You’ve seen the memes. Oxford in January is basically a collection of limestone buildings and grey skies, right? Well, yes. But honestly, it’s a lot more complicated than just "cold and wet."
Right now, as of late Friday night on January 16, 2026, we’re looking at 43°F outside. It feels more like 39°F though. Why? Humidity is sitting at a staggering 96%. That’s the kind of damp that gets into your bones no matter how many layers of wool you’re wearing.
People think the weather forecast in oxford is a predictable snooze-fest. It isn’t. We just finished dealing with the literal "weather bomb" known as Storm Goretti about a week ago. That system dropped the pressure by 36 millibars in a single day. Think about that. Trees down, travel warnings, the works. If you think a winter in the Shire is just light drizzle and tea, you haven't been paying attention.
Why the weather forecast in oxford is actually a lie
The "official" forecast says light rain. It says 48°F for tomorrow. But anyone who lives here knows the microclimates near the River Cherwell and the Thames (or the Isis, if you’re being posh) play by their own rules.
You’ll be walking down the High Street and it’s fine. Then you hit the Meadow and suddenly the wind speed, currently a deceptive 6 mph from the southeast, feels like a personal attack.
📖 Related: Hill's Adult Cat Food: What Most People Get Wrong About Science Diet
The numbers for the week ahead
Let’s look at what the charts are actually telling us for the next few days. Don't expect a tan.
- Saturday, Jan 17: It’s going to be cloudy. Not "pretty" cloudy, just... grey. High of 48°F, low of 42°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Light rain is back. A 20% to 25% chance of precipitation throughout the day.
- Monday, Jan 19: This is your "warm" day. It’ll hit 49°F. It’s still going to rain, but hey, it’s almost 50 degrees!
- Tuesday, Jan 20: The wind picks up to 14 mph. If you’re cycling to the Headington hospitals or the Science Area, hold onto your hat.
Basically, it’s a marathon of 40-something-degree days with varying degrees of "wetness." The humidity is the real killer. It’s been hovering near 100% and won’t really drop. That’s why the "feels like" temperature is almost always lower than the number on your phone.
The weird truth about Oxford's rainfall
Most people assume Oxford is one of the wettest places in the UK. Kinda isn't. According to the Radcliffe Observatory—which, by the way, has been keeping records since 1815—Oxford averages about 676 mm of rain a year. That’s actually less than many parts of the country.
The problem is how it rains. It’s that fine, misty drizzle. It doesn't wash the city; it just coats it in a layer of moisture that never evaporates because there are only about 2 hours of sunshine a day this month.
What you actually need to do
Stop checking the generic weather apps. They’re usually pulling data from Brize Norton or even Heathrow, which doesn't account for the damp sinkhole that is the city center.
Invest in a proper waterproof. Not a "water-resistant" fashion jacket. A real one. Because the 25% to 45% rain chance predicted for the middle of next week is almost a guarantee that you'll get splashed by a bus on St Aldates.
Check the river levels. If you’re parked near the river or commute through low-lying areas like Botley, keep an eye on the Environment Agency alerts. After the record rainfall on January 8-9, the ground is saturated. Even a "light rain" forecast can lead to standing water on the roads.
Mind the fog. There were major warnings just yesterday about visibility dropping below 100 meters. With temperatures dropping toward 37°F by next Friday, that morning mist is going to turn into a treacherous commute.
Essentially, the weather forecast in oxford for the rest of January 2026 is a steady grind of grey. Dress for the humidity, not just the temperature, and don't trust a "dry" forecast for more than twenty minutes.