He was supposed to be the savior. The one who finally got Penn State over the hump, past the Ohio State wall, and into the promised land of a national title. Instead, Drew Allar’s time in Happy Valley ended with a thud and a cart ride.
Football can be cruel like that.
One minute you’re a 5-star recruit from Medina, Ohio, with a frame that makes NFL scouts drool; the next, you’re watching your head coach, James Franklin, get fired less than 24 hours after you shattered your ankle in a loss to Northwestern. It’s a lot to process. Honestly, if you look at the raw numbers, Allar’s career wasn't even bad. He finished with over 7,400 passing yards and 61 touchdowns against just 13 interceptions. Those are "good college quarterback" numbers. But at a place like Penn State, "good" usually isn't enough when you're billed as a generational talent.
The Projection vs. The Reality
Most people look at a 6-foot-5, 235-pound kid who can flick a ball 60 yards without breaking a sweat and assume the rest will just happen. It didn't. Allar’s 2024 season was actually his peak. He threw for 3,327 yards and 24 touchdowns, and for a second there, it looked like offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki had unlocked the beast. They beat SMU. They beat Boise State. The vibes were high.
Then came 2025.
The drop-off was weirdly sudden. Through the first few games of his senior year, Allar looked hesitant. He was overthinking. Coach Franklin even mentioned it, saying Allar was so far ahead in his credits he only had one class left in the fall. Maybe he had too much free time to sit in the film room and get into his own head. Or maybe the "easy throws" just weren't easy anymore. By the time he went down with that lower-leg injury in October 2025, he had only managed 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final campaign.
The scouting community is still split on what happens next. Some guys, like Mel Kiper Jr., had him as a top-tier prospect before the wheels fell off. Now? You’re looking at a guy who might slide to the 4th or 5th round of the 2026 NFL Draft. It's a massive gamble for any team.
What the Tape Actually Says
If you've ever actually sat down and watched a full Penn State game instead of just the highlights, you've seen the "Allar Experience." It’s a rollercoaster.
- The Cannon: He makes throws into windows that don't exist. That 23-yard TD to Trebor Peña against Villanova in 2025? Absolute lasers.
- The Concrete Feet: He’s not a "statue," but he's not exactly Lamar Jackson. He lost 10 pounds before his senior year to "enhance mobility," but he still looked uncomfortable when the pocket collapsed.
- The Big Game Bug: This is the one that kills his legacy. In the "marquee" games against teams like Ohio State, Oregon, and Michigan, Allar’s completion percentage plummeted to 50%. He went 0-for-lifetime in the games that mattered most to the fans in the stands.
The NFL Draft Conundrum
So, what do you do with a kid who has a $100 million arm and the footwork of a middle-schooler? NFL scouts are torn. A veteran scout recently told ESPN that Allar isn't a "swashbuckler." He doesn't play loose. He plays like he’s afraid to make a mistake, which is ironic considering he was historically good at protecting the ball—ranking first all-time at PSU in interception percentage at 1.19%.
But protecting the ball isn't the same as winning the game.
His pro comparison is all over the map. Daniel Jeremiah has brought up Joe Flacco, which makes sense. Big, sturdy, big arm, moves a little bit but mostly wants to stand back there and rip it. Others see a higher ceiling, like Trevor Lawrence, but that feels like a stretch right now. The reality is probably closer to a Jake Locker or Drew Lock type—a guy who has every physical tool but can't quite get the mental processing to match the speed of the professional game.
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The NIL Powerhouse
Even if the on-field results were a mixed bag, Allar’s bank account did just fine. He was one of the faces of the NIL era, inking a massive deal with Nike in September 2025. Between Nike, T-Mobile, and EA Sports, his valuation was sitting around $3.5 million. He’s proof that in the modern era, you don’t have to win a Natty to be a global brand.
What’s Next for Allar?
The injury changes everything. If he can’t work out at the Combine or his Pro Day, he’s purely a "projection pick." Some QB-needy team in the middle rounds is going to see that frame and that arm and think, "I can fix him."
Actionable Insights for Following the Allar Story:
- Watch the Medicals: His draft stock depends entirely on the recovery of that left ankle. If he's not 100% by March, expect him to fall into Day 3.
- Keep an eye on the Rams or Lions: These are teams with aging or established starters where Allar could sit for two years without any pressure to start. He needs high-end QB coaching that he simply never got in State College.
- Don't ignore the "Football Character": Despite the boos at Beaver Stadium, every coach and teammate has raved about his leadership. In a draft where "makeup" matters, Allar still has a lot of fans inside NFL buildings.
Ultimately, Drew Allar will be remembered as a "what if." What if he had a better receiver corps? What if he had left for the draft after 2024? What if he hadn't stayed for the collapse of the Franklin era? We'll never know, but some NFL GM is about to bet their job that they have the answer.