You’ve probably heard the rumors floating around Salem or seen the headlines about a "billion-dollar surplus." Well, the numbers are officially in. After months of speculation and varying forecasts from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), we finally have a solid grasp on the oregon kicker 2025 estimate and what it means for your bank account.
It’s about $1.41 billion.
That is the confirmed revenue surplus for the 2023-2025 biennium. While it’s not the record-shattering $5.6 billion we saw in the previous cycle, it’s still the fourth-largest kicker in state history. If you live in Oregon and paid income taxes last year, you’re likely getting a slice of that pie. But don't expect a check in the mail.
The Kicker Math: How Much Is Yours?
Most people make the mistake of thinking this is a flat payment. It’s not. The kicker is a percentage based on your 2024 tax liability. Specifically, the Oregon Department of Revenue has certified the 2025 kicker percentage at 9.863%.
Think of it this way: for every dollar you owed the state in taxes for the 2024 tax year (before credits and withholding), you get nearly 10 cents back as a credit on your 2025 return.
Let’s look at a quick example. If your total Oregon tax liability on your 2024 return was $5,000, your credit would be roughly $493.15. If you owed $10,000, you’re looking at nearly $986. It scales. This is why higher earners tend to see much larger "kicker" amounts, a point that often sparks heated debates in the legislature about income inequality.
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How to Find Your Number
To get your specific oregon kicker 2025 estimate, you need your 2024 tax return (the one you filed in early 2025). Look at Form OR-40, Line 24. That is your "tax before credits."
- Grab that number from Line 24.
- Multiply it by 0.09863.
- That’s your credit.
The state also provides a "What’s My Kicker?" tool on the Revenue Online portal. You just need your name, Social Security Number, and filing status. Honestly, it’s way easier than doing the long-form math yourself, especially if your filing status changed between years.
Why the Oregon Kicker 2025 Estimate Changed
Economists are basically professional guessers. I say that with respect, but the "kicker" only exists because the state's revenue forecast was wrong by more than 2%. Back in late 2024, the newly appointed State Chief Economist, Carl Riccadonna, signaled that revenues were coming in higher than expected due to strong corporate profits and a resilient labor market.
By November 2025, the OEA officially certified the $1.41 billion surplus.
There was some drama earlier in 2025 when initial forecasts suggested the kicker might be slightly higher—closer to $1.7 or $1.8 billion. However, a slight cooling in personal income tax collections and some shifts in corporate tax filings toward the end of the biennium pulled the final number down to that 9.863% mark.
It’s a Credit, Not a Check
This is the part that trips everyone up. You aren't getting a separate check in the mail like you might have in the 1990s. The law changed in 2011.
The kicker is a refundable tax credit.
When you file your 2025 Oregon tax return (which you’ll do in early 2026), you claim this credit. If you owe the state $500 but have a $500 kicker credit, you owe $0. If you were already getting a $1,000 refund and you have a $500 kicker credit, your refund becomes $1,500.
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The "Debt" Catch
There is a catch. If you owe the state money—back taxes, overdue child support, court fines, or even certain school loans—the Department of Revenue will snatch that kicker credit faster than you can say "surplus." They apply the credit to your debt first. Whatever is left over, if anything, comes to you.
Can You Give It Away?
Oregon is one of the few states that lets you basically "check a box" to donate your entire kicker to the State School Fund. In 2000, voters added this to the state constitution. If you don't need the cash and want to help fund K-12 education, you can elect to donate the whole thing. Just be aware: it’s all or nothing. You can't give half to the schools and keep half for a new mountain bike.
Key Deadlines and Eligibility
Not everyone gets the kicker. To be eligible for the 2025 credit, you must:
- Have filed a 2024 Oregon tax return. If you didn't file last year, there's no "tax liability" to base the percentage on.
- Have had a tax liability in 2024. If you paid $0 in taxes after all your credits, 9.863% of zero is... well, zero.
- File a 2025 Oregon tax return. Even if you don't make enough money to have to file this year, you must file to claim the kicker.
The Department of Revenue started accepting 2025 returns in January 2026. If you file electronically and choose direct deposit, you’ll see that money much faster than if you file a paper return. Paper returns are notoriously slow, often taking until April or later to process.
The Future of the Kicker
There’s a lot of talk in the Oregon State Legislature about repealing or modifying the kicker. Senate Bill 573 was introduced in 2025 with the goal of ending these surplus refunds and redirecting the money into a rainy-day fund or specific public services like housing.
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Critics argue the kicker makes it impossible for the state to plan long-term budgets. Supporters say it’s a vital check on government spending—if the state takes more than it said it needed, it has to give it back. For now, the kicker remains part of the Oregon Constitution, so any major change would likely have to go back to the voters.
Actionable Steps for Taxpayers
Don't leave this money on the table because of a filing error. Here is exactly what you should do right now:
- Locate your 2024 Form OR-40. You need Line 24. If you used a tax preparer or software like TurboTax, download the PDF of your "Form Instructions and Schedules."
- Use the Online Calculator. Go to the Oregon Department of Revenue website and search for "What's My Kicker." It takes 30 seconds and eliminates the risk of bad math.
- File Electronically. Use Direct File Oregon if you qualify for a free filing option. It’s the most direct way to ensure the credit is applied correctly.
- Check for Offsets. If you suspect you have outstanding state debt, call the Department of Revenue’s collections line to see if your kicker is likely to be intercepted.
The oregon kicker 2025 estimate is no longer just a guess—it's a 9.863% reality. Make sure you claim it when you file your taxes this season.