If you’ve spent any time on FinTwit or lurking in the r/PLTR subreddit lately, you know that the Palantir Technologies stock price isn't just a number on a ticker—it's basically a religion for some and a total enigma for others. Honestly, the way people talk about this company is wild. You’ve got the "Palantirians" who think Alex Karp is a literal wizard, and then you’ve got the Wall Street old guard who keep waiting for the "inevitable" crash that never quite seems to stick.
Right now, as we sit in early 2026, the stock is hovering around the $170.97 mark. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Just last week, it was pushing $182, and then it took a breather. But if you step back and look at the 52-week range—from **$66.12 to $207.52**—you realize that anyone who bought the dip last year is probably smiling pretty hard right now.
The Valuation Headache (Is It Actually a Bubble?)
Let's address the elephant in the room: the valuation. If you look at the P/E ratio, it’s sitting somewhere north of 390. Yeah, you read that right. Most value investors would look at that and run for the hills. It’s "egregious," according to some analysts at The Motley Fool. They’ve been calling it a hybrid of a meme stock and a growth stock for years.
But here’s the thing. Palantir isn't just some hype-driven startup anymore.
Since it was added to the S&P 500 back in September 2024, the game changed. It’s a profitable machine now. In the third quarter of 2025, they pulled in $1.18 billion in revenue. That’s a 63% jump year-over-year. When a company is growing that fast while maintaining a "Rule of 40" score of 114%, traditional valuation metrics sorta break.
Why the Bears Keep Getting It Wrong
Short sellers have been trying to time the Palantir peak forever. Michael Burry—yeah, the "Big Short" guy—reportedly took a massive short position late last year. He put about $9 million into put options, betting that the AI bubble would burst in 2026.
Alex Karp’s response? He basically called the move "bat s*** crazy" on CNBC.
Karp’s argument is simple: Palantir builds products that actually work. While other companies are just "AI washing" their marketing decks, Palantir is actually in the trenches. They’re helping companies like Wendy’s manage supply chain disasters in minutes instead of days. They’re helping the Department of Defense with actual, real-world battlefield intelligence.
The Commercial Explosion
For a long time, Palantir was seen as just a "defense contractor." Not anymore. The U.S. commercial side of the business is absolutely exploding.
In Q3 2025, their U.S. commercial revenue grew 121% year-over-year. That is insane. They closed over 200 deals worth at least $1 million. The secret sauce seems to be their "Bootcamps." Instead of a six-month sales cycle with boring PowerPoint presentations, they just bring engineers in and show the customer how to solve their own data problems in five days.
It’s a "show, don't tell" strategy that’s working.
Breaking Down the Revenue Split
- U.S. Commercial: Roughly $397 million (growing 121%).
- U.S. Government: Roughly $486 million (growing 52%).
- International: Still a bit of a struggle in Europe, but the U.S. momentum is carrying the team.
The government business is the bedrock. It’s stable. It’s sticky. But the commercial side? That’s the rocket fuel. Total contract value (TCV) for the commercial segment hit $1.31 billion recently, up 342%. That’s a lot of future revenue already locked in.
💡 You might also like: Shell Dividend: Why the Royal Dutch Legacy Still Matters to Your Portfolio
What to Watch for in 2026
We have earnings coming up on February 2, 2026. This is going to be a massive "put up or shut up" moment. If they beat the $1.33 billion revenue guide for Q4, we might see another leg up toward that **$235 price target** some analysts like Tyler Radke at Citigroup have set.
But there are risks.
Honestly, the macro environment is shaky. If the broader market takes a hit, high-multiple stocks like PLTR are usually the first ones to get sold off. We saw it in 2022 when the stock crashed 65% while the S&P 500 only dropped 19%. If you’re playing with money you need for rent next month, this probably isn't the stock for you. It’s volatile.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at the Palantir Technologies stock price and wondering what to do, here's how to think about it like a pro:
- Don't FOMO at the Top: The stock has a habit of "mooning" after earnings and then slowly bleeding out for a few weeks. If it’s trading near its 52-week high of $207, maybe wait for a pullback.
- Focus on AIP Momentum: The Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is the real story here. Watch the customer count growth. If that starts to slow down, the "growth story" might be hitting a wall.
- Watch the TCV: Revenue is backward-looking. Total Contract Value is forward-looking. If TCV keeps hitting records, the stock has a floor.
- Ignore the "Meme" Label: Yes, retail investors love it. Yes, it’s on WallStreetBets. But look at the institutional ownership. Since the S&P 500 inclusion, big funds have to own it. That provides a level of institutional support that wasn't there three years ago.
The reality is that Palantir has become the "OS for the modern enterprise." Whether you think the price is too high or not, the company’s impact on how businesses use data is undeniable. Just keep your position size reasonable and be ready for the swings.
Next Steps for You:
- Review the Q4 Earnings: Set a reminder for February 2nd. Watch for the U.S. commercial revenue growth percentage specifically.
- Check the RSI: If you're a technical trader, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 43. That’s pretty neutral—not overbought, not oversold.
- Audit Your Portfolio: Ensure you aren't over-leveraged in high-growth tech, as the 2026 market has already shown signs of sector rotation.