Honestly, if you're looking at the sky in Playa del Carmen right now, you’re probably seeing a bit of a mixed bag. Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, the vibe is mostly cloudy with the temperature sitting right at 80°F. It feels slightly stickier than that, though—more like 84°F—thanks to that signature Riviera Maya humidity which is hovering around 70%.
You've probably heard that January is the "perfect" time to visit. And while that's mostly true, today is a reminder that the tropics don't always follow the brochure. We’re looking at a 36% chance of rain throughout the day. It’s not a total washout, but you might want to keep a light poncho in your bag if you're headed to Fifth Avenue.
✨ Don't miss: Why the Millennium Biltmore Hotel LA Haunted Rumors Just Won't Die
The January Surprise No One Expected
Usually, the "deal" with the Caribbean in the winter is simple: you pay the high-season premium and in return, you get crystal-clear water. But 2026 is throwing us a curveball. Just a few days ago, specifically on January 8, an "atypical" surge of sargassum seaweed slammed into Playa Mamitas.
We’re talking 25 tons of the brown stuff in a single day.
It’s weird because sargassum is usually a summer problem. Experts from the University of South Florida (USF) are basically saying the "winter die-off" of seaweed failed in late 2025. This means the water might not be that pristine electric blue you saw on Instagram last year. If you're here right now, you'll see cleanup crews working overtime to clear the patches.
The wind is currently coming from the North at 13 mph, which is actually helping keep the air feeling a bit fresher, but it’s also what’s pushing those uneven patches of seaweed toward the shore.
Why the Forecast Isn't Just "Sunny and 80"
Most weather apps give you a single icon. In Playa, that’s almost always a lie.
✨ Don't miss: Where the Pacific Ocean meets the Atlantic Ocean: What’s Actually Happening in those Viral Videos
- Light Rain Risk: Today’s daily forecast actually peaks at a 65% chance of light rain during the daytime.
- Cooler Nights: We’re looking at a low of 64°F tonight. That’s "Mexican winter" for you—you’ll definitely want a hoodie for your beachfront dinner.
- The UV Trap: Even with the clouds, the UV index is at a 3 or 4. You’ll get burned before you even finish your first margarita if you aren't careful.
What's Coming Up This Week?
If you're planning your excursions, Monday and Tuesday (Jan 19-20) are looking like the winners. The rain chance drops significantly to 10%, and we’ll see some "partly sunny" skies.
But hold on. Thursday, January 22, is looking like a bit of a mess. There’s a 75% chance of scattered thunderstorms with the humidity spiking to 84%. If you were planning on a catamaran trip to Cozumel, you might want to push that to Friday or Saturday when the sun starts to dominate again and highs climb back up to 83°F.
📖 Related: Why Your Hello Kitty Neck Pillow is the Only Travel Gear That Actually Works
Basically, the weather right now is a transition phase. We’re oscillating between that crisp "Norte" (the cool northern winds) and the standard tropical heat.
Survival Tips for the Current Conditions
- Pivot West: If the sargassum is thick at your resort, head to a Cenote. They’re freshwater, inland, and 100% seaweed-free.
- The "Norte" Layer: Bring a light jacket. I know, you came for the heat, but 64°F with a sea breeze feels much colder than you think.
- Check the Live Cams: Don't trust a forecast from three days ago. Conditions here flip in hours. Use sites like Beachday or local hotel webcams to see if the beach is clear before you make the trek.
Current water temperatures are still a very comfortable 82°F, so once you find a clear patch of sand, the swimming is actually fantastic. Just keep an eye on those clouds—they’re moving fast today.
Actionable Insights:
- If you’re in town today, aim for indoor activities or shopping on Quinta Avenida during the mid-afternoon when the rain chance is highest.
- Book your Tulum or Chichen Itza tours for Monday or Tuesday to avoid the storm system moving in later this week.
- Always check the "Sargassum Inundation Risk" maps provided by NOAA if you are dead-set on a beach day; the conditions vary wildly from one beach to the next.