If you’ve been glued to mortgage charts for the last few months, you’ve probably noticed something weird. The headlines scream about 30-year rates dropping, but the real action—at least for people who actually want to own their homes outright before they turn 80—is in the 15-year lane. Honestly, refinance mortgage rates today 15 year have settled into a "sweet spot" that hasn't looked this inviting in years.
As of Saturday, January 17, 2026, the national average for a 15-year fixed refinance interest rate is sitting at 5.90%.
That’s a massive psychological hurdle cleared compared to the 7% and 8% nightmare fuel we saw back in late 2023. But here's the kicker: even though the 30-year averages are hovering around 6.56% for a refinance, the 15-year remains the overachiever. It’s consistently about 60 to 70 basis points cheaper. It’s basically the "express lane" of mortgage debt, provided you can stomach the monthly payment.
The Reality of the Numbers Right Now
Let's get into the weeds.
Bankrate’s latest survey of the nation's biggest lenders shows the average 15-year fixed refinance APR at 5.99%. Now, don't get confused by the "interest rate" versus the "APR." The interest rate (5.90%) is the raw cost. The APR (5.99%) includes the junk—the fees, the points, the stuff that makes you grumpy at the closing table.
Why the sudden dip? Well, the Federal Reserve spent most of 2024 and 2025 hacking away at the benchmark rate. We saw a full percentage point cut in '24 and another 75 basis points in '25. Investors are finally breathing. They’re buying 10-year Treasurys, which is the secret engine that actually drives what you pay for your house.
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Here is what the landscape looks like today:
- National Average Interest Rate: 5.90%
- Average APR: 5.99%
- Zillow Average (with points): 5.375%
- Top Tier Lender Offers: As low as 4.75% to 4.80% (if your credit score is basically a work of art)
If you’re sitting on a 7.25% loan from a couple of years ago, you’re looking at a serious win. For a $400,000 balance, dropping from 7.25% to 5.90% isn't just "pizza money" savings. It’s thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
Why 15-Year Rates Are Winning in 2026
Most people are terrified of the 15-year. "The payments are too high!" they yell.
Yeah, they’re higher. But look at the math. If you take a $400,000 loan at today's rates:
On a 30-year fixed at 6.11%, your principal and interest is roughly **$2,427**.
On a 15-year fixed at 5.47%, your payment jumps to $3,262.
That’s an extra $835 a month. Sounds painful, right?
But wait. Over the life of that 30-year loan, you’ll pay $473,000 in interest. On the 15-year? You’ll pay $187,000. You are literally saving $286,000 by being "uncomfortable" for a decade and a half. In this economy, that's the difference between a stressed retirement and a beachfront one.
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Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, mentioned recently that while rates might bounce around the 6% mark for most of 2026, we could see them dip as low as 5.5% if the job market cools. We are in a transition year. Homeowners are starting to wake up from the "lock-in effect" where they felt trapped by their old rates.
What Most People Get Wrong About Refinancing
There’s this weird myth that you have to wait for rates to drop by a full 2% for a refinance to "make sense."
That’s old-school thinking.
In reality, the "break-even point" is the only number that matters. If the cost to close the loan—say, $5,000—is recovered by your monthly savings within 24 months, you should probably do it. Especially with refinance mortgage rates today 15 year being so competitive, that break-even happens faster than you’d think.
Also, people forget about "points." A lot of the rates you see advertised online (like that 5.375% from Zillow) include buying points. That’s just paying interest upfront. If you plan on staying in the house for 10+ years, pay the points. If you might move in three years, keep your cash and take the slightly higher rate.
The "Good Credit" Tax (and How to Avoid It)
If your credit score is 640, you aren't getting 5.90%. You’re probably getting 6.7%.
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Lenders are being picky in early 2026. They’re looking at Debt-to-Income (DTI) ratios more than they used to because property insurance costs have skyrocketed in places like Florida and California. If your insurance premium doubled last year, your DTI is higher, which makes you a "riskier" bet to a bank, even if you’ve never missed a payment.
Before you apply:
- Check your credit report for errors. Seriously. One wrong "late payment" from a Macy's card in 2019 can cost you $50 a month on a mortgage.
- Don't open new credit cards right now. That 10% discount at the furniture store isn't worth a 0.25% hike on your mortgage rate.
- Compare at least three lenders. Navy Federal, Wells Fargo, and local credit unions often have wildly different appetites for risk. Navy Federal, for instance, has been seen offering 15-year terms as low as 4.75% for certain VA streamline products recently.
Is Now Actually the Time?
Morgan Stanley strategists are forecasting that rates might decline slightly in the first half of 2026, maybe hitting 5.50% for the 30-year, but they expect them to climb again in the second half of the year.
Basically, the "wait for 4%" crowd is likely going to be waiting forever. We are returning to a "normal" historical average. The 2% and 3% rates of the pandemic were a glitch in the Matrix. They aren't coming back unless the global economy literally stops.
The risk of waiting is that the housing market might heat up again. If rates drop to 5%, everyone who has been "waiting on the sidelines" is going to rush in. That means more competition, higher home prices, and slower closing times. Refinancing today means you beat the rush.
Actionable Steps for Today
Stop staring at the national average and start looking at your own balance sheet.
- Calculate your break-even: Take your total closing costs and divide them by your monthly savings. If you’re saving $300 a month and costs are $6,000, your break-even is 20 months. If you’re staying for 5 years, it’s a no-brainer.
- Lock your rate early: Mortgage rates can move multiple times a day. If you see a number you like, lock it. Most lenders offer a 30-day or 60-day lock for free.
- Look at a 10-year option: If you’re already 5 years into a 30-year loan, moving to a 10-year might actually keep your payment similar while shaving 15 years off your debt. Today’s 10-year rates are even lower, sometimes touching 5.32% APR.
Refinancing to a 15-year mortgage is a "wealth-building" move, not just a "lower my payment" move. It’s about owning your life sooner. If the numbers work today, don't gamble on what might happen in six months.