn’t it? Two of the greatest strikers in Colombian history, both 40 years old, still leading the lines for their respective clubs in 2026.
Dayro Moreno is chasing every record in the book. He’s the soul of Once Caldas. But he’s often isolated. When the midfield fails to bridge the gap, Dayro starts dropping deep to find the ball, and that’s exactly where Santa Fe wants him—30 yards away from the goal.
Hugo Rodallega is a different beast. He’s more of a focal point. He doesn't need ten chances; he needs one half-chance from a set-piece or a defensive lapse. Santa Fe’s strategy is basically "Keep it tight, wait for Hugo." It’s simple, and it’s frustratingly effective.
What to Watch for in the January 2026 Clash
If you're looking for a high-scoring blowout, you're probably watching the wrong league. Once Caldas vs Santa Fe is usually a "grind it out" affair.
The oddsmakers are leaning slightly toward a draw or a narrow Santa Fe win, given their form over the last 18 months. But never count out Once Caldas when their backs are against the wall at home. They are currently sitting 9th in the early standings, while Santa Fe is surprisingly lower in 17th after a slow start to the new year. This makes Santa Fe dangerous—they are a wounded animal right now.
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Specific details to monitor:
- The First 15 Minutes: Once Caldas loves to start fast at the Palogrande to take advantage of the visiting team's lungs adjusting to the air.
- Set Pieces: Santa Fe scored via a corner header in their last major win against Caldas. Caldas's marking in the box has been, well, questionable lately.
- VAR Interventions: Let’s be real, Colombian football and VAR have a complicated relationship. Expect at least one long delay that kills the rhythm of the game.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you're following this match, don't just look at the scoreline. Watch the movement of Robert Mejía in the Caldas midfield. If he’s allowed to dictate the tempo, Santa Fe will struggle. If Yílmar Velásquez and the Santa Fe pivot can shut him down, it’s going to be a long night for the Manizales faithful.
- Check the starting lineups for Alejandro García: If he’s starting, Once Caldas has more creativity but less defensive cover.
- Watch the weather: A rainy afternoon in Manizales turns the Palogrande pitch into a slide-and-glide surface that favors the more physical Santa Fe defenders.
- Monitor the bench: Santa Fe has better depth. If the game is tied at the 70th minute, Bava has the tools to change the game; Herrera often lacks those options at Caldas.
Keep an eye on the official DIMAYOR updates as we approach the January 25 kickoff. This isn't just a game; it's a litmus test for who is actually ready to contend for the 2026 stars.