In the chaotic world of modern sports card collecting, few names carry the sheer gravity of Patrick Mahomes. If you’ve spent any time looking at eBay auctions or scouring local card shows, you already know the vibe. People treat a high-grade Patrick Mahomes rookie card like a bar of gold.
But here’s the thing. Most people are chasing the wrong stuff.
They see a $4.3 million sale for a 1/1 National Treasures Platinum Shield and think every piece of shiny cardboard from 2017 is a retirement plan. Honestly, it’s not that simple. The market is nuanced, specifically in 2026 as the hobby has matured past the "junk slab" era. You’ve got to know the difference between a mass-produced base card and a true short-print "grail" before you drop a single dollar.
The National Treasures Giant and the Reality of RPAs
Basically, the 2017 Panini National Treasures #161 is the king. It’s the "Rookie Patch Autograph" (RPA) that everyone dreams of owning. These are limited to just 99 copies for the base version, and they feature a piece of player-worn jersey alongside a crisp, on-card autograph.
Is it expensive? Yeah. A BGS 9.5 copy of the /99 RPA recently moved for around $60,000 to $70,000.
But you don't need a second mortgage to get in on the action. There are actually 51 different cards from Mahomes' rookie year that feature both a patch and an autograph. Some, like the 2017 Panini Illusions First Impressions, can occasionally be found for under $2,000 depending on the grade. Still pricey, sure, but a far cry from the seven-figure headlines that dominate the news.
The interesting part about 2017 National Treasures is that the patches aren't "game-worn." They are "player-worn." It’s a subtle distinction that bothers some purists, but clearly hasn't stopped the values from skyrocketing.
Why the Prizm Silver is the "People's Choice"
If National Treasures is for the whales, Panini Prizm is for the rest of us.
Sorta.
The 2017 Panini Prizm Patrick Mahomes #269 is arguably his most recognizable card. What most people get wrong here is the "Silver" versus "Base" distinction. In 2017, Panini didn't actually make a "base" Prizm for the rookies in the traditional sense; the Silver Prizm acts as the baseline for high-end collectors.
Check the population reports. A PSA 10 Silver Prizm is a beast. We're talking about a card that has consistently stayed in the $4,000 to $6,000 range even when the rest of the market cooled off. It’s the liquidity that makes it special. You can sell a Mahomes Prizm in ten minutes. Try doing that with an obscure 1/1 from a low-tier brand.
Spotting the "Fake" Value: Donruss vs. Optic
Don't get these two confused.
- Donruss Rated Rookie: This is the paper version. It’s classic. It has that iconic blue logo.
- Donruss Optic: This is the "chromium" version. It’s shinier, sturdier, and worth way more.
A standard Donruss Rated Rookie in a PSA 10 might run you about $1,000. The Optic version? You're looking at double that, easily. The "Optic" finish is just more durable, which means there are fewer high-grade copies floating around relative to the demand.
Honestly, the paper Donruss cards are notorious for "corner wear." If you're buying one raw—meaning it isn't in a plastic slab yet—be incredibly careful. One tiny white speck on a corner can turn a $1,000 card into a $150 card overnight.
The Hidden Gems Nobody Talks About
While everyone is fighting over Prizm and Optic, some collectors are quietly buying up the 2017 Panini Select.
Select is weird because it has different "levels"—Concourse, Premier Level, and Field Level. The Field Level is the rarest of the base tiers. If you find a Mahomes Field Level Silver Prizm, you've found something truly special. It’s often overlooked by casual fans who just search for "Prizm," but seasoned investors know the Select Field Level pop counts are often much lower.
Then there’s the XRC.
Technically, Mahomes has a 2016 Panini Select XRC redemption. These were cards you had to trade in a "mystery" coupon for. Because it was released before his official 2017 rookie year, it’s a "pre-rookie" card. It’s a niche market, but for the "completionist" collector, it’s the ultimate flex.
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How to Avoid Getting Scammed
The "reprint" market is scary right now.
You’ll see listings on eBay for $20 labeled "RP" or "Reprint." They look real in photos. They even have the refractor shine sometimes. But they are worthless. If a deal for a Patrick Mahomes rookie card looks too good to be true, it’s 100% a fake.
Always look for the third-party grading (TPG) slab. PSA, BGS (Beckett), and SGC are the big three. If the card is in a slab from a company you’ve never heard of, treat it like a raw card. Actually, treat it worse than a raw card. People often put trimmed or altered cards into "basement" slabs to trick buyers.
The "Super Bowl" Price Cycle
There is a very specific rhythm to Mahomes card prices.
Data from the last few years shows a massive spike every January. As the Chiefs inevitably march through the playoffs, the FOMO (fear of missing out) kicks in. Prices peak about three days before the Super Bowl.
Then, win or lose, they drop in March.
If you're looking to buy, the "dead zone" of May through July is your best friend. The hype has died down, people are focusing on baseball or the NBA playoffs, and you can often snag a 10% to 15% discount just by being patient.
What to Do Next
If you’re serious about picking up a Mahomes rookie, don’t just go blindly into an auction.
Start by deciding on your budget. If you have $50, look for a 2017 Panini Score or Prestige. They are "entry-level" but still legitimate rookies. If you have $1,000, look for a PSA 9 Donruss Optic or a PSA 10 paper Donruss.
Verify the certificate number on the PSA or Beckett website before you pay. It takes five seconds and can save you thousands of dollars. Look at the "sold" listings on eBay, not the "asking" prices. Anyone can ask for $10,000; what matters is what people actually paid yesterday.
Once you have the card, store it in a cool, dry place. UV light is the enemy of autographs. If you bought a signed card, keep it out of direct sunlight or the ink will fade into a sad, ghostly version of itself.
Focus on the "Blue Chips." Stick to Prizm, Optic, Select, or Donruss for the best long-term stability. The market for Patrick Mahomes rookie cards is essentially a proxy for his legacy, and as long as he’s chasing Brady’s ring count, these cards are the most significant "stock" in the sports world.