You've probably noticed your portfolio looking a bit different lately if you hold the "Big R." Honestly, the Reliance Industries share price has been on a bit of a wild ride to start 2026. After a somewhat brutal first week of the year where the conglomerate shed nearly ₹1.4 lakh crore in market cap, everyone was holding their breath for the Q3 results that dropped on January 16.
The numbers are out. They’re... fine?
Actually, it's a tale of two worlds. While the topline—that's the total revenue—jumped a healthy 11% to ₹2.69 lakh crore, the net profit was basically flat, inching up only 0.56% to ₹18,645 crore. If you’re a shareholder, you might be feeling a mix of "phew" and "is that it?" But as always with Mukesh Ambani’s giant, the devil is in the details, and the market is already chewing on what this means for the stock's next move.
Why Reliance Industries Share Price is Testing Investor Patience
Markets hate uncertainty. Earlier this month, the stock took a hit because of some chatter about Russian crude exposure and a perceived slowdown in retail. But let’s look at the actual trade from Friday, January 16, 2026.
The stock opened at ₹1,458.80 and saw a high of ₹1,480.00 before settling around ₹1,457.90. It’s basically hovering right now.
What’s interesting is the technical setup. Right now, the 200-day moving average (DMA) is sitting at roughly ₹1,433.30. For the chart nerds, that’s a "line in the sand." As long as the Reliance Industries share price stays above that 200-DMA, the long-term "bull case" isn't dead, even if the short-term 50-DMA (around ₹1,532) looks like a mountain to climb.
💡 You might also like: TreeHouse Foods Inc Stock: Why This Boring Company Is Actually Wildly Important
The Energy Engine is Roaring (Again)
Remember when everyone said the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) business was a dinosaur? Well, the dinosaur just grew wings. In the latest Q3 report, O2C EBITDA surged 15% year-on-year.
How?
- Fuel Margins: Higher transportation fuel cracks.
- Ethane Cracking: Favorable economics that basically made production cheaper.
- Operational Flex: They shifted production to where the money was.
Mukesh Ambani was pretty clear about this in the media release. He credited "favorable demand-supply dynamics." Essentially, they’re squeezing more profit out of every barrel while other refiners are struggling with feedstock costs.
Jio and the 500 Million Club
On the digital side, Jio just crossed the 500 million subscriber milestone. That’s massive. But the number I’m looking at is the ARPU—Average Revenue Per User. It grew to ₹213.7. It’s not a huge jump, but it’s moving in the right direction.
Also, can we talk about the "Jio-Gemini" offer? They’re giving eligible 5G users 18 months of Gemini Pro for free. It’s a classic Reliance move: hook them with the ecosystem so they never want to leave. Currently, 5G traffic makes up 53% of their total data usage. They aren't just a phone company anymore; they're a data-hungry AI beast in the making.
The Retail Stumble: Real or Just a Phase?
If there’s a "bumpy patch," it’s definitely in the retail segment. Isha Ambani’s division saw revenue growth of about 8-9%, which sounds good until you realize they used to do 20%+.
Goldman Sachs actually warned about this, citing weak discretionary spending. Basically, people are buying groceries but maybe holding off on that extra pair of sneakers or a new fridge. Reliance Retail is still opening stores—431 new ones this quarter alone—bringing their total to nearly 20,000. But the profit growth here was a modest 3%.
It’s a scale game now. They’ve built the infrastructure; now they need the Indian consumer to start spending like it's 2023 again.
2026: The Year of the "Catalyst"
Brokerages like Morgan Stanley and Jefferies aren't panicking. They’re calling 2026 a "pivotal year." Why? Because several "big bang" events are lined up that could send the Reliance Industries share price into a new orbit.
- The Jio Listing: There’s persistent talk of Jio Platforms spinning off for an IPO by mid-2026.
- New Energy: The Giga Factory in Jamnagar is supposed to start producing battery cells this year. They’ve confirmed there’s no delay, despite some rumors that they were pausing.
- Tariff Hikes: Another round of telecom price increases could be on the horizon to boost that ARPU further.
Morgan Stanley still has a price target of ₹1,847. That’s a significant upside from where we are today.
What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of folks look at the RIL share price and think it's "too slow." They compare it to some mid-cap tech stock that doubled in six months. But you've gotta remember: Reliance is a proxy for the Indian economy.
When the Nifty 50 is cautious—like it was this Friday, closing at 25,694 with just a 0.11% gain—Reliance usually mirrors that sentiment. It's a "heavyweight." It doesn't move like a feather; it moves like a glacier. But when glaciers move, they reshape the landscape.
✨ Don't miss: 1 usd to polish zloty: Why the Rate is Shifting Right Now
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you’re staring at the ticker and wondering what to do, here’s the expert take:
Watch the 200-DMA: If the price dips toward ₹1,430, that has historically been a strong support zone where long-term buyers step in.
Focus on the Spin-offs: The real value in Reliance often comes when they demerge businesses (like they did with Jio Financial Services). If a Jio or Retail IPO becomes official, the "holding company discount" usually disappears, which is great for existing shareholders.
The "New Energy" Timeline: Keep an eye on Jamnagar. The moment they start rolling out battery cells or green hydrogen at scale, the stock stops being a "refining and retail" play and becomes a "green tech" play. That's a different valuation multiple entirely.
Wait for the dust to settle on these Q3 numbers. The market is still digesting the flat profit vs. the strong revenue. If the stock manages to cross and hold above ₹1,500 in the next few weeks, the recent "New Year selloff" will likely be forgotten.
Directly monitor the upcoming announcements regarding the New Energy initiatives and the scale-up of JioAirFiber, which already has over 11.5 million users. These are the small signals that usually precede the big price moves.
🔗 Read more: Dove Beauty Ad Campaign: What Most People Get Wrong
Next Steps for Investors:
- Check your average buy price against the current 200-DMA of ₹1,433.30.
- Review the Q3 segment-wise EBITDA to see if the O2C growth offsets the Retail slowdown in your personal risk assessment.
- Monitor the $1,500 resistance level; a sustained break above this could signal the end of the January correction.