The NBA draft is usually a game of "what if." What if that skinny wing grows two inches? What if that guard actually learns to shoot? But as we stare down the barrel of the projected nba draft order for 2026, the vibe is different. It’s less "what if" and more "how soon can they start?"
Honestly, NBA scouts are basically drooling over the top of this board. We aren't just talking about one franchise-altering kid like Victor Wembanyama. We’re talking about a three-headed monster that has teams like the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards checking the lottery odds every single morning. If you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in college gyms lately, you're missing a shift in the league's power structure.
The Big Three: A Tier of Their Own
Right now, if you ask ten different scouts who goes number one, you’ll probably get three different answers. It’s that tight.
Darryn Peterson is currently the guy to beat at most outlets. The Kansas freshman is a 6-foot-6 scoring machine who plays with a poise that makes you forget he’s barely legal to vote. He’s been dealing with some annoying hamstring and quad issues lately—sat out an overtime period against TCU just last week—but nobody is worried. When he’s on, he’s a three-level scorer who looks like a hybrid of Devin Booker and a young Kobe. He’s averaging nearly 22 points a game and shooting 40% from deep. That’s not normal for a freshman in the Big 12.
Then there’s AJ Dybantsa. If you want pure, raw upside, this is your guy. He’s 6-foot-9, playing for BYU, and basically moves like a guard. He’s currently on a tear with ten straight games of 20+ points. Some people think he’s the clear #1 because of the physical tools—a 7-foot wingspan and the ability to just rise up and fire over anyone.
And we can’t forget Cameron Boozer. Yeah, the son of Carlos Boozer. But he’s not just a "legacy" pick. He might be the most "pro-ready" player we’ve seen in years. He’s leading Duke in almost every category, averaging 22.9 points and nearly 10 boards. He doesn’t have the flashy "look at me" athleticism of Dybantsa, but he just wins. He’s efficient. He’s smart. He’s a walking double-double who probably won’t ever bust.
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The Lottery Shakeup: Who’s Moving Up?
While the top three are locked in their own private battle, the rest of the projected nba draft order is getting weirdly crowded.
- Caleb Wilson (North Carolina): A lot of scouts have him at #4. He’s a pogo stick. Think of a versatile face-up four who can switch onto anyone defensively. His shot is still a work in progress, but the defensive ceiling is through the roof.
- Kingston Flemings (Houston): This kid has been the surprise of the season. Playing for Kelvin Sampson isn't easy, but Flemings has taken the reins of a top-tier Houston team and shown he’s a true floor general.
- Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville): He’s making a case for the best pure point guard in the class. He’s quick, shifty, and has that deep range that modern NBA offenses crave.
- Nate Ament (Tennessee): He’s the wildcard. He isn't as polished as the "Big Three," but his ceiling is arguably just as high. He’s long, fluid, and starting to put on the muscle needed for the pro game.
What the Bottom of the Lottery Looks Like
It’s not just about the superstars. This draft has some serious depth in the mid-to-late lottery. You’ve got guys like Jayden Quaintance at Kentucky, who is a defensive nightmare. He’s coming off an ACL tear from high school but his length and instincts are still elite.
Then there's the international flavor. Hannes Steinbach at Washington (via Germany) and Karim Lopez from the NZ Breakers are names appearing more and more on big boards. Lopez is being called the best prospect in Mexican basketball history. That’s a heavy tag, but his ball skills at 6-foot-8 back it up.
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Real Talk: The NIL Factor
Something nobody talks about enough is how NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) is messing with the projected nba draft order.
In the old days, if you were a projected late first-rounder, you left school immediately to get that guaranteed contract. Now? If a kid can make $800k to stay another year at a big-time program like Kansas or Duke, they might just stay. This is thinning out the 20-40 range. NBA teams are starting to realize that the "safe" college senior might be more valuable than a raw 19-year-old who isn't ready for the bus rides in the G-League.
Why Front Offices are Panicking (In a Good Way)
If you're the Indiana Pacers—who currently hold the worst record and a potential #1 pick—the pressure is immense. Do you take the "safe" bet in Boozer to pair with Tyrese Haliburton? Or do you take the home run swing on Dybantsa?
Front offices are spending more time on "character mandates" than ever before. Scouts are looking at how these kids handle social media, how they treat their teammates when they aren't the primary option, and how they recover from those "NIL-fat" bank accounts.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re trying to track this class, stop looking at just the points per game. Look at:
- Shot Versatility: Can they hit off the move? Peterson's 1.84 points per possession on catch-and-shoot attempts is a 99th-percentile stat. That translates to the NBA on day one.
- Defensive Switchability: Can a big man like Boozer or Wilson stay in front of a shifty guard? The NBA is a pick-and-roll league; if you can't switch, you can't play.
- Usage vs. Efficiency: Dybantsa has high usage, but his efficiency has actually gone up as the season progressed. That’s a massive green flag.
The draft order will shift ten more times before June. Injuries, NCAA tournament collapses, and combine measurements will happen. But the foundation of the 2026 class is set. It’s a group that’s going to redefine the "positionless basketball" era.
Keep a close eye on the mid-major risers. Guys like Bennett Stirtz at Iowa (who came from D-II!) are proving that the path to the league isn't just through five-star recruiting camps anymore. The talent is everywhere, and for the first time in a while, the NBA draft feels like a sure thing.
To get ahead of the curve, start watching tape on the "Big Three" specifically during conference play. This is where the real evaluation happens, away from the cupcake non-conference schedules. Pay attention to how Darryn Peterson handles double teams and whether AJ Dybantsa can maintain his defensive intensity when his shot isn't falling. These are the nuances that will ultimately decide who wears the #1 cap in June.