Occidental Petroleum—everyone just calls it OXY—is doing something weird. Honestly, if you’ve been watching the ticker today, January 18, 2026, you might be wondering why the stock is sitting at $42.74 while the rest of the energy sector is acting like it's on a caffeine high. Scotiabank just dropped their price target to $46.00. Not a massive crash, sure, but it’s a nudge down from $47.00 that has some people checking their brokerage apps twice.
It's been a wild start to the year. Basically, the biggest news that everyone is still chewing on is the massive $9.7 billion deal where Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway officially closed the acquisition of OxyChem.
Think about that for a second.
OXY just handed over its chemical crown jewel to its biggest fan. Why? To kill debt. The company is desperate to get its principal debt below that $15 billion mark they promised after the CrownRock merger. Selling OxyChem gave them a $6.5 billion cash injection specifically to pay down those loans. It’s a classic "sell the furniture to pay the mortgage" move, but in this case, the furniture was a high-performing business.
What’s Actually Happening with OXY Stock News Today
The market is currently a bit of a mess for OXY. While oil prices have been bouncing around due to tension in Iran and some massive political shifts in Venezuela—seriously, the ouster of Maduro earlier this month sent shockwaves through the Permian Basin players—OXY is lagging. It’s down about 1% today.
You’ve got a real split in the room. Mizuho is out here shouting about a $64 price target, while Wells Fargo is looking at the floor with a $40 target. It's confusing.
The Buffett Factor and the 2026 Transition
January 2026 isn't just another month for OXY; it’s the month Greg Abel officially takes the wheel at Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett is 95 now. He's stepping back. For years, OXY was the "Buffett stock," but now investors are squinting to see if Abel shares the same romantic vision for Vicki Hollub’s strategy.
Berkshire still owns more than 28% of the company. That’s a massive safety net, but it also means the stock doesn't move like a normal equity. It’s heavy. It’s anchored.
Why the Price Target Cut Matters
Scotiabank isn't the only one being cautious. The consensus is firmly stuck at "Hold."
- Institutional ownership: 88.7% (The big players are staying, but they aren't exactly buying more).
- Dividend check: A $0.24 quarterly dividend was just paid out on January 15. If you held the stock through December 10, you got paid.
- Insider moves: Director William Klesse actually bought 5,000 shares at $38.98 last month. Seeing an insider put up nearly $200k of his own money is usually a good sign, or at least a sign he thinks the floor is in.
The Carbon Capture Gamble (1PointFive)
If you talk to the bulls, they don't care about oil prices as much as they care about the "Stratos" facility. This is OXY’s big bet on Direct Air Capture (DAC). Just a few days ago, on January 13, their subsidiary 1PointFive inked a deal with Bain & Company to sell 9,000 metric tons of carbon removal credits.
It’s small potatoes right now, but it's the proof of concept everyone is waiting for.
Honestly, the problem is that OXY is trading at a P/E ratio around 30. That is expensive. Like, "tech stock" expensive. For an oil company, that’s usually a red flag unless the market believes the carbon business is going to explode. The industry average is closer to 13.7x. You’re paying a premium for a future that hasn't fully arrived yet.
OXY Stock News Today: The Bear Case
Let’s be real. If oil prices dip toward $60 per barrel—which Morningstar thinks might happen due to a global supply glut—OXY is going to feel it more than others. Their debt is lower, but it’s still there.
👉 See also: Oregon State Income Tax Calculator: Why Your Refund Might Be Bigger (or Smaller) Than You Think
Wait.
I should mention that they also just revised their crude transportation contracts. That’s supposed to save them $400 million annually starting this year. It’s these little boring "back-office" savings that might actually keep the dividend safe if the price of crude falls off a cliff.
What You Should Actually Do
If you're looking at OXY today, don't expect a moonshot. This is a slow-burn story about a company trying to reinvent itself as a carbon manager while pumping enough oil to keep the lights on.
- Watch the $40 support level. If it breaks $40, the "Buffett floor" might be thinner than we thought.
- Check the February 18 earnings. That’s the next big catalyst. They’ll report Q4 2025 results then, and we’ll see exactly how much of that OxyChem cash actually went to the debt pile.
- Keep an eye on the DAC permits. Any news about the Stratos facility hitting operational milestones is more important for the long-term price than a $2 fluctuation in Brent crude.
OXY is basically a high-yield savings account with a lot of geopolitical drama attached to it right now. It's not the sexy pick it was in 2022, but with Berkshire still sitting on 265 million shares, it’s not going away either.
Next Steps for Investors:
Review your exposure to the energy sector and check if you're over-leveraged in "carbon-transition" plays. If you are looking for a quick flip, OXY probably isn't it. But if you're tracking the February 18 earnings call, pay close attention to the updated production guidance for the Permian Basin, as the recent operational efficiencies there—like cutting well costs by 13%—are the real drivers of their free cash flow.