Honestly, if you've ever lived in Oyster Bay, you know the drill. You check the forecast in the morning, see "partly cloudy," and by 2:00 PM you're watching a wall of sea fog roll in off the Sound like something out of a horror movie.
Oyster Bay is basically a weather anomaly. Because we're tucked into that deep inlet on the North Shore, the standard New York City forecast usually doesn't apply to us. While the city might be seeing a mild drizzle, we often deal with "micro-climates" that can turn a backyard BBQ into a frantic dash for the mudroom in seconds.
What’s Happening Right Now: The Sunday Outlook
Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, things are looking pretty damp and chilly. As of mid-afternoon, the current temperature in Oyster Bay is holding steady at 33°F, though it definitely feels more like 27°F thanks to a 7 mph wind coming in from the northeast.
We’re currently seeing light rain, but don’t let that fool you. The humidity is sitting at a heavy 90%, and as the sun starts to dip, that rain is expected to transition.
The Immediate 24-Hour Breakdown
- Today (Day): We've got a 100% chance of precipitation. It started as rain, but we're moving into light snow as the afternoon progresses. High of 33°F.
- Tonight: Expect snow showers. The chance of precipitation stays high at 87%, with a low of 28°F.
- The Wind Factor: That northeast wind is the culprit here. It’s pulling in moisture from the Sound, which is why we’re seeing a higher chance of snow than some of the inland towns like Hicksville or Syosset.
The "Sound Effect": Why Oyster Bay Forecasts Are Different
Most people get this wrong: they think because we're on Long Island, we just follow the "LI weather" block. Not quite. The Long Island Sound acts as a giant heat sink in the winter and a refrigerator in the spring.
In January, the water is usually warmer than the air. When a cold north wind hits that relatively warm water, it picks up moisture and dumps it right on the hills of Oyster Bay and Mill Neck. This is why you'll often see two inches of slush in Oyster Bay Harbor while the South Shore is bone dry.
Is This a "Normal" January?
Historically, January is our coldest month. We usually average highs of 37°F and lows of 26°F. Today’s high of 33°F is actually a bit below the average, which explains why that rain is turning into snow so quickly.
We’re also in the middle of a weak La Niña year. If you follow experts like Vanessa Murdoch or the team at NY NJ PA Weather, they’ve been pointing out that this season is leaning toward "Miller-B" type storms. These are the ones that redevelop over the coastal waters. For a town literally named after a bay, those are the storms that hit us the hardest.
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What to Expect This Week (January 19–25)
If you’re planning your commute or just trying to figure out when to salt the driveway, here’s the gist of the upcoming week:
Monday, Jan 19 (MLK Day): The snow clears out, leaving us with a mix of sun and clouds. It’s going to be brisk, though. High of 31°F and a low of 16°F. If you’re heading out for the holiday, dress for the wind—it’s going to bite.
Mid-Week Chill: Tuesday and Wednesday are looking like the coldest stretch. We’re talking highs in the mid-20s on Tuesday. This is that classic "Deep Freeze" January weather where the ground finally hardens up.
The Next Mess: Keep an eye on Thursday, Jan 22. There’s a frontal system moving through that looks like it could bring a wintry mix or sleet. These "shoulder" temperatures (right around 32°F-35°F) are the most dangerous for Oyster Bay drivers because the hills on Berry Hill Road and 106 turn into ice skating rinks.
Practical Advice for Oyster Bay Residents
Look, weather apps are great, but they often miss the nuances of the North Shore. Here is how you should actually handle the weather forecast Oyster Bay NY provides:
- Watch the Tides: High tide today was around 10:14 AM. When we get heavy rain or snow during a high tide, the storm drains near the waterfront can back up. If you park near the train station or the Western Waterfront, keep an eye on the water levels.
- The "North Shore" Rule: If the forecast says "chance of flurries" for NYC, assume we’re getting at least an inch. The elevation change from the water up to the village adds just enough lift to squeeze out extra moisture.
- Humidity is the Enemy: With 91% humidity today, the "feels like" temperature is the only number that matters. Damp cold gets into your bones way faster than dry cold.
- Marine Prep: If you have a boat in the water or at a local yard, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday afternoon. Northeast winds are shifting to Northwest tonight with gusts up to 20 knots. Secure your covers.
The bottom line? We're looking at a messy Sunday evening followed by a very cold start to the work week. Get the shovel ready for the slush tonight, but don't expect to use it much past Monday morning.
Your Action Plan
- Before 6:00 PM Today: Salt your walkways. The transition from rain to snow means a layer of ice will likely form underneath any accumulation.
- Monday Morning: Give yourself an extra 15 minutes for the commute. Even if the roads look clear, the "black ice" on the shaded backroads of Oyster Bay Cove is a real threat when the temp hits 16°F tonight.
- Check Your Tech: If you use a local weather station (like the ones at Sea Cliff Elementary or Oyster Bay Station), check their live feeds rather than a national app for the most accurate wind chill readings.