You've probably seen the headlines. Poland just wrapped up one of the most intense, nail-biting political showdowns in its modern history. Honestly, if you were looking at the Poland president election polls back in early 2025, you might have thought the result was a foregone conclusion. Most experts did. The data looked solid. But then, reality happened.
Politics in Warsaw isn't just about who sits in the palace; it’s about a deep, structural tug-of-war between two completely different visions of what Poland should be. On one side, you had the "European dream" led by the liberal-leaning government camp. On the other, a fierce, national-conservative push to keep things "traditionally Polish."
Why the Polls Didn't See the Nawrocki Surge Coming
Early in the year, Rafał Trzaskowski—the suave, pro-EU Mayor of Warsaw—seemed like he was coasting. Most Poland president election polls from January and February 2025 showed him with a comfortable lead, often hovering around 35% to 37% in the first-round projections. His main rival, Karol Nawrocki, was an independent historian backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party. At the time, he was struggling to break 25% in many surveys.
But polls are just snapshots. They aren't destiny.
📖 Related: Why Live Chicago Doppler Radar Still Misses the Lake Effect
What really shifted the ground was the mobilization of voters outside the big cities. While Trzaskowski was taking selfies in Warsaw and Kraków, Nawrocki was hitting the small towns. He campaigned on "normality," a word that resonated deeply with people tired of the constant bickering in parliament. He even leaned into his ties with the U.S. political right, which, surprisingly to some, actually helped him.
By the time the first round hit on May 18, 2025, the gap had vanished. Trzaskowski took 31.36%, but Nawrocki was right on his heels with 29.54%. It was a shock. The "sure thing" was suddenly a coin flip.
The Breakdown of the First Round Results
The first round was a crowded field with 13 candidates, the most since the mid-90s. While the big two dominated, the "spoilers" actually decided the mood of the country:
- Sławomir Mentzen: The far-right tax advisor and beer entrepreneur was the TikTok king of the election. He pulled 14.81%, proving that younger voters are moving away from the centrist establishment.
- Grzegorz Braun: Another firebrand who nabbed 6.34%, further pulling the electorate toward the right.
- Szymon Hołownia: The Speaker of the Sejm and former TV star really felt the sting of "incumbency fatigue," dropping to a mere 4.99%.
The Runoff That Broke the Internet (and the Pollsters)
If the first round was a wake-up call, the June 1 runoff was a full-blown earthquake. Every major polling firm, including Ipsos and ewybory.eu, had it neck-and-neck. On the night of the election, the initial exit polls actually suggested Trzaskowski had won by a hair—about 0.6%. He even gave a victory speech.
Then the actual votes from the rural eastern provinces started rolling in.
Karol Nawrocki eventually won with 50.89% of the vote. Trzaskowski finished with 49.11%. That’s a difference of roughly 370,000 votes in a country of 29 million eligible voters. It’s basically a rounding error in the grand scheme of things, but in politics, it's everything.
What caused this "upset"?
Kinda simple, really. The ruling coalition under Donald Tusk has had a rough go of it. They’ve been trying to "restore the rule of law," but to a lot of regular people, that just looks like more legal bickering and stalled promises. There was a specific frustration over the failure to liberalize abortion laws—a major campaign promise that got stuck in the gears of the coalition.
Progressives felt let down by Trzaskowski’s caution, while conservatives were energized by Nawrocki’s promise to veto anything he deemed too "radical."
The "Cohabitation" Nightmare
So, where does that leave Poland now? Basically, in a state of "legislative paralysis."
You've got a Prime Minister (Tusk) who wants to integrate closer with the EU, and a President (Nawrocki) who has basically said "no thanks" to the European Green Deal and the new Migration Pact. Because the President in Poland has a powerful veto that requires a three-fifths majority to override, Nawrocki can effectively shut down any law he doesn't like.
And he probably will.
Nawrocki has already hinted that he’ll refer major judicial reforms to the Constitutional Tribunal. This isn't just boring legal stuff; it affects everything from how much you pay for energy to what rights you have in court.
What Most People Get Wrong About Polish Voters
There’s this myth that Poland is split between "young, liberal city-dwellers" and "old, conservative villagers."
That's outdated.
The 2025 data shows something much weirder. Mentzen and the far-right actually did incredibly well with young men in cities. Meanwhile, some of the older generation, remembering the "bad old days" of authoritarianism, stuck with the liberals. It’s not an age gap anymore; it’s a worldview gap.
People are also wrong if they think this was just about Russia or Ukraine. Honestly, both main candidates were pretty much on the same page regarding defense spending. The real fight was about "sovereignty" versus "integration." Do we follow Brussels, or do we go our own way?
Actionable Insights for Following Polish Politics
If you're trying to keep up with what happens next, don't just look at the raw numbers. Here is how to actually read the room in Poland over the next few months:
- Watch the Vetoes: The first five bills Tusk sends to Nawrocki’s desk will tell you if this is going to be a "civilized disagreement" or a total war.
- Monitor the "Confederation" Party: Sławomir Mentzen’s 14% wasn't a fluke. His party is now the kingmaker. If they align with Nawrocki, the government's agenda is dead on arrival.
- Check Local Sentiment: The next major hurdle is the 2027 parliamentary elections. If the government can't fix the "cost of living" issues (which Nawrocki campaigned on), they are in serious trouble.
- U.S. Relations: Nawrocki is very pro-Trump. Watch how the relationship between Warsaw and Washington changes compared to Warsaw and Berlin. It's going to be a bumpy ride for the EU.
The polls for the Poland president election told us the race would be close, but they couldn't capture the sheer exhaustion of the electorate. Poland is tired of the "Total Opposition" vs. "Total Government" dynamic. Nawrocki won because he managed to convince just enough people that he was the "safe" choice to keep the government in check. Whether that holds true remains to be seen.