Honestly, by the time the NFL Draft hits Saturday morning, half the world has stopped paying attention. The big names are gone. The glitz of the first round in Pittsburgh is a memory. But if you’re a die-hard, you know that the rd 4 draft order is where the real GMs make their money. This is where you find your starting guards, your special teams demons, and occasionally, a Pro Bowler that everyone else blinked and missed.
We just wrapped up the 2025 regular season and the Wild Card round, so the board is finally starting to look like something real. People keep looking at the first-round mocks, but the fourth round is a totally different beast. It’s messy. It’s full of traded picks and compensatory math that would make a calculus teacher sweat.
The Las Vegas Raiders are currently sitting at the top of the mountain—or the bottom of the pit, depending on how you view their 3–14 season. Because they have the #1 overall pick, they also hold the pole position for the start of Day 3. But it’s not a straight line from there.
Who Actually Owns the Early Fourth Round?
The order for the teams that missed the playoffs is set in stone. We know the Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals are leading the pack. But the rd 4 draft order gets weird because of how many of these picks have already changed hands.
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You’ve got the Washington Commanders, for instance. They would’ve had a prime spot at the start of the round, but they shipped that pick off to Houston as part of the massive Laremy Tunsil trade. So, while Washington fans are sleeping in on Saturday, Texans fans will be watching their team use Washington's "early" fourth-rounder to snag more depth.
The Chicago Bears are in a similar boat. They traded their fourth-rounder to Kansas City to get Joe Thuney. It’s a classic move: win now, pay later. But when you’re looking at the draft board, it means the Chiefs are effectively "double dipping" in the middle rounds while the Bears are left waiting.
The Current Top 10 Order for Round 4
(Note: This follows the reverse order of the 2025 regular season standings for non-playoff teams.)
- Las Vegas Raiders: Holding steady at the top.
- New York Jets: Looking to rebuild after a disastrous year.
- Arizona Cardinals: Need help basically everywhere.
- Tennessee Titans: Focus is on the trenches.
- New York Giants: Picking at #5.
- Cleveland Browns: They’ve actually got a few extra picks stashed.
- Houston Texans (via Washington): This is the pick from the Tunsil deal.
- New Orleans Saints: Trying to manage a cap nightmare with cheap rookie contracts.
- Kansas City Chiefs (via Chicago): The rich get richer.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Looking for protection for Joe Burrow.
The Traded Pick Chaos
If you try to follow the rd 4 draft order without a spreadsheet, you’re going to get a headache. The NFL is in an era where mid-round picks are treated like currency.
Take the New Orleans Saints. They’ve been wheeling and dealing like crazy. They traded a 2026 fourth-round pick to Denver to get receiver Devaughn Vele. Then, they turned around and picked up a fourth-rounder from Seattle in the Rashid Shaheed trade. It’s basically a game of musical chairs.
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Then you have the Jacksonville Jaguars. They traded their fourth-round pick to the Raiders for Jakobi Meyers. So, when the fourth round starts, the Raiders aren't just picking at the top; they’re also going to be popping up again later in the round with Jacksonville's selection.
It’s also worth watching the Minnesota Vikings. They have a conditional pick situation with the Jaguars involving Cam Robinson. Depending on how many snaps he played (and he played a ton), that fifth-round pick is almost certainly escalating into a fourth-rounder. That shifts the entire back half of the rd 4 draft order because it adds a pick that wasn't there before.
The Compensatory Pick "Wild Card"
Every year, people forget about the compensatory picks until about March. These are the "free" picks the NFL gives out to teams that lost big-time free agents. They are tacked onto the end of rounds 3 through 7.
For the 2026 draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the team to watch here. They are projected to land a massive haul of 12 total picks, and at least one of those is expected to be a fourth-round compensatory selection for losing Justin Fields.
The Philadelphia Eagles are also in the hunt for extra Sunday capital. After the moves they made, they’re projected to have two fourth-rounders—their original one and a compensatory one for losing Josh Sweat.
When these "comp" picks get added, it pushes the start of the fifth round further down. If the NFL awards 32 compensatory picks (the maximum), you usually see about 5 to 8 of those land at the end of the fourth round. This means the "rd 4 draft order" won't just be 32 picks; it’ll likely be closer to 40.
Why the Middle of the Fourth Round is the Sweet Spot
There’s a specific kind of player that falls to this spot. We’re talking about the "high floor, low ceiling" guys. The seniors from Big 10 schools who started for four years but don't have the 4.3 speed that the first round craves.
In 2026, scouts are already pointing at the interior offensive line and safety classes as being "flat." That’s scout-speak for "the guy you get in the second round isn't much better than the guy you get in the fourth."
If you're the Dallas Cowboys, who are currently slotted in the middle of the pack after a 7–9–1 season, that fourth-round pick is vital. They’ve historically been great at finding value here. Think about guys like Dak Prescott (a fourth-rounder!) or more recently, the depth pieces that keep their defense afloat.
Teams with Multiple 4th Round Assets
- Kansas City Chiefs: They have their own and Chicago's.
- Houston Texans: They have Washington's and potentially their own (depending on late-season moves).
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Expecting that comp pick to hit.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Always hoarding mid-round assets.
The Impact of the 2025 Regular Season Finish
The back end of the rd 4 draft order is still a moving target. We know the 18 teams that missed the playoffs, but the final 14 spots depend on who wins the Super Bowl in February.
Right now, teams like the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks (both 14–3) are looking at picking very late in the fourth round. If you’re a Seahawks fan, you’re basically looking at the very end of the Saturday morning session.
The Steelers just got locked into the #21 spot after losing to the Texans in the Wild Card. This means in the fourth round, they will pick 21st in the "base" order, before the compensatory picks are added.
Strategy: How GMs Approach This Order
When a GM looks at the rd 4 draft order, they aren't looking for a savior. They’re looking for a "red-chip" player—someone who can play 20% of snaps as a rookie and 80% by year three.
If you’re the Jets at the top of the fourth, you’re looking for a "starter in waiting." If you’re the Bills at the end of the round, you’re looking for a gunner on the punt team who might develop into a linebacker.
The biggest mistake fans make is thinking the draft is over after Friday night. In reality, about 30% of NFL starters were picked on Day 3 or went undrafted. The rd 4 draft order is the gateway to that value.
Actionable Next Steps for Fans
- Track the "Comp" Projections: Keep an eye on sites like Over The Cap. They usually nail the compensatory pick formula by late February, which will tell you exactly how many extra picks are being added to the fourth round.
- Watch the Senior Bowl: The fourth round is almost exclusively "Senior Bowl guys." Players like the ones from smaller schools who show out in Mobile, Alabama, usually end up being the targets in this specific range.
- Monitor Conditional Trades: Check the snap counts for players like Cam Robinson or Bryce Huff. Those conditions often determine whether a pick stays in the fifth round or jumps into the fourth-round order.
The order will shift one last time after the Super Bowl. Until then, keep an eye on those teams with multiple picks—they’re the ones who will control the board when Saturday morning rolls around.
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